Free NFL Teaser Picks for Week 4 from Handicapper Doug Upstone

As the newest member of the sports handicapping team at Doc's Sports, it will take awhile for many of you to find me and learn what I am about. With that in mind for prior readers, I'm going to leave the key points of how, in my opinion, is the best way to bet teasers against the NFL odds.

This will be condensed to have the most pertinent of information for your usage for NFL picks .

Last week I had my second sweep in three weeks of all four teasers, taking me to 11-1 on the season. This meant we hit every two, three or four-team teaser and brought in a lot of extra cash. My goal each year in betting teasers is to hit 75 to 80 percent, and if met (7 of the last 8 years), this is a noticeable amount of extra money to be made.

Below are this week's selections.

Doug Upstone's NFL Teasers Method - Betting NFL teasers is not about taking off points in games you like, rather creating value going against key numbers . Those key numbers I am talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers' NFL odds for teasers.

The other key component is betting wisely. Limiting your teasers to two, three or four-team groupings, that enhances your chances of winning. With most four-team teasers paying out about $240 on $100 bet, when you go to a five-teamer that jumps to +365 and keeps rising as you add more games.

Along with that, so does your chances of not winning. How often have you bet teasers and parlays of six or more and only had one wrong? My guess is too often. Long shots do come in, but more often than not the money won only pays for all previous losses.

Philadelphia at Green Bay - Sept. 26 - Eagles Taken From +4.5 to +10.5 over Packers

The Green Bay Packers are 3-0 SU and ATS and are playing at Lambeau Field and should handle the stumbling Philadelphia Eagles with ease, right? Possibly. Or, maybe not. This is the Packers fourth game in three weeks. Whether any team is home or away, that is a lot of football in short span. Statistically, Green Bay is a middle of the road 14th in total defense but is No. 2 in points allowed (11.3 PPG) because they have generated eight turnovers. Nonetheless, Aaron Rodgers offense is only at 19.3 points a game. And with a ability on this teaser to have the Eagles fly by key numbers like 6, 7 and 10, that is too much value to start Week 4.

Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Packers +7.5

Cleveland at Baltimore - Sept. 29 - Ravens Taken From -7 to -1 over Browns

Baltimore hosts Cleveland, and both teams are coming off setbacks. For the Browns, theirs was especially painful, as the preseason darlings are 1-2 and they have an upcoming slate of four road games in five games versus mostly heavyweights like the Ravens. Still, for Cleveland, this has the feel of a "must-win" contest, especially against the only other team in their division that has comparable talent. With this, I am expecting a big effort from the Browns. That why taking Baltimore from -7 to -1 is sensible, as most would still expect them to win and we cannot lose this teaser unless the Ravens do outright. Plus, Baltimore is 34-4 against a teaser line in September home games.

Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Ravens -1

Oakland at Indianapolis - Sept. 29 - Colts Taken From -6.5 to -0.5 over Raiders

You may have noticed, nobody is talking about Andrew Luck, which tells you just how good a job Colts head coach Frank Reich is doing. Indianapolis is 2-1, and the lone defeat was in overtime to the L.A. Chargers. The Colts offensively are known for a power running game, but quarterback Jacoby Brissett threw for 300 yards last week and will face an Oakland pass defense which is ranked 24th. The Raiders are averaging only 16 PPG. However, just in case they have a better day, going through key number of 6 and 3 has us landing where any Indy victory is a winner for us. The last 53 times Oakland trailed in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half, they went on to lose by 7.1 PPG.

Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Colts -9.5

Seattle at Arizona - Sept. 29 - Seahawks Taken From -5.5 to +0.5 over Cardinals

Seattle and Arizona both faced backup quarterbacks last week at home and were favored to win. Both failed to so. That should provide extra incentive for both to win. One aspect that cannot be overlooked is talent, and the Seahawks have a better roster and more playmakers. That gives them the edge, and the oddsmakers' pointspread clearly explains this as a fact. For teaser purposes, we have the opportunity to flip Peter Carroll's club from a favorite to an underdog and increase our value. This has the makings of a winner with Carroll and the Hawks 20-2 on the moneyline off an upset loss as a favorite, winning by 11.1 PPG.

Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Seahawks +0.5

Doug Upstone is the newest handicapper at Doc's Sports and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.

$$ Doug was 4-1 in NFL for Week 3, now 8-4, 66.6% for 2019

$$ Doug was 4-1 in CFB last week and 6-2-1 the last two weeks (Consider Month package)

$$ Doug's on a 58-38 NFL run and is 2016 Monitored Champion

$$ Doug has 21 No.1 monitored titles and 80 Top 10 finishes!

$$ Doug has 6-units Winners coming in the NFL and College Football Thursday!

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