2017 Pittsburgh Steelers Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions

Look, no team is likely going to win a playoff game in New England this season barring a Tom Brady injury or something similar. The Patriots are loaded. So if any AFC team has a chance of knocking off the defending Super Bowl champions, it probably needs to get home-field advantage. Perhaps no club and, specifically, quarterback needs that more than Ben Roethlisberger.

It has been trending this way for a while, but the Steelers' Roethlisberger is below league average of late on the road and an All-Pro at home. Last regular season, Big Ben, who threatened retirement this offseason (yeah right), completed just 59.4 percent of his passes on the road with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions for a rating of 78.4. His rating in a fortunate divisional round win at Kansas City was 72.5, and it was 83.1 in the AFC title game loss in New England, and some of that latter number was inflated in garbage time.

Last regular season at home, Roethlisberger completed 70.8 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and five picks for a rating of 116.7 that would have been second in the NFL for a full season. He was an efficient 13 of 18 for 197 yards, two scores and a rating of 105.3 in the home wild-card win over Miami.

Meanwhile, this could be the final season in a Steelers uniform for perhaps the best all-around running back in the NFL in Le'Veon Bell. He turned down a long-term offer from the team to play on the franchise tag in 2017 and is holding out from camp (no big deal - probably saves him wear-and-tear). Bell has decided to bet on himself much like Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins. In that regard, I'd take Bell No. 1 overall in any fantasy draft, by the way. The only concern with Bell is staying on the field as he has played more than 13 games just once in his four seasons. He also has had a few off-field problems. Some team will overpay for Bell in 2018 free agency (49ers? Jets?) assuming the Steelers don't franchise him again.

Pittsburgh was 6-2 at home last season, 4-3-1 against the spread and 4-4 "over/under." The Steelers host two playoff teams in 2017: Green Bay and New England. The second half of the schedule is very home-friendly overall, but the Packers and Patriots are also in that portion. Pittsburgh has the NFL's fifth-easiest schedule overall with an opponents' combined 2016 winning percentage of .453. BetOnline list the Steelers' win total at 10.5, with the over a -130 favorite. I projected them to go 4-4 on the road, and I'll go under that win total with a 6-2 home mark again as I'm just assuming Big Ben misses at least one at Heinz Field due to injury because he usually does. I still think 10-6 will be plenty to repeat in the AFC North. Odds listed for the home team .

Sept. 17 vs. Vikings (-6): Pittsburgh should be 1-0 as it's the biggest Week 1 favorite on the board in Cleveland. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is very familiar with that high-powered Steelers offense from his days as Cincinnati's defensive coordinator. Key betting trend: Steelers 3-3 ATS at home vs. NFC North.

Oct. 8 vs. Jaguars (-9): Pittsburgh off a Week 4 trip to Baltimore. Jacksonville is the weakest opponent on the home schedule off last year's records, but I believe the Jags will be much better this year. The past five matchups in this series have been decided by an average of 5.2 points per game. Key betting trend: Steelers 10 SU & 7-3 ATS in past 10 as a home favorite of at least 9 points.

Oct. 22 vs. Bengals (-7): Steelers visit Kansas City the previous Sunday. These two franchises still hate each other from all the shenanigans in the 2015 season. Pittsburgh beat the visiting Bengals 24-16 in Week 2 last year. Big Ben threw for 259 yards and three scores (but two picks), while DeAngelo Williams rushed 32 times for 94 yards and caught a TD in place of a suspended Bell. Key betting trend: Steelers 6-4 ATS in past 10 as home favorite of at least 7 points in series.

Nov. 16 vs. Titans (-6.5): Thursday night, with Pittsburgh visiting Indianapolis in Week 10. This marks the start of four straight prime-time games for the team. It will be the Steelers' first look at Marcus Mariota as the last meeting was in 2014 (27-24 Pittsburgh road win). Key betting trend: Steelers 6-4 ATS in past 10 at home vs. AFC South.

Nov. 26 vs. Packers (-3): Sunday night. The last time future Hall of Famers Aaron Rodgers and Roethlisberger face off? Probably as I don't see Roethlisberger still in the league in four years as he has said he might retire after this year (yeah right) … unless the teams meet in the Super Bowl over the next couple of seasons. Of course, they did meet in SB XLV, a Green Bay win. Key betting trend: Steelers 6-3-1 ATS in past 10 as home favorite of 3 points or fewer.

Dec. 10 vs. Ravens (-6): Also Sunday night and the Steelers on a short week after visiting Cincinnati on Monday in Week 13. Pittsburgh clinched the AFC North with a thrilling 31-27 home win over Baltimore in Week 16 last year. Antonio Brown scored the winner in the final seconds on a 4-yard TD pass where Brown did all the work to lunge into the end zone. Roethlisberger threw for 279 yards and three scores, while Bell had 20 carries for 122 and a TD. Key betting trend: Steelers 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS as home favorite of at least 6 points in series.

Dec. 17 vs. Patriots (+1.5): This probably is must win for Pittsburgh to have any shot at home-field advantage over the Patriots, although I'm doubting that New England finishes anywhere close to a 10-6 record I project for the Steelers. Tom Brady has 22 touchdowns to zero interceptions in his past seven games against Pittsburgh. The Steelers lost at home in the regular season last year to the Pats without Big Ben, 27-16, and then were manhandled in the AFC title game in Foxboro, 36-17. Key betting trend: Steelers 6-2-2 ATS in past 10 as home dog.

Dec. 31 vs. Browns (TBA): Per usual, no Week 17 lines. About the best home finale one could ask for if it matters for the Steelers. Short week, though, as Pittsburgh visits Houston on Christmas afternoon. Last year's home finale was also vs. Cleveland and the Steelers had nothing to play for. They rested most key guys and escaped with a 27-24 OT victory. Key betting trend: Steelers 10-0 SU & 5-4-1 ATS in past 10 as home favorite in series.

Ready to bet on some NFL winners this year? Doc's Sports wants to help you get started by giving you $60 worth of picks completely free. No obligation. No salespeople to deal with. You don't even need to give us a credit card number. Click here to get started and get your free picks in minutes . Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details . Get free NFL betting picks weekly on Doc's Sports free football picks page .

Read more articles by Alan Matthews