Texans vs. Chiefs Predictions, Picks, Betting Tips 9/10/20

Game: Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Date: Thursday, September 10, 2020

Location: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: Kansas City -11.0

Total/Over-Under: 55.0

The NFL schedule makers certainly have a sick sense of humor.

Houston will begin its season in the same place where its 2019 season ended when they meet Kansas City at 8 p.m. on Thursday, Sept. 10 in the opening game of the 2020 NFL season.

The last time they were here, the Texans were on the wrong end of a savage and relentless 51-31 humiliation, blowing a 24-0 lead in a Divisional Round playoff game in Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs mercilessly flogged the visiting Texans during a 41-0 run in the second and third quarters and achieved one of the biggest comebacks in playoff history.

And now, like an assault victim being forced to face their accuser in court or a war weary soldier being forced to return to the site of a lost battle, Houston will unwillingly be marched back into Arrowhead to face the team that crushed their soul last January.

The residual momentum of that meeting on Jan. 12 has reverberated out. For Kansas City, they used their newfound drive to win a championship, thanks to another stirring comeback from a 20-10 fourth quarter deficit in the Super Bowl. For Houston, that staggering defeat has carried over into a baffling offseason that has left the Texans weaker and trending in the wrong direction.

Kansas City has been able to lean on the continuity of its championship squad throughout this bizarre NFL offseason. Their confidence and familiarity – along with Patrick Mahomes – will be their greatest advantages when the season kicks off.

But for Houston, they will be a different team when they head back to Kansas City. An offseason of Bill O’Brien’s stupidity has resulted in the departure of DeAndre Hopkins, D.J. Reader and Johnathan Joseph and the addition of retreads like David Johnson, Brandin Cooks and Randal Cobb. It isn’t an altogether different Texans team than the one that has claimed back-to-back division titles. But sans Hopkins, it is impossible to argue that Houston is somehow better this time around.

There is no way that I am in a hurry to bet against the Chiefs. Their rapid-strike offense is unparalleled, and a two-touchdown win in this game wouldn’t be beyond comprehension. However, I do think that the betting value on this game is with Houston.

The Texans were 10-point underdogs when they came here in January. Now they are catching 11 points. But since the NFL season is most likely going to begin without fans in the stadiums, then some of Kansas City’s fantastic home field advantage will be mitigated. Beyond that, Houston actually beat the Chiefs here last season, winning 31-24 (and overcoming a 17-3 deficit) in an Oct. 13 showdown.

Finally, Houston is used to opening the season in hostile road environments. Last season they nearly beat the Saints in New Orleans on Monday night in Week 1, losing on a 58-yard field goal at the buzzer. Mix in a potential Super Bowl hangover for the Chiefs, and I could see the Texans throwing a scare into another powerhouse team in Week 1.

If I absolutely had to make a play on the side in this game, I would likely take the points.

A more interesting number here is on the total. I’m assuming there will be some kind of abbreviated training camp this August. That, on top of the cancelled offseason workouts and minicamps, means that teams might be a little rusty and sloppy to start the season.

But early in the season, the offenses are usually a step ahead of the defenses. Last year the Chiefs rang up 135 points in their first four games of the year (33.8 per game). They also allowed 94 points in those games (23.5 per game), meaning they had an average of 57.3 points per game the first four weeks of the season. There were 55 combined points in their regular season meeting and 82 points scored in the playoff game.

I can see a bit of a shootout here and I think that stops will be hard to come by. I don’t think that a 33-24 or 31-27 game is out of the question.

Who will win tonight's Texans/Chiefs NFL game against the spread?

Robert Ferringo’s Pick: Take Houston (+11) and the ‘Over’ 55.0.

NOTE: Robert made these picks and predictions in May. Things can and will change in the four months between May and September. These May predictions may or may not match his rated Week 1 picks released to his clients on Thursday, Sept. 10.

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