2017 Green Bay Packers Season Win Total Picks

Who really cares if/when Aaron Rodgers signs a new contract extension that will surely make him the highest-paid player in NFL history? What we all want to know is if he's going to get back together with actress Olivia Munn! Rodgers reportedly dumped her back in April. That just makes me hate the Packers more. Believe it or not, their breakup might have been fallout from Aaron's brother being on that stupid TV show "The Bachelor."

My attempts to contact Olivia have been futile thus far, so I guess we'll stick with writing about football. You should never judge the Packers on their offseason because they never "win" it like recent teams such as Washington or Tampa Bay or Miami or whomever supposedly did by adding the big-ticket free agents. More often than not, that fails.

Green Bay is a conservative franchise that would rather re-sign its own players, and you can't argue with the success. Well, lucking into Brett Favre and Rodgers helps a bit too. The Pack did dip their toes in free agency a bit this offseason, though, adding tight end Martellus Bennett, who could be a monster with Rodgers, guard Jahri Evans and cornerback Davon House. All those were positions of need.

I happen to believe the Packers will regret not taking Florida State running back Dalvin Cook at the top of the second round in April's draft. Green Bay lost Eddie Lacy in free agency to Seattle and appears set to ride converted receiver Ty Montgomery as its featured back. He has bulked up and would make a fantasy stud if your league still qualifies him as a receiver, which it should. The Pack did take three running backs in the draft but not until the fourth round and later.

Clearly the biggest weakness on this team last year was the secondary. That was obvious to anyone who saw what Matt Ryan's Falcons did to the Packers in the NFC title game. Instead of taking Cook, the Pack grabbed Washington cornerback Kevin King with that pick and then NC State safety Josh Jones later in the second round. Both will be pushed into immediate playing time, with King likely to start.

The Packers were 6-2 at home last season, 5-2-1 against the spread and 4-4 "over/under." Green Bay hosts just two playoff teams in 2017: Seattle and Detroit. Both come with extra time to prepare. Just one stretch of back-to-back weeks at home (one two-game stretch split by the week off). The Packers have the 18th-toughest schedule overall with an opponents' combined 2016 winning percentage of .480. BetOnline lists their win total at 10.5, with the under a -130 favorite. I projected a 4-4 road record and forecast another 6-2 home mark, so lean under that total. Going 10-6 again should be plenty for the NFC North. Odds listed for the home team.

Sept. 10 vs. Seahawks ( -3): This could have home-field playoff ramifications just like the teams' Week 1 2014 meeting did. Green Bay is 10-3 against the Seahawks at home during the regular and postseason, with seven straight wins. It was 38-10 in Week 14 last year. Rodgers threw for 246 yards and three TDs before leaving early in the fourth with the game a rout. Green Bay had five interceptions of Russell Wilson. Key betting trend: Packers 5-4-1 ATS in past 10 as home favorite or 3 points or fewer.

Sept. 24 vs. Bengals (-7): I'm guessing Green Bay will be 1-1 after losing Week 2 in Atlanta. The Packers try to snap a three-game losing streak against Cincinnati and get their first victory over the Bengals since 1998. Key betting trend: Pack 2-4 ATS at home vs. AFC North teams.

Sept. 28 vs. Bears (-9.5): Thursday night. Might the Pack overlook the sorry Bears a bit and be peeking ahead to a Week 5 trip to Dallas? It's the 12th straight season these two play a prime-time game and third in a row it's a Thursday night affair at Lambeau. Green Bay won 26-10 last year in Week 7. Rodgers attempted a franchise-record 56 passes and threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns. Key betting trend: Packers 4-6 ATS in past 10 as a home favorite of at least 7.5 points in series.

Oct. 22 vs. Saints (-7.5): Green Bay off a trip to Minnesota and ahead of its bye week. The Packers are 10-2 all-time at home vs. the Saints and have scored at least 21 points in every game. Pretty sure that will happen again vs. that porous New Orleans defense. Key betting trend: Packers 4-5-1 ATS in past 10 before bye week (any location).

Nov. 6 vs. Lions (-7.5): Monday night. The Packers out of their bye. Green Bay has won 25 of the past 26 in this series in the state of Wisconsin. Last season it was 34-27 in Week 3. Rodgers threw for 205 yards and all four TDs in the first half. It was 31-3 at one point, and the Lions made it respectable in garbage time. Key betting trend: Pack 5-4-1 ATS in past 10 as home favorite of at least 7 points in series.

Nov. 19 vs. Ravens (-7): Green Bay visits Chicago the previous Sunday.The Packers are 4-1 against the Ravens all-time, 3-0 at home. The team last met in 2013 in Baltimore, a 19-17 Green Bay victory. Key betting trend: Packers 4-5-1 ATS in past 10 November games as a favorite of 7 points or fewer.

Dec. 3 vs. Bucs (-7): The Pack are in Pittsburgh Sunday night Week 12. Break here in getting the warm-weather but rising Bucs in December instead of early in the season. Green Bay has won 14 of its past 15 at home in the series. Key betting trend: Pack 3-7 ATS in past 10 at NFC South teams.

Dec. 23: vs. Vikings (-6.5): Saturday night with the Packers in Carolina in Week 15. Fifth straight season these teams have met in a prime-time game. Green Bay has scored at least 23 points in 10 of its past 11 at Lambeau vs. the Vikings. It was 38-25 on Christmas Eve in 2016. Rodgers threw for 347 yards and four scores to set up a winner-take-all game with the Lions in Week 17 for the NFC North (won by Green Bay). Key betting trend: Packers 5-5 ATS in past 10 in series as a home favorite of at least 6.5 points.

Doc's NFL handicapping team is confident that a great year is ahead of them. How confident? So much that they are giving away their picks. New clients can claim $60 worth of free picks just by clicking here . No hassle. No obligation. Just great picks. Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details . Get free NFL betting picks weekly on Doc's Sports free football picks page .

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