2017 Houston Texans Season Win Total Picks

2016 Record: 9-7

2017 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 8.5

2017 Season Win Total Picks: 'Under'

It is at the point now where my Texans preview is simply a song stuck on repeat. "The offense is a train wreck. The defense is stacked. The division sucks, so they have a chance to make the playoffs and get crushed. The end."

At least now we know who the Texans are. Last year at this time I couldn't decide if their 2015 division title and postseason appearance were aberrations or if this team was any good. Now we know that the Texans are a low-budget version of Kansas City, a team good enough to win some games but a group with a ceiling of January fodder.

I just can't take a team with Tom Savage at quarterback seriously. And neither should you. But then again, the Texans have won nine games each of the past three seasons despite starting a Swifter, a garden gnome, and a pile of dried leaves at quarterback. So can Savage - or the desperation heave of starting rookie Deshaun Watson - really be that big of a drop-off?

Houston has done some offensive line shuffling this offseason. And heading into camp their biggest issue is the holdout of tackle Duane Brown. I expect Brown to show up in time for actual action. But if he doesn't then things could significantly regress for a group that scored a touchdown on just 13 percent of their drives in 2016, second-worst in the NFL.

The skill position players are pretty nondescript. DeAndre Hopkins is an outstanding receiver. But he faces constant double teams because Houston has no one on the other side (or in the slot; or at tight end) to make other teams nervous. Lamar Miller is a perfectly average back. And on the whole this offense rates out at a solid C-.

The Texans do still have a dominant defense, however.

J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are freaks of nature and give the Texans the best pair of defensive ends in football. However, they are so freakishly beyond the norms of the human body that both have become huge injury risks. Clowney has missed more games than he's played since being drafted. And Watt's back injury, which stole his 2016 season, could become a perpetual and career-threatening affliction. If this duo plays 16 games together this team should lead in the NFL in total defense for a second straight season.

(Can I also say that I think that Watt and Clowney are dominating despite playing somewhat out of position? Imagine these two in a 4-3 scheme where their primary focus was just rushing the passer rather than their current 3-4 scheme, which loads them with other responsibilities. I think these two could combine for 35-40 sacks if they played in a 4-3.)

Houston's back seven is rock solid as well. The linebacking corps is young, athletic and talented. And their secondary features a stellar cornerback duo of Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson. However, their safeties are suspect, and this team could really miss Quentin Demps.

Houston is the de facto favorite in the AFC South by virtue of back-to-back backed-into titles. In fact, Houston has won the division in four of the past six years and, because of their defense and coaching stability, they probably have the fewest question marks in the division. With four of their first six games at home, including two divisional home games, the Texans have a chance to get off to a fast start. But they close with four of six on the road and crossover games with the NFC West (as well as a road game at New England) will be a bear.

I don't think the Texans are going to win this division again this season. But I do think they will be close. I will call for them to go 8-8, and after nailing their win total the past two seasons I will go the other way and take this one 'under'.

Texans Regular Season Schedule (All times Eastern)

Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past five years, earning nearly $14,000 in total football profit. He has also posted five of seven winning seasons (including a winning 2016-17) and Robert tallied over $20,000 in football profit between 2011 and 2016, including his amazing 2013 NFL season in which he hit 62.1 percent (95-58). Robert has produced 18 of 29 winning football months and an amazing 41 of 64 winning football months over the past decade. Robert has eight of 10 winning NFL preseasons and he is at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 800 totals picks. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System has posted three of five winning seasons Robert is looking to follow up a winning 2016 with more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR EARLY BIRD SPECIALS !

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