NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

With all due respect to 49ers fans, no one wants to watch your crappy team since you lost Jimmy Garoppolo to a season-ending injury. So, thank goodness for the NBC's opportunity to flex games later in the season out of the Sunday night window. San Francisco's Week 7 home game was flexed out, and good thing since the Niners were predictably destroyed by the Rams.

This Sunday, San Francisco is in Seattle in a game that shouldn't be close so NBC gave the Niners the boot again. It couldn't put the Vikings in the SNF game for a third straight week or it probably would have grabbed Vikings-Patriots. Instead, it's a very important AFC matchup between the Chargers and Steelers from Pittsburgh.

Los Angeles (8-3) could potentially finish with the second-best record in the AFC yet be a wild-card team because the Kansas City Chiefs are ahead of them in the AFC West. Those teams play in K.C. in Week 15 in one of the biggest games left in 2018. The Chargers would be the AFC's No. 5 seed as things stand and, yes, visit Pittsburgh on Wild-Card Weekend. Baltimore would be the other wild-card team and visit Houston.

The Steelers (7-3-1) have a two-game lead over Baltimore in the loss column in the AFC North, with them having split their two meetings. The second tiebreaker is division record, and Pittsburgh is 3-1-1 and the Ravens 2-3. Thus, that race is about over. The Bengals and Browns aren't going to be factors there (maybe for a wild card). Pittsburgh still has eyes on at least the No. 2 seed in the AFC, which could come down to the team's Week 15 home game vs. the Patriots. So, yeah, Week 15 will rock.

Chargers at Steelers Betting Story Lines

Let's just say right now it would take very extenuating circumstances for me to choose a West Coast team to win at an East Coast cold-weather outdoor stadium this time of year. The Chargers do catch a break in that this game is no longer at 10 a.m. Pacific time, but the forecast for Sunday night is temperatures around 42. I guess it could be worse and at least no snow, but still an advantage for the home side.

Realistically, any shot the Chargers had of winning this game vanished last Sunday when Pro Bowl running back Melvin Gordon went down with an MCL injury. The diagnosis actually was pretty good news as Gordon is listed as week-to-week instead of done for the year. He's not playing here, and I'd imagine at least one more game. Huge loss as Gordon is as good as any back with 802 yard and nine TDs rushing and 44 catches for 453 yards and four scores.

Austin Ekeler and rookie Justin Jackson will take over, but let's just assume Philip Rivers passes more than usual. Rivers is having perhaps his best year and last week was unconscious, setting an NFL record by completing his first 25 passes in a blowout of the Cardinals (record to start game, tied record for overall) and also finishing with a league-best mark of 96.6 percent (28-for-29) and three scores. Rivers has thrown for at least two TDs in every game. He won't win MVP, but deserves to perhaps finish third behind Drew Brees (whom he used to back up) and Patrick Mahomes.

This writer thought the Steelers were set up for a bit of a trap in the altitude of Denver last Sunday and they were, losing 24-17 to snap a six-game winning streak. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 462 yards but had two picks - I don't know what he was thinking at the Denver 2 with just over a minute left. Truly one of the worst interceptions Big Ben has ever thrown. That's five total interceptions the past two games. Roethlisberger will go through a stretch like this at times, especially on the road.

James Conner has been a godsend in place of Le'Veon Bell, but Conner has had some costly turnovers this season and did again vs. Denver. The Steelers have somewhat gone away from him of late, too, as Conner has totaled 22 carries for 78 yards and no scores the past two weeks. Conner has averaged 11.7 rushing attempts per game from Weeks 10-12, compared to 22 per game from Weeks 6-9.

Chargers at Steelers Betting Odds and Trends

At 5Dimes , Pittsburgh is a 3-point favorite (-130) with a total of 51.5. On the moneyline, the Steelers are -185 and Chargers +160. On the alternate lines, the Steelers are -3.5 (-105), -2.5 (-155) and -4 (+103). Los Angeles is 6-5 against the spread (4-1 on road) and 6-5 "over/under" (3-2 on road). Pittsburgh is 6-4-1 ATS (3-2 at home) and 6-5 O/U (4-1 at home).

The Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their past eight following a cover and 2-7 ATS in their previous nine in December. The Steelers have covered six straight following a loss. They are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 in Week 13. The under is 8-3 in the Chargers' past 11 on the road. It's 5-1 in Pittsburgh's previous six vs. the AFC. L.A. is 2-5 ATS in its past seven in the Steel City.

Chargers at Steelers Betting Prediction

Don't really take much from the last meeting as it was in 2015, a 24-20 Steelers win in San Diego. Bolts won last trip to Pittsburgh in 2012 but lost their previous six there. Yeah, the weather, no Gordon … I like the Chargers as a team and think they could make the Super Bowl. But I'll give the 2.5 points here and go under.

Want free NFL picks? Doc's has you covered. New clients can take advantage of this great offer of $60 in free Doc's Sports members' picks for any handicapper on Doc's Expert Handicapper list. Just check out these guys' pages and see what great work they have done making money for themselves and their clients over the years. Get $60 worth of premium members' picks free . Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details . Get free NFL picks weekly on Doc's Sports free football picks page.

Read more articles by Alan Matthews