Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction, 9/12/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Week 1

Game: Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Date: Sunday, September 12, 2021

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA

TV: CBS

Odds/Point Spread: Patriots (-1.5)

Total/Over-Under: 46.5

Gillette Stadium is where the New England Patriots (7-9-0 last year) will attempt to defeat the Miami Dolphins (10-6-0 last season) on Sunday. New England opens this contest as 1.5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The over/under is set at 46.5.

The Miami Dolphins ended the year having a 10-6-0 record. In their last contest, the Dolphins faced the Bills and took a loss by a final of 56-26. Tua Tagovailoa connected on 35/58 with 361 yds passing and 1 TD. He had a quarterback rating of 62.5 and ended the game with 3 interceptions. Myles Gaskin led the offense in rushing for the Dolphins with 7 totes for 20 yards (2.9 yds per carry). Lynn Bowden Jr. averaged 5.5 yds per catch by accumulating 44 yards on 8 receptions. The Miami Dolphins ended up running the ball 20 times and accumulated 70 yards, earning them an average of 3.5 yards per tote. For the game, they ran 80 plays which gave them a total of 454 yards. Miami relinquished 24 completions on 38 tries for 377 yards, and a completion rate of 63.2%. On the ground, the Dolphins conceded 78 yds on 25 attempts, which is an average of 3.1 yds per run allowed.

Concerning getting in the endzone, the Miami Dolphins held an average of 25.3 points per contest. As a unit they averaged 105.5 yards on the ground, giving them a rank of 22nd in the National Football League. The Dolphins tallied 5,424 yards in total for the previous season. Miami earned 24 touchdowns through the air and 15 touchdowns on the ground. Miami accrued 207 1st downs as a unit, and they committed 74 infractions for 635 yds. They turned the ball over 20 different times (13 picks and 7 fumbles lost).

When it comes to yards through the air, the Dolphins gave up 4,024 yards which had them ranked 23rd in football. Over the course of their 16 games played last season, they relinquished 251.5 yards per contest via the pass and allowed a completion percentage of 62.9%. They surrendered 367.9 yards per game which had them ranked 20th in the league. They allowed 21 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 17 rushing touchdowns. They allowed 4.5 yards per rushing attempt and 116.4 rushing yards per game for the prior season. In total, they gave up 1,862 yards via the running game in 16 games. The Dolphins were ranked 6th in the league when it comes to team defense, giving up 21.1 PPG.

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The Patriots ended the year having a 7-9-0 record. In their last game, the Patriots walked away with a victory by a final of 28-14 when they played the Jets. Sony Michel carried the football 16 times for 76 yards, walking away from the game with 4.8 yards per carry for New England. Jakobi Meyers was the leading receiver for the Patriots, grabbing 6 passes for 68 yards (11.3 yards per reception). Cam Newton (3 touchdowns) ended the contest with 242 yds on 21/30 passing while his QB rate was 127.4. He kept the ball away from the defense with no interceptions and his longest pass completion was 31 yds. New England relinquished 25 run attempts for 111 yards (4.4 yds per rush). The Patriots passing defense conceded a completion percentage of 67.6%, surrendering 239 yds on 23 for 34 passing. The Patriots finished the game with 404 yds while they ran 63 plays (6.4 yds per play). New England rushed the ball for 5.7 yards per tote, finishing with a total of 166 yards on 29 carries.

In relation to their scoring prowess, the Patriots ranked 27th out of all teams in football scoring 20.4 points per outing. Last year, the Patriots racked up 2,890 yards through the air along with an average of 180.6 passing yards per game, ranking them 30th in the NFL. They averaged 146.6 yards via the ground game and ran for 2,346 yards for the year. The New England Patriots held an average of 327.3 yards per outing which had them sitting 27th in the league. The New England offense compiled 534 penalty yds on 62 violations, which was good for 32nd in football in terms of hurting your team. They threw 14 interceptions while losing 5 fumbles and they obtained 157 first downs.

New England surrendered a total of 2,103 yards rushing (131.4 yards/game) as well as 17 touchdowns rushing last year. They had 22 takeaways (4 fumbles and 18 interceptions) last year. They gave up 22 touchdowns through the air and 222.3 yards/game, which had them in 8th in the NFL. The Patriots defense was on the field for 982 plays, which was good for 2nd in the NFL. Over the course of the season, they allowed 353 total points. The Patriots conceded 22.1 points per game, ranking them 7th of all teams in the NFL.

Who will win tonight's Dolphins/Patriots NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Miami +1.5

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