2018 Indianapolis Colts Season Win Totals Predictions and Expert Picks

2017 Record: 4-12

2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 7.5*

2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Under'

It's been a slow, steady decline for the Colts franchise. This team won 11 games in each of the 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons. Then they dipped down to just 8-8 in both 2015 and 2016. And then last year they slid down to the NFL dregs with just four victories, the fifth straight season in which they failed to increase their win total from the previous season.

But now that Andrew Luck is back, the Colts are hoping that their luck will turn. The franchise quarterback has missed the bulk of the last three seasons, playing in just 22 of Indianapolis' last 48 games. Even with Luck, the Colts are just 10-12 in his last 22 starts and just 10-16 in the games without him.

That doesn't mean that Luck can't be a difference-maker for this team. But it does tell me that they have some serious holes on the roster that he won't be able to gloss over.

The Colts, upon watching Luck get bludgeoned most of his first five years in the league, have finally invested in their offensive line. While I wouldn't call it a team strength, it has at least improved. Indy has one of the worst running back groups in the league. And outside of T.Y. Hilton, they lack many bona fide receiving threats.

I wouldn't say that things are dire on the defensive end. But they are pretty close. The Colts have had the No. 30 total defense in each of the last two years. And they haven't finished better than No. 22 in either yards allowed or points allowed in any of the last three seasons.

Matt Eberflus is a first-time defensive coordinator. And he is going to be guiding one of the youngest defenses in football. The Colts could have two rookie starters and five first-year players on the two-deep. In all, 11 of their top 22 defensive players would be in either their first or second season in the NFL.

The Colts were outscored by nearly nine points per game last season. That's a lot of ground to make up, with or without a healthy Luck. He gives the franchise hope. But as I look at this team I see one of the weakest rosters in the league. And I can't see all that much improvement, no matter who is under center.

If we are going to see improvement out of this team, it is going to be in the second half of the year. After their home opener they have to play four of their next five - and five of seven - games on the road. However, after their Week 9 bye the colts have three straight home games and they get five of their next seven in Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Colts are going to pull some upsets and cause a little havoc. Luck has always been a backdoor cover waiting to happen. But the Colts don't look like a .500 team to me. Just because they have a name-brand, "franchise" quarterback that doesn't mean that they aren't rebuilding. This is an easy 'under' call for me.

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