Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, 10/10/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Week 5

Game: Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Date: Sunday, October 10, 2021

Location: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)

Total/Over-Under: 53.5

The Buffalo Bills (3-1) are headed to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday where they will play the Kansas City Chiefs (2-2). Buffalo opens this contest as 3.5-point underdogs. The over/under is 53.5.

The Buffalo Bills come into this game with a record of 3-1 this year. In their last game, the Bills played the Texans and walked away with a win by a score of 40-0. Josh Allen finished 20/29 with 248 yds passing and 2 TDs. He had a QB rate of 103.8 and finished the game with 1 pick. Devin Singletary was the rushing leader for the Bills with 14 carries for 79 yds (5.6 yds per attempt). Stefon Diggs averaged 16.3 yards per reception by recording 114 yds on 7 catches. The Buffalo Bills ended up running the ball 40 different times and accumulated 199 yds, which is an average of 5.0 yards per attempt. Overall, they had 71 plays which gave them 450 yards. Buffalo gave up 11 pass completions on 21 attempts for 61 yards, and a completion percentage of 52.4%. On the ground, the Bills gave up 48 yards on 18 tries, which calculates to 2.7 yards per rush surrendered.

The Bills have earned 1,616 total yards for the year. Buffalo has 53 1st downs as a unit, and they have been flagged for 22 penalties for 194 yds. In terms of scoring touchdowns, Buffalo has earned 9 touchdowns through the air and 6 rushing touchdowns. They have surrendered the football 4 times (2 interceptions and 2 fumbles lost). As a unit they're averaging 145.3 yards on the ground which ranks them 5th in the NFL. Regarding putting points on the board, the Buffalo Bills hold an average of 33.5 points per game.

The Bills rank 1st in the NFL in terms of team defense, giving up 11.0 PPG. Opposing teams are running for an average of 3.2 yards per rush and 68.0 yards on the ground per game this season. For the season, they have allowed 272 yards on the ground through 4 outings. In terms of passing yardage, the Bills have surrendered 595 yards which puts them in 1st in the National Football League. They are allowing 148.8 yards per contest through the air as well as allowing a completion percentage of 56.2%. Overall, they are surrendering 216.8 yards per contest which puts them 1st in the NFL. They have yielded 3 touchdowns through the air and 1 touchdown via the ground game.

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The Chiefs head into this matchup 2-2 this season. When they last played, the Chiefs walked away with a victory by a final of 42-30 when they faced the Eagles. Patrick Mahomes (5 TDs) ended the contest with 278 yds on 24/30 through the air while his quarterback rating was 131. He threw 1 pick and his longest pass completion was 44 yds. Tyreek Hill was the leading receiver for the Chiefs, snagging 11 passes for 186 yds (16.9 yards per catch). Clyde Edwards-Helaire carried the rock 14 times for 102 yds, finishing the game with 7.3 yds per attempt for Kansas City. The Chiefs finished the contest with a total of 471 yds and they ran 63 plays (7.5 yards per play). Kansas City ended up running for 6.3 yards per tote, finishing the contest with 200 yds on 32 carries. Kansas City allowed 19 attempts on the ground for 103 yards (5.4 yards per carry). The Chiefs pass defense gave up a completion rate of 66.7%, surrendering 358 yds on 32 for 48 passing.

In relation to the points being put on the board, the Chiefs are sitting 3rd in football holding an average of 33.5 points per outing. For the year so far, the Chiefs have compiled 1,189 yards through the air in addition to an average of 297.3 passing yards per contest, which has them ranked 5th out of all NFL teams. They are averaging 130.3 yards via the ground game and have run for 521 yards for this season. The Kansas City Chiefs maintain an average of 427.5 yards/outing ranking them 2nd in football. The Kansas City offense has racked up 184 penalty yards on 23 infractions, which is 25th in the NFL in terms of helping out the opposition. They have thrown 4 interceptions while losing 3 fumbles and they have been able to obtain 68 1st downs.

The Chiefs are giving up 31.3 points per game, which puts them in 31st in the league. Kansas City has allowed a total of 584 yards via the ground game (146.0 yards per outing) as well as 8 touchdowns by way of the ground game for the season. They have conceded 7 touchdowns through the air in addition to 291.8 yards per outing, which has them ranked 27th in the league. The Chiefs defense has taken part in 255 plays, which is good for 18th in the league. This season, they have given up 125 points in total. Their defense has tallied 4 turnovers (1 fumble recovery and 3 interceptions) for the season.

Who will win tonight's Bills/Chiefs NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Bills +3.5

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