Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders Prediction, 10/5/2023 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders

Date: Thursday, October 5, 2023

Location: FedExField in Landover, MD

TV: PRIME VIDEO

Odds/Point Spread: Commanders (-4.5)

Total/Over-Under: 43

The Chicago Bears (0-4) are en route to FedExField on Thursday where they will go up against the Washington Commanders (2-2). Washington is 4.5-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The total is set at 43.

The Chicago Bears head into this game 0-4 for this season. When they last took the field, the Bears went up against the Broncos and went home with a loss by a final score of 31-28. Justin Fields finished 28/35 with 335 yds passing and 4 touchdowns. He had a quarterback rate of 132.7 and ended the game with 1 pick. D.J. Moore had an average of 16.4 yds per catch by totaling 131 yds on 8 catches. Khalil Herbert was the leader on the ground for the Bears with 18 totes for 103 yds (5.7 yards per attempt). For the game, they ran 70 plays which gave them 471 yards. The Chicago Bears ran the football 31 different times and accumulated 171 yards, which earned them an average of 5.5 yards per carry. Against the run, the Bears conceded 97 yds on 19 attempts, which averages out to 5.1 yds per run allowed. Chicago relinquished 21 completions on 28 tries for 214 yards, and a completion rate of 75.0%.

The Bears have earned 1,221 yards in total for the season. Chicago has a total of 43 1st downs as a team, and they have been hurt by 28 penalties for 212 yards. In terms of getting in the endzone, Chicago has earned 7 passing touchdowns and 2 touchdowns via the ground. They have turned the ball over 8 times (5 picks and 3 fumbles lost). As a unit they average 119.0 yards on the ground which is 13th in the NFL. When talking about scoring points, the Chicago Bears are averaging 18.8 PPG.

Concerning yards through the air, the Bears have surrendered 1,071 yards which has them sitting in 29th in the league. They are giving up 267.8 yards per contest through the air as well as conceding a completion percentage of 70.1%. Over the course of this season, they are granting 383.3 yards per contest ranking them 28th in the National Football League. They are allowing an average of 3.8 yards per rush and 115.5 rushing yards per contest over the course of this year. In total, they have given up 462 rushing yards through 4 games. The Bears are ranked 31st in the league in terms of their opponents scoring, giving up 34.3 points per contest.

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The Commanders come into this game with a record of 2-2 this year. When they last took the field, the Commanders walked away with a loss by a score of 34-31 when they faced the Eagles. Brian Robinson Jr. carried the football 14 times for 45 yards, ending the contest with 3.2 yards per carry for Washington. Terry McLaurin was the leading receiver for the Commanders, grabbing 8 passes for 86 yards (10.8 yards per catch). Sam Howell (1 touchdown) finished the game with 290 yds on 29/41 through the air while his quarterback rate was 98.6. He didn't throw any interceptions and his average yards per pass attempt was 7.1 yds. Washington surrendered 27 rush attempts for 104 yds (3.9 yards per carry). The Commanders secondary conceded a completion percentage of 67.6%, surrendering 311 yds on 25 out of 37 through the air. The Commanders finished with 365 yds and they ran 74 plays (4.9 yards per play). Washington rushed for 3.8 yds per carry, finishing with 107 yds on 28 attempts.

Regarding how much they score, the Commanders rank 17th out of all teams in the NFL with 22.3 PPG. Over the course of the season so far, the Commanders currently sit at 805 yards through the air along with holding an average of 201.3 throwing yards per contest, giving them a rank of 20th out of all NFL teams. They maintain an average of 106.5 rushing yards per game and have rushed for 426 yards for this season. The Washington Commanders average 307.8 yards per outing which is good for 20th in the NFL. The Washington offense has racked up 197 penalty yards on 25 violations, which ranks 20th in the NFL in terms of giving up free yards. They have given away 5 interceptions while losing 3 fumbles and they have been able to record 41 first downs.

They have allowed 6 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 230.0 yards/game, ranking them 20th in the league. Washington has given up a total of 490 yards via the ground game (122.5 yards/game) in addition to 4 touchdowns rushing this season. Overall, they have conceded 120 total points. They have 5 takeaways (3 fumbles and 2 picks) so far this year. The Commanders defense taken the field for 252 plays, which ranks them 17th in the league. The Commanders are surrendering 30.0 PPG, ranking them 29th of all teams in the league.

Who will win tonight's Bears/Commanders NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Bears +4.5

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