Week 11 NFL Picks: Best 6-Point Teaser Bets from Handicapper Doug Upstone

Last week didn't go as planned for NFL teasers. I ended up just 2-2, with only winner as the Colts and 49ers lost outright. Fortunately, we are still hanging in there profit-wise with a 30-10 teaser record, and the mission this week is getting back to winning ways.

I'm the first to admit, this week oddsmakers are making it tough, and finding great value at the best numbers is not as easy. No matter, the idea is to uncover winners, and I, like you, am headed to the window with these selections in various ways for teasers.

For those new to this space, I'm the newest member of the sports handicapping team at Doc's Sports, and it will take a while for many of you learn what I am about and my sports betting style. With that in mind for prior readers, I'm going to leave the key points of how, in my opinion, is the best way to bet teasers against the NFL odds. This is a condensed version of the most pertinent information for your usage for NFL picks, which is after all four plays.

Below are my Week 11 selections.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland - Nov.14 - Steelers Taken From +2.5 to +8.5 over Browns

Cleveland did end their four-game slide last week, yet they still made plenty of mistakes and were largely dreadful in the red zone against Buffalo. This is what teams do that that don't know how to win; they give the fans and backers a frisson of fear even when winning. Pittsburgh is doing just the opposite, riding a four-game winning streak after a 1-4 start. The Steelers are not Super Bowl contenders, but they are playing football similar to when Mike Tomlin was first the head coach. Pitt is committed to the run (despite indifferent results) and is forcing more than three turnovers a game since Week 2 with a revamped defense. Seeing the Steelers are 17-6 SU in Cleveland, flying by key numbers of 3, 6 and 7 seems like a gift.

Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Steelers +8.5

Atlanta at Carolina - Nov. 17 - Panthers Taken From -5.5 to +0.5 over Falcons

Atlanta came off their bye week and was ready for action and upset and outplayed New Orleans on the road to win by 17. Carolina might well have won at Green Bay, but two critical turnovers turned out to be the difference. However, not going to overreact to the Falcons winning for the first time since Week 2, having to play another road division foe. Any team can pull off an upset (I say that knowing Cincinnati is 0-9), but doing so in consecutive away games and still ranked 28th in points allowed sure seems like a reach. That is why to protect ourselves, lowering Carolina to a position where they just need to win the game is the right choice. And, the Panthers are 27-3 against a teaser line off a road loss.

Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Panthers +0.5

Denver at Minnesota - Nov. 17 - Vikings Taken From -10.5 to -4.5 over Broncos

Minnesota was extremely impressive in the triumph at Dallas, with a quick start and a strong finish. Back home, we find the Vikings 25-8 ATS in Minneapolis after a win by six or fewer points, with a winning margin of 7.3 PPG. They'll face a Denver squad off a bye and seeking more magic from QB Brandon Allen, who won his first start against Cleveland two weeks ago. Allen will make his first road start, and the team in purple will not be shy about bringing the pressure if he some success. The last 36 times Minny has been a home favorite, they've won by 8.2 PPG, easily covering the teaser spread.

Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Vikings -4.5

Chicago at N.Y. L.A. Rams - Nov. 17 - Bears Taken From +6.5 to -12.5 over Rams

This clash sure was more enticing before the season started than it is today. Instead of entertaining division championships and seeding possibilities, the Bears and Rams are attempting to just get an invite to the playoffs. This matchup features two quarterbacks who are vilified by their fans by not playing as well as they were expected to. Poor offense line is not helping these QBs causes, which could lead to another low-scoring affair like last year's 15-6 Chicago victory. Both teams are above average defensively, with the Bears the stronger of the two, having the chance at more than a dozen digits with a listed total of 41.5 is too good to pass up.

Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Bears +12.5

Doug Upstone's NFL Teasers Method - Betting NFL teasers is not about taking off points in games you like, rather creating value going against key numbers. Those key numbers I am talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers NFL odds for teasers.

The other key component is betting wisely. Limiting your teasers to two, three or four-team groupings, that enhances your chances of winning. With most four-team teasers paying out about $240 on $100 bet when you go to a five-teamer that jumps to +365 and keeps rising as you add more games.

Along with that so does your chances of not winning. How often have you bet teasers and parlays of six or more and only had one wrong? My guess is too often. Long shots do come in, but more often than not the money won only pays for all previous losses.

Doug Upstone is the newest handicapper at Doc's Sports and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.

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