NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys

Well, 0-for-2 on the Saints' game last Thursday night against the Falcons, although I don't feel bad for taking Atlanta and the over. I watched that game in its entirety and the Falcons frankly outplayed New Orleans in a few regards and outgained the Saints 366-312. The difference being that Atlanta turned it over four times, three times in the red zone, and New Orleans just once.

Do I dare go against the scorching-hot Saints this Thursday when they travel to Dallas? Well, read on. New Orleans (10-1) could clinch the NFC South for the second year in a row, but it wouldn't happen Thursday. The Saints would need a victory and the Panthers (6-5) to lose Sunday at Tampa Bay - which is suddenly looking quite possible with Carolina on a three-game losing streak and a vastly worse team on the road. New Orleans needs to keep the pedal to the metal to at least stay even with the Rams for the potential top seed in the NFC. New Orleans is the Bovada Super Bowl favorite at +300, just ahead of the Rams (+320).

The NFC East, meanwhile, has Dallas (6-5) tied for first with Washington, but I've already written off the Redskins after losing Alex Smith to that terrible injury. Shoot, I think Washington wins just one more game: Week 14 vs. the Giants. No, it's Philadelphia (5-6) that the Cowboys need to worry about for the division. Those teams play in Big D next Sunday with Dallas looking for the season sweep. The Cowboys are -165 favorites at Bovada to take the division.

Saints at Cowboys Betting Story Lines

Teams can't play at an extremely high level for 16 straight regular-season games in the NFL. It's just too grueling of a sport. There's a reason only two clubs have finished unbeaten in a regular season and only three winless (in a 16-game schedule). I though the Saints might scuffle last Thursday, especially with Brees really thin at receiver due to injuries (Tre'Quan Smith and Brandon Marshall were out). He threw for only 171 yards but had four touchdowns, all to guys I know you have never heard of unless a Saints diehard: Tommylee Lewis, Austin Carr, Dan Arnold and Keith Kirkwood. Sounds like an old hard rock band. All four entered the NFL as undrafted free agents within the past three years. Brees has tied Matt Ryan's NFL record by hitting 13 different receivers for TDs this season.

While Brees gets all the pub and is in a two-man race with Patrick Mahomes to win his first MVP Award, the New Orleans defense looks nothing like the horrible unit it was early in the year. Two of the four forced turnovers vs. Atlanta came inside the New Orleans 3, the Saints had a season-high six sacks and stopped the Falcons twice on fourth down. Again, how did this team allow 48 points in a Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay or 37 to the Falcons in Week 3?

No question the matchup that will decide this one is Ezekiel Elliott against the Saints' No. 1-ranked run defense, which surrendered just 26 yards to Atlanta - fewest given up by the franchise in game since 2000. The Cowboys are 5-1 this year when Elliott rushes for 100, and he had 121 and a touchdown in the 31-23 win over Washington earlier on Thanksgiving.

You know he'll be good, but what was a terrific sign for Dallas was Amari Cooper blowing up for eight catches, 180 yards and two scores. The Saints are No. 30 against the pass. Would the Cowboys actually put this in Dak Prescott's hands to win? I have trouble seeing that, but he at least needs to keep the Saints honest so they can't sell out to stop Elliott. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones expects stud left tackle Tyron Smith (neck, elbow) to play in Week 13. He was active but didn't play any snaps on Thanksgiving.

One interesting link here is Saints coach Sean Payton, a former Dallas assistant. You hear every year how Jones lusts after the chance to hire Payton, but that opportunity clearly has gone by the wayside now. Plus, Jason Garrett might actually save his job after all.

Saints at Cowboys Betting Odds and Trends

At 5Dimes , New Orleans is an 8-point favorite (+110) with a total of 52.5. On the moneyline, the Saints are -340 and Cowboys +280. On the alternate lines, the Saints are -8.5 (+115), -7.5 (+105), -7 (-115) and -6.5 (-135). New Orleans is 9-2 against the spread (5-0 on road) and 5-6 "over/under" (2-3 on road). Dallas is 6-5 ATS (3-2 at home) and 5-6 O/U (4-1 at home).

The Saints are on a nine-game ATS winning streak. They are 4-1 ATS in their past five on Thursday. The Cowboys are 15-7-1 ATS in their past 23 following an ATS win. The under is 8-3 in the Saints' past 11 after scoring at least 30 points in their previous game. The under is 9-1 in the Cowboys' past 10 after a win. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 meetings.

Saints at Cowboys Betting Prediction

Take nothing from the last meeting as it was in 2015 when Prescott was at Mississippi State and Elliott at Ohio State. I'm going against the Saints again. Dallas has been very good at home this year other than that Monday night loss to the Titans, and the Cowboys "need" this more. Take the 8.5 points and go under.

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