2018 Jacksonville Jaguars Season Win Totals Predictions and Expert Picks

2017 Record: 10-6

2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 9.0*

2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Under'

Beyond the Oakland Raiders, I don't think I've waffled on a team more this offseason than the Jacksonville Jaguars. I have been waiting until the end of last season to bet against this team. My first instinct has been to fade all the way. But as the season gets closer the more I realize that I like about 90 percent of what they have going on.

There are no illusions about how the Jaguars want to play football. They are a tough, hard-nosed, old-school team that relies on punishing teams on both sides of the ball. The philosophy is vintage Tom Coughlin, who has built this team up from the front office over the last two years. His hand-picked coaching hire, Doug Marrone, subscribes to the same blue collar ethos and has this team playing physical football all the way.

The strength of this team is clearly the defense. They were No. 2 in total yards and No. 2 in points allowed last year. The Jaguars have virtually everyone back and will again be a force. Jalen Ramsey, Barry Church, Tashaun Gipson and A.J. Bouye form one of the top secondaries in the NFL. And Jacksonville has waves of pass rushers to keep the pressure going full throttle.

The Jaguars' physical, forceful style continues on the offensive side of the ball. They have a massive offensive line that got even bigger with the addition of Pro Bowl guard Andrew Norwell. The Jaguars will pound the ball with Leonard Fournette off tackles and screen passes to T.J. Yeldon in the flat. They led the NFL in rushing attempts last year with an average of 33 per game. And I expect them to do the same again this year.

But that brings me to the No. 1 reasons I can't fully get behind this team: Blake Bortles. Blake Bortles is awful. He is truly a pathetic quarterback and is a turnover machine. At his best he is kind of a poor man's Kerry Collins. But he is rarely at his best. And that's part of the reason that his record as a starter is 21-40. It is not a coincidence.

Bortles isn't the only reason that it is easy to be sour on the Jaguars heading into this season. This team was with the beneficiary of a plus-10 turnover ratio and several defensive touchdowns. They were incredibly fortunate with their injury luck, losing just 38 total starts. And they were also statistical overachievers on offense and defense relative to yards and points.

On the other hand, though, the Jaguars outscored their opponents by 149 points. They came up short of their Pythagorean win total by nearly two games last year, meaning that they should have been a 12-win team rather than the 10-win group they were. That means they really were better than they seemed.

If Jacksonville can beat the Giants in Week 1 then the Jaguars have an opportunity for a great start. Their next three games - and five of their seven games following the opener - are at home.

The AFC South is the worst division in football. By a large margin. So it is tough to ever say that the Jaguars have a difficult schedule. But Houston and Indianapolis will both be improved if their quarterbacks, both returning from injury, can stay healthy. Beyond that the Jaguars have games versus the AFC East and the NFC East, perhaps the next two weakest divisions. That means even if this year's squad is worse that the Jaguars can still put some wins together.

If you play good defense and run the ball, you can win the NFL. Period. The Jaguars can do both. However, I can't ignore all the stats that suggest that last season was a fluke, nor can I overlook just how bad Bortles can be. This is going to be a tough team to bet on or against this season. But I will trust my first instinct and start by playing them 'under'.

Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past seven years, earning nearly $28,000 in total football profit. He has also posted seven of nine winning seasons (including back-to-back winning years) and produced 26 of 41 winning football months and an amazing 45 of 70 winning football months over the past decade. Robert has eight of 10 winning NFL preseasons and he is at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 900 totals picks. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System has posted three of five winning seasons. Robert is looking for a third straight winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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