Buffalo Bills vs Washington Commanders Prediction, 9/24/2023 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 3

Game: Buffalo Bills vs Washington Commanders

Date: Sunday, September 24, 2023

Location: FedExField in Landover, MD

TV: CBS

Odds/Point Spread: Commanders (+5.5)

Total/Over-Under: 44.5

FedExField is the site where the Washington Commanders (2-0) will play the Buffalo Bills (1-1) on Sunday. Washington opens this game as 5.5-point underdogs from oddsmakers. The over/under is set at 44.5.

The Buffalo Bills come into this game with a record of 1-1 for this season. In their last game, the Bills faced the Raiders and notched a win by a score of 38-10. Josh Allen connected on 31/37 with 274 yds through the air and 3 touchdowns. He had a QB rating of 124.5 and walked away from the contest without throwing a pick. James Cook was the best rusher for the Bills with 17 carries for 123 yds (7.2 yds per carry). Gabriel Davis averaged 15.3 yds per reception by tallying 92 yds on 6 catches. The Buffalo Bills ended up running the ball 35 different times and accumulated 183 yards, which earned them an average of 5.2 yards per attempt. Once the final whistle blew, they tallied 74 plays which totaled 450 yards. Buffalo allowed 16 completions on 24 tries for a total of 185 yds, and a completion percentage of 66.7%. On the ground, the Bills conceded 55 yds on 15 attempts, which calculates to 3.7 yards per run surrendered.

The Bills have tallied 764 total yards for the season. Buffalo has accrued 28 1st downs as a unit, and they have been called for 9 infractions for 70 yds. When it comes to distribution of touchdowns, Buffalo has totaled 4 touchdowns through the air and 2 rushing touchdowns. They have turned the ball over 4 times (3 picks and 1 fumble lost). As a unit they're holding an average of 140.0 yards via the ground game which ranks them 7th in the league. When talking about putting points on the board, the Buffalo Bills are averaging 27.0 PPG.

The Bills rank 5th in the National Football League when it comes to their opponents scoring, conceding 16.0 points per game. They are allowing 5.3 yards per rush and 113.5 rushing yards per contest this season. During this campaign, they have given up 227 yards via the ground game in 2 games. In terms of passing yards, the Bills have surrendered 302 yards which ranks them 6th in the league. They are giving up 151.0 yards per outing through the air as well as giving up a completion percentage of 65.2%. For the year, they are allowing 264.5 yards per outing putting them at 5th in football.

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The Commanders come into this game with a record of 2-0 for this year. In their last contest, the Commanders got the victory with a final of 35-33 when they faced the Broncos. Sam Howell (2 TDs) ended the game with 299 yds on 27/39 passing while his quarterback rate was 108.8. He didn't throw any interceptions and his avg yards per attempt was 7.7 yards. Brian Robinson Jr. ran the ball 18 times for 87 yds, walking away from the contest with 4.8 yards per carry for Washington. Terry McLaurin had the best day in terms of receiving for the Commanders, snagging 5 throws for 54 yards (10.8 yards per catch). Washington ran the ball for 5.3 yds per attempt, totaling 122 yards on 23 carries. The Commanders finished the game with 388 yards while running 66 plays (5.9 yds per play). The Commanders pass defense gave up a completion rate of 56.3%, relinquishing 277 yds on 18 out of 32 through the air. Washington relinquished 23 rushing attempts for 122 yards (5.3 yds per carry).

The Washington Commanders maintain an average of 318.0 yards per contest which has them sitting 19th in the NFL. They are averaging 107.0 yards via the ground game and have run for 214 yards for the year. They have tossed 1 interception while surrendering 2 fumbles and they have been able to earn 21 first downs. The Washington offense has totaled 141 yards of penalties on 16 violations, ranking them 6th in the league in terms of making mistakes. For the year so far, the Commanders have thrown for a total of 422 passing yards along with an average of 211.0 passing yards per contest, which has them sitting 15th out of all NFL teams. When it comes to the points being put on the board, the Commanders currently sit 7th in the league holding an average of 27.5 PPG.

They have surrendered 3 touchdowns through the air and 195.5 yards/outing, which has them ranked 12th in the league. Washington has conceded a total of 218 rushing yards (109.0 yards/game) as well as 1 touchdown rushing this season. In total, they have surrendered 49 total points. Their defense has totaled 4 turnovers (3 fumbles recovered and 1 interception) over the course of the season. The Commanders defense has been on the field for 120 plays, which is good for 10th in football. The Commanders are relinquishing 24.5 points per contest, which puts them in 18th in the league.

Who will win tonight's Bills/Commanders NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Commanders +5.5

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