Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread 10/6/2019

Sunday, October 6, 2019

Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Sunday where they'll take on the New Orleans Saints. The odds on this matchup have New Orleans as 6.5-point favorites. The O/U opens at 47. The Buccaneers are 2-2-0 ATS and 2-2-0 when betting on the total. The Saints are 2-2-0 when wagering on the over/under and 3-1-0 against the spread.

Key Tampa Bay Buccaneers Injuries

09/30/19 LB Jack Cichy Elbow injured last game, is questionable Sunday vs New Orleans
09/29/19 CB Ryan Smith Suspension Served is probable Sunday vs New Orleans
09/29/19 CB Jamel Dean Ankle is questionable Sunday vs New Orleans
09/29/19 LB Devin White Knee is questionable Sunday vs New Orleans
09/24/19 QB Blaine Gabbert Shoulder IR
09/09/19 S Justin Evans Achilles IR
09/03/19 S Orion Stewart Knee IR
08/09/19 DE Jason Pierre-Paul Neck IR
08/09/19 LB Kendell Beckwith Ankle IR
08/07/19 OL Michael Liedtke Shoulder is out for season

Key New Orleans Saints Injuries

09/27/19 WR Tre'quan Smith Ankle is questionable Sunday vs Tampa Bay
09/27/19 C William Clapp Hamstring is questionable Sunday vs Tampa Bay
09/27/19 LB Kaden Elliss Knee IR
09/17/19 WR Keith Kirkwood Knee IR
09/16/19 QB Drew Brees Hand is out indefinitely
09/16/19 LB Alex Anzalone Shoulder IR
09/03/19 DE Carl Granderson Legal problems PUP
09/03/19 T Chris Clark Knee IR

In the last game they played, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took on the Los Angeles Rams and earned the victory by a score of 55-40. Ronald Jones II paced the team in rushing during the game. He broke a long run for 24 yards and he tallied 1 TD for the game. He racked up a total of 70 yards by way of 19 carries which meant he was running for 3.7 yards per run. Chris Godwin was the leader in receiving yardage by racking up 172 yards on 12 receptions. He averaged 14.3 yards per catch during the game. Running the show from under center for the Buccaneers was Jameis Winston who went 28/41 with 385 yards through the air and added 4 touchdowns. He walked away with 1 interception during the game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ended up running the ball 30 times and generated 88 yards which earned them an average of 2.9 yards per attempt. In all, they ran 73 plays which added up to 464 yards. For the contest, the Buccaneers earned a total of 27 1st downs and they totaled 12 infractions for 99 yards. When discussing the defense, Tampa Bay allowed 45 completions on 68 tries for a total of 490 yards, and a completion percentage of 66.0%. On the ground, the Buccaneers allowed 28 yards on 11 tries which means they allowed 2.5 yards per rushing attempt allowed. For this contest, they gave up a total of 518 yards and earned 4 takeaways.

The Buccaneers come into this game with a record of 2-2 in 2019. They are one of the dangerous teams among NFC South teams and they have the ability to run the score up on teams. For total yards, they rank 5th among NFC teams and 9th in the league with 1,547 yards. When it comes to scoring touchdowns, the Buccaneers currently have a total of 9 passing TDs and 3 rushing TDs. They are one of top scoring teams in the league averaging 31 points per contest, ranking them 4th in the league. As a unit, they are averaging 113 rushing yards per game which is 1st among NFC teams.

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The Buccaneers have one of the middle tier defenses in the NFL, giving up 29.3 points per contest putting them 15th in the NFC. When it comes to passing yards, the Buccaneers have conceded 1,273 yards. Opponents are completing 61.0% of the passes they throw against them and averaging 6.6 yards per attempt. They have allowed 5 passing TDs and 4 rushing TDs. In discussing yards rushing, Tampa Bay is allowing 59.3 yards per game which has them at 1st in the NFC South and 1st in the league. Opposing teams are running for an average of 2.9 yards per carry which has them at 1st in the NFC and 1st among NFL teams overall. Overall, they have allowed 453 yards rushing through 4 games.

In their last outing, the New Orleans Saints played the Dallas Cowboys and earned the victory by a score of 12-10. Alvin Kamara paced the team on the ground for that contest. He broke a long run for 13 yards but wasn't able to convert a rushing touchdown. He ran for a total of 69 yards by way of 17 carries which gave him an average of 4.1 yards per carry. Michael Thomas was the receiving yardage leader with a total of 95 yards on 9 catches. He notched an average of 10.6 yards per reception for that contest. Taking the lead at quarterback for the Saints was Teddy Bridgewater who went 23/30 with 193 yards through the air but wasn't able to get any balls in the endzone via the pass. He walked away with 1 interception during the game. The New Orleans Saints ran the football 27 times and racked up 117 yards giving them an average of 4.3 yards per rushing attempt. In the game, they ran 62 plays which added up to 266 yards. In the game, the Saints racked up a total of 18 first downs and they had a total of 9 penalties for 80 yards. In terms of defense, New Orleans allowed 22 catches on 33 attempts totaling 212 yards, and a completion percentage of 67.0%. For the game, they allowed 256 yards and earned 3 takeaways. Against the run, the Saints allowed 44 yards on 20 carries which gave them an average of 2.2 yards per attempt allowed.

The Saints come into this matchup with a record of 3-1. New Orleans needs to do more to make teams respect their running game by averaging 103 yards on the ground per contest, ranking them 19th in the NFL. As a team, they have compiled a total of 410 yards rushing through 4 contests, so they are going to want to make some changes to the ground game if they want to make teams respect them. The Saints average 321 yards per contest overall putting them 26th in the league and 14th among NFC teams. In discussing their scoring prowess, the Saints are ranked 3rd in the NFC South and 20th out of all the teams in the league averaging 21.0 points per game.

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The Saints are allowing 23.0 points per game which puts them at 2nd in the NFC South and 16th among NFL teams. In terms of points allowed, they have allowed 92 total points. In terms of yards rushing, they are allowing 112 yards per contest which puts them at 20th in the NFL and 3rd in the NFC South. For the 2019 season, they have conceded 448 yards on the ground and 6 rushing touchdowns. Their passing defense is one of the mediocre units in the NFL. They are conceding 279 passing yards per contest. For passing yards allowed per game, the Saints are currently ranked 12th among NFC teams. They have conceded 6 passing TDs in 2019.

Who will win tonight's Buccaneers/Saints NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Buccaneers +6.5

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