2017 Jacksonville Jaguars Season Win Total Picks

2016 Record: 3-13

2017 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 6.0

2017 Season Win Total Picks: 'Over'

New season. New coach. New attitude at the top. But is this the same old joke of a Jaguars team?

Jacksonville has been locked in an epic duel of incompetence with Cleveland over the past decade. The Jaguars have gone 22-74 straight up and 40-52 against the spread over the last six years, one of the worst marks in the league. However, each of the past three seasons plenty of poor souls have been suckered into tabbing the Jaguars as a "sleeper" team only to watch in horror as their season went in up flames by Week 5.

Yet here we are. Heading into 2017 Jacksonville is still being sold as a "sleeper" and an "up-and-coming" team, making them an enticing "buy low" option for a lot of people.

Despite my obvious skepticism, even I will admit that there are reasons for optimism around the Jaguars. And it starts at the top. New executive vice president Tom Coughlin and new head coach Doug Marrone are both no-nonsense, old-school football guys. The hope is that their strict adherence to Old School Values trickles downthrough the roster. And I would expect the Jaguars to be a more disciplined group with a much simpler approach this fall.

Marrone's hiring means that the Jaguars will likely be more of a run-oriented team than they ever were under Gus Bradley. And with powerful backs like Leonard Fournette, T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory I would expect this team to pound the ball on the ground early and often. That change in offensive philosophy would help take some pressure off beleaguered quarterback Blake Bortles, whose turnover issues have crushed this team each of his first three years.

Jacksonville's primary weakness isn't tough to pinpoint. They finished -16 in turnover differential last season after finishing -15 in 2015. Not even stacked teams with elite talent - which Jacksonville is not - can overcome turnover numbers like that. On one hand, turnovers can be kind of fluky and cyclical. On the other hand, the Jaguars have proven that this is a systemic issue rather than simple bad luck.

More ball control and fewer turnovers would clearly help their sorry defense. The Jaguars have been No. 25 or worse in points allowed in five straight seasons. Jacksonville is hoping that veteran free agents (Calais Campbell, A.J. Bouye and Barry Church) and better health and production out of some young players (Myles Jack, Dante Fowler) will lead to a vastly improved stop unit.

The Jaguars do several indicators pointing toward a bounce back year. They underachieved against their Pythagorean win total by three full games, meaning they played like a 6-10 team last year, not a 3-13 one. For comparison, in 2015 Tennessee was -2.5 compared to their PWT, and they tripled their win total from three to nine last season.

But Jacksonville has gone 2-8 against its season win total over the last nine years, including five straight failures. That makes them almost impossible to trust with your money. And the AFC South, which has been a joke most of the past 15 years, should actually be competitive this year. Yet if I had to choose I would say to go against the grain and play 'over' with this one.

Jaguars Regular Season Schedule (All times Eastern)

Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past five years, earning nearly $14,000 in total football profit. He has also posted five of seven winning seasons (including a winning 2016-17) and Robert tallied over $20,000 in football profit between 2011 and 2016, including his amazing 2013 NFL season in which he hit 62.1 percent (95-58). Robert has produced 18 of 29 winning football months and an amazing 41 of 64 winning football months over the past decade. Robert has eight of 10 winning NFL preseasons and he is at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 800 totals picks. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System has posted three of five winning seasons Robert is looking to follow up a winning 2016 with more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR EARLY BIRD SPECIALS !

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