Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction, 1/1/2023 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 17

Game: Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Date: Sunday, January 1, 2023

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA

TV: CBS

Odds/Point Spread: Patriots (-2.5)

Total/Over-Under: 42

Gillette Stadium is where the New England Patriots (7-8) will go up against the Miami Dolphins (8-7) on Sunday. New England opens as 2.5-point favorites. The over/under is 42.

The Miami Dolphins come into this matchup with a record of 8-7 for this season. When they last took the field, the Dolphins took the field against the Packers and walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 26-20. Tua Tagovailoa finished 16/25 with 310 yds passing and 1 TD. He had a quarterback rating of 80.8 and ended the contest with 3 interceptions. Raheem Mostert was the rushing leader for the Dolphins with 8 totes for 45 yds (5.6 yds per carry). Jaylen Waddle averaged 28.6 yards per reception by totaling 143 yds on 5 receptions. The Miami Dolphins ended up rushing 18 different times and recorded 82 yds, which came out to an average of 4.6 yds per attempt. In all, they had 45 plays for 376 yds. Miami allowed 24 completions on 38 tries for a total of 222 yds, and a completion rate of 63.2%. In the running game, the Dolphins conceded 79 yds on 25 tries, which averages out to 3.2 yards per rush allowed.

When talking about putting points on the board, the Miami Dolphins have an average of 24.3 PPG. As a team they average 95.9 yards via the ground game which ranks them 27th in the NFL. The Dolphins have racked up 5,562 total yards for the season. Miami has compiled 198 first downs as an offense, and they have been hurt by 97 infractions for 763 yards. They have turned the ball over 19 times (13 picks and 6 fumbles). When it comes to scoring touchdowns, Miami has totaled 28 passing touchdowns and 11 rushing touchdowns.

When it comes to yards through the air, the Dolphins have conceded 3,670 yards which puts them in 28th in the league. They have allowed 244.7 yards per contest via the pass and giving up a completion percentage of 67.7%. For the year, they are surrendering 353.8 yards per outing ranking them 21st in the NFL. They have given up 25 touchdowns via the pass and 15 touchdowns running the ball. The opposition is running for an average of 4.3 yards per running attempt and 109.1 rushing yards per contest this year. Over the course of this season, they have allowed 1,637 rushing yards through 15 outings. The Dolphins sit in 27th in the NFL in terms of team defense, allowing 24.7 points per contest.

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The Patriots step onto the field holding a record of 7-8 for this season. In their last contest, the Patriots took a loss by a score of 22-18 when they played the Bengals. Mac Jones (2 TDs) finished the game with 240 yards on 21/33 passing while his QB rate was 105.6. He didn't toss any picks and his average yards per pass attempt was 7.3 yards. Rhamondre Stevenson ran the football 13 times for 30 yds, finishing the game with 2.3 yds per carry for New England. Kendrick Bourne was a featured target for the Patriots, snagging 6 balls for 100 yds (16.7 yds per catch). New England rushed for 3.8 yds per attempt, finishing the game with 61 yds on 16 attempts. The Patriots finished the game with a total of 285 yds on 53 plays (5.4 yards per play). The Patriots passing defense conceded a completion rate of 76.9%, relinquishing 369 yds on 40 out of 52 passing. New England allowed 24 rush attempts for 73 yards (3.0 yds per rush).

When looking at their scoring prowess, the Patriots are sitting 16th in the league maintaining an average of 21.2 PPG. Over the course of the season so far, the Patriots have thrown for a total of 3,129 passing yards in addition to holding an average of 208.6 passing yards per outing, giving them a rank of 21st in the NFL. They average 108.6 yards per game via the rush and have run for 1,629 yards for this season. The New England Patriots average 317.2 yards per contest which has them sitting 24th in the league. The New England offense has racked up 782 yds of penalties on 96 infractions, which ranks 6th in the league in terms of helping out the opposition. They have given away 11 interceptions while letting opponents recover 9 fumbles and they have been able to tally 144 1st downs.

The Patriots are allowing 19.4 points per game, ranking them 5th of all teams in the league. They have given up 23 touchdowns through the air and 213.1 yards/outing, which puts them in 14th in the league. This season, they have surrendered 291 points in total. New England has surrendered a total of 1,617 yards rushing (107.8 yards per outing) and 6 touchdowns via the rush for the season. The Patriots defense taken the field for 964 plays, which ranks 21st in the league. Their defense has totaled 25 takeaways (9 fumbles recovered and 16 interceptions) for the season.

Who will win tonight's Dolphins/Patriots NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Dolphins +2.5

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