Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs NFL Picks Against the Spread 10/6/2019

Sunday, October 6, 2019

Arrowhead Stadium

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host the Indianapolis Colts at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, October 6, 2019. Kansas City opens this game as 8.5-point favorites. The total is set at 54. The Colts are 2-2-0 ATS and 3-1-0 when betting on the total. The Chiefs are 3-1-0 when wagering on the over/under and 4-0-0 against the spread.

Key Indianapolis Colts Injuries

09/30/19 S Clayton Geathers Concussion is questionable Sunday vs Kansas City
09/30/19 WR Parris Campbell Abdominal is questionable Sunday vs Kansas City
09/29/19 LB Darius Leonard Concussion is questionable Sunday vs Kansas City
09/29/19 RB Marlon Mack Ankle left last game, is questionable Sunday vs Kansas City
09/29/19 WR T.Y. Hilton Quad is questionable Sunday vs Kansas City
09/29/19 DT Tyquan Lewis Ankle is questionable Sunday vs Kansas City
09/23/19 S Malik Hooker Knee is out 4-6 weeks
09/09/19 WR Devin Funchess Collarbone IR
09/03/19 WR Daurice Fountain Leg IR
09/03/19 C Javon Patterson Knee IR
08/24/19 QB Andrew Luck Retired is out for season
08/09/19 DE Jabaal Sheard Knee is out indefinitely

Key Kansas City Chiefs Injuries

09/30/19 DE Alex Okafor Hip left last game, is questionable Sunday vs Indianapolis
09/29/19 RB Damien Williams Knee is questionable Sunday vs Indianapolis
09/19/19 OL Eric Fisher Groin is out indefinitely
09/08/19 WR Tyreek Hill Shoulder is out 4-6 weeks
09/03/19 LB Breeland Speaks Knee IR
09/03/19 QB Chad Henne Ankle IR
09/03/19 WR Marcus Kemp Knee IR

In their last game, the Indianapolis Colts played the Oakland Raiders and lost 31-24. Taking the lead at quarterback for the Colts was Jacoby Brissett who went 24/46 with 265 yards passing and completed 3 TD's. He walked away with 1 pick on the day. Marlon Mack paced the team on the ground for the game. He had a long run of 18 yards but he wasn't able to rush for a TD on the day. He scurried for 39 yards on 11 carries which meant he was running for 3.5 yards per carry. Zach Pascal was the leader in receiving yardage by racking up 72 yards on 4 catches. He averaged 18.0 yards per catch for the game. The Indianapolis Colts ran the football 23 times and generated 81 yards giving them an average of 3.5 yards per rush. On the day, the Colts earned 22 1st downs and they had 5 penalties for 35 yards. Overall, they finished with a total of 69 plays which gave them a total of 346 yards. In terms of defense, Indianapolis conceded 21 completions on 31 throws totaling 189 yards, and a completion percentage of 68.0%. Overall, they conceded a total of 377 yards and forced 1 turnover. In the running game, the Colts conceded 188 yards on 32 runs which gave the opponent an average of 5.9 yards per carry allowed.

The Colts come into this matchup with a record of 2-2 for this season. This team is one of the more average teams in terms of scoring among AFC South teams and I wouldn't expect things to change too much in this game. For total yards, they are currently ranked 9th among AFC teams and 18th in the NFL with 1,389 yards. When it comes to getting in the endzone, the Colts have compiled a total of 10 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing TDs. They are in the middle of the pack in regard to scoring in the league with an average of 24 points per game, which has them at 12th in the NFL. As a team, they have an average of 133 rushing yards per game which is 2nd in the AFC.

The Colts have one of the middle tier defenses in the NFL, giving up 25.5 points per contest which has them at 13th in the AFC. In terms of yards rushing, Indianapolis is allowing 132.5 yards per game ranking them 4th in the AFC South and 25th in the NFL. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 5.5 yards per rush which has them at 15th in the AFC and 31st in the league overall. In total, they have conceded 530 rushing yards through 4 games. When it comes to passing yards, the Colts have conceded 922 yards. Opponents are completing 74.0% of the passes they throw against them and averaging 6.8 yards per try. They have conceded 9 passing touchdowns and 3 rushing TDs.

The last time they played, the Kansas City Chiefs took on the Detroit Lions and notched a win by a score of 34-30. Taking the lead at quarterback for the Chiefs was Patrick Mahomes who went 24/42 with 315 yards through the air but wasn't able to get any balls in the endzone via the pass. He ended the game with no interceptions. LeSean McCoy led the team on the ground for the game. He broke a long run for 39 yards and he notched 1 touchdown during the game. He ran for 56 yards on 11 carries which had him averaging 5.1 yards per tote. Travis Kelce led the team in receiving yardage with a total of 85 yards on 7 receptions. He earned an average of 12.1 yards per reception for the game. The Kansas City Chiefs ran the football 24 times and racked up a total of 123 yards giving them an average of 5.1 yards per attempt. For the contest, the Chiefs earned a total of 29 first downs and they had a total of 7 penalties for 51 yards. In the game, they ran 66 plays which gave them a total of 438 yards. When it comes to their defensive performance, Kansas City gave up 21 completions on 34 tries for a total of 261 yards, and a completion percentage of 62.0%. For this contest, they allowed a total of 447 yards and forced 2 turnovers. On the ground, the Chiefs gave up 186 yards on 35 runs which gave the opponent an average of 5.3 yards per rushing attempt allowed.

The Chiefs head into this matchup 4-0. In discussing the offensive production, the Chiefs have one of the best offenses in the league. When talking about the points that are being put on the board, the Chiefs are ranked 1st in the AFC West and 2nd out of all the teams in the league with an average of 33.8 points per game. Kansas City needs to do more to make teams respect their running game by averaging 102 rushing yards per contest, ranking them 20th in the league. As a team, they have a total of 407 yards rushing through 4 contests, so they are going to want to make some changes to the ground game if they want to make teams respect them. The Chiefs average 475 yards per contest overall ranking them 2nd in the NFL and 2nd in the conference.

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The Chiefs are allowing 23.5 points per game ranking them 3rd in the AFC West and 19th in the league. In regard to points allowed, they have allowed 94 points in total. When it comes to yards rushing, they are giving up 150 yards per contest which puts them at 31st in the league and 4th in the AFC West. For this season, they have given up 599 yards rushing and 4 rushing TDs. Their passing defense is one of the middle of the road units in the league. They are giving up 259 passing yards per contest. For yards through the air allowed per game, the Chiefs are currently ranked 10th among AFC teams. They have allowed 7 passing touchdowns this season.

Who will win tonight's Colts/Chiefs NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Chiefs -8.5

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