Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction, 10/1/2023 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 4

Game: Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Date: Sunday, October 1, 2023

Location: Wembley Stadium in London, England

TV: ESPN+

Odds/Point Spread: Jaguars (-4)

Total/Over-Under: 45.5

The Atlanta Falcons (2-1) are en route to Wembley Stadium on Sunday where they will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2). Jacksonville opens this matchup as 4-point favorites. The over/under has been set at 45.5.

The Atlanta Falcons step onto the field holding a record of 2-1 this year. When they last stepped on the football field, the Falcons took the field against the Lions and ended up losing by a score of 20-6. Bijan Robinson was the best rusher for the Falcons with 10 carries for 33 yards (3.3 yards per carry). Kyle Pitts had an average of 8.2 yds per reception by earning 41 yards on 5 catches. Desmond Ridder finished 21/38 with 201 yards passing. He had a quarterback rate of 70.2 and finished the game without throwing a pick. On the ground, the Falcons conceded 115 yards on 31 attempts, which is an average of 3.7 yds per run allowed. Atlanta conceded 22 pass completions on 33 tries for 243 yds, and a completion rate of 66.7%. In all, they had 65 plays for 183 yards. The Atlanta Falcons ended up running the ball 20 different times and accounted for 44 yds, which came out to an average of 2.2 yards per carry.

When talking about scoring, the Atlanta Falcons hold an average of 18.3 points per contest. As a unit they average 128.3 yards on the ground which has them sitting 9th in the league. The Falcons have earned 850 total yards for this campaign. Atlanta has a total of 25 first downs as a team, and they have been hurt by 16 penalties for 177 yards. They have turned the football over 2 times (1 pick and 1 fumble lost). In terms of distribution of touchdowns, Atlanta has compiled 2 passing touchdowns and 3 touchdowns on the ground.

When it comes to passing yards, the Falcons have allowed 510 yards which has them sitting in 4th in football. They have conceded 170.0 yards per contest through the air in addition to conceding a completion percentage of 58.3%. Overall, they are conceding 287.7 yards per game which puts them 8th in the NFL. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 4.2 yards per rushing attempt and 117.7 yards on the ground per contest for the year. In total, they have given up 353 yards via the ground game in 3 games. The Falcons are sitting in 7th in the league in relation to their opponents scoring, giving up 18.0 points per game.

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The Jaguars head into this matchup 1-2 for this season. In their last game, the Jaguars took a loss by a final score of 37-17 when they played the Texans. Trevor Lawrence (1 TD) ended the game with 279 yds on 27/40 passing while his QB rating was 85.3. He had 1 pick and his average yds per pass attempt was 7.0 yds. Evan Engram was one of the featured targets for the Jaguars, snagging 7 passes for 67 yards (9.6 yds per catch). Travis Etienne carried the football 19 times for 88 yards, ending the contest with 4.6 yds per carry for Jacksonville. The Jaguars finished the contest with a total of 404 yards on 69 plays (5.9 yards per play). Jacksonville ended up running for 4.3 yards per attempt, finishing the contest with 116 yards on 27 carries. Jacksonville gave up 26 rushing attempts for 86 yards (3.3 yards per rush). The Jaguars pass defense allowed a completion percentage of 66.7%, relinquishing 280 yds on 20 for 30 through the air.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are averaging 339.0 yards per outing which has them sitting 16th in the league. They hold an average of 98.3 rushing yards per game and have rushed for 295 yards in total. They have thrown 2 picks while allowing opponents to recover 3 fumbles and they have recorded 37 first downs. The Jacksonville offense has racked up 104 yards of penalties on 12 violations, which has them sitting 31st in the league in terms of hurting your team. During this campaign so far, the Jaguars have earned 722 passing yards along with an average of 240.7 throwing yards per contest, which is ranked 9th in the league. In relation to their ability to score points, the Jaguars are sitting 21st in football by scoring 19.0 points per game.

They have yielded 5 touchdowns through the air in addition to 264.3 yards per contest, which puts them in 27th out of all teams. Jacksonville has surrendered a total of 252 rushing yards (84.0 yards per contest) in addition to 2 touchdowns by way of the ground game this year. This year, they have allowed 75 points in total. Their defense has earned 6 takeaways (4 fumbles recovered and 2 interceptions) so far this season. The Jaguars defense has participated in 189 plays, which has them sitting 13th in the league. The Jaguars are relinquishing 25.0 points per game, which has them ranked 23rd of all teams in the NFL.

Who will win tonight's Falcons/Jaguars NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Jaguars -4

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