2017 Indianapolis Colts Season Win Total Picks

2016 Record: 8-8

2017 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 9.0

2017 Season Win Total Prediction: 'Under'

Wait, so Andrew Luck isn't the Next Tom Brady?

Anyone that has ready or listened to my analysis over the last five years knows I think that Luck is one of the most overrated players in football. I still firmly believe that. But at this point even I have to admit that there is a lot of organizational instability unpinning the Colts' back-to-back 8-8 seasons.

If the Colts were barely a .500 team with Luck, we could be about to find out just what they are without him. Luck underwent offseason labrum surgery and he reportedly has not done any throwing since the n. Luck has not taken the field yet at Colts training camp, and according to the coaching staff there is "no timetable for his return". That's a problem.

The Colts have no Plan B. And the uncertainty around Luck's shoulder and availability this season has led many sportsbooks to pull their Indianapolis Colts season win total from the board. If Luck can't go for, say, more than half of this season then this Colts roster isn't appreciably better than the one that went 2-14 in the year prior to Luck's drafting.

Indianapolis has utterly failed to revamp one of the worst offensive lines in football over the past four seasons. They are stuck relying on 58-year-old Frank Gore to anchor the running game behind said line. And outside of T.Y. Hilton the receiving corps is long on physical tools but short on actual production.

Defensively, this group still doesn't have any sort of identity. They were No. 30 in total defense last season, and other than signing John Hankins and Sean Spence I don't see many upgrades. The Colts are going younger - especially in the secondary, where as many as three rookies could see time in their base nickel - on this side of the ball. But that doesn't mean they are going to be any better.

But it all comes back to Luck. If he can't play this season then I expect the Colts win total to plummet to around 5.5. Even if he does play the books will likely drop this line from the open of 9.0 to somewhere around 8.0 or 8.5.

With games against the Rams, Browns and 49ers in the first five weeks of the season the Colts should be able to keep their heads above water. However, once November hits the schedule ramps into overdrive. They play three of their last five on the road with potential cold weather games in Buffalo and Baltimore. They also have to take on Denver on a short week and end the season against two-time defending division champ Houston. Nothing easy there.

Regardless of Luck's status, I don't see this team improving from last year's campaign. None of my standard metrics point toward any type of bounce back, and there are no statistical outliers to point to as silver linings from last year's campaign. They simply weren't any better than average last year and aren't any better this season, with or without their "star" quarterback. Play 'under'.

Indianapolis Colts Regular Season Schedule (All times EST)

Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past five years, earning nearly $14,000 in total football profit. He has also posted five of seven winning seasons (including a winning 2016-17) and Robert tallied over $20,000 in football profit between 2011 and 2016, including his amazing 2013 NFL season in which he hit 62.1 percent (95-58). Robert has produced 18 of 29 winning football months and an amazing 41 of 64 winning football months over the past decade. Robert has eight of 10 winning NFL preseasons and he is at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 800 totals picks. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System has posted three of five winning seasons Robert is looking to follow up a winning 2016 with more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR EARLY BIRD SPECIALS !

We are offering new clients $60 in free college football picks for Robert's picks or any Advisory Board handicapper of your choosing. Get your free college football picks now !

Read more articles by Robert Ferringo