Sunday, January 1, 2017

Sun Life Stadium

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The New England Patriots travel to Sun Life Stadium to play the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, January 1, 2017. The opening line for this game has New England as 6 point favorites and the over/under was set at 44.5. The Patriots are 12-3-0 against the spread and their over/under record is 5-10-0. The Dolphins have an over/under record of 11-4-0 and they are 9-5-1 against the spread.

Tom Brady finished with 214 yards through the air for New England last week. He completed 17 passes out of 27 attempts for a 63% completion percentage. The Patriots were led in rushing by Dion Lewis, who finished with 52 yards on 16 rushes. He ended the contest with an average of 3 yards per carry. Julian Edelman was the team leader in receiving with a total of 89 yards and 5 receptions. He finished the game with an average of 18 yards per reception. As a team in that game New England got a total of 21 first downs. Of those first downs, 6 came on the ground while 12 came through the air. They ran 70 total plays for 325 yards for the game. The Patriots ran for 114 yards on 40 attempts.

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Matt Moore finished with 233 yards passing for Miami last week. He went 16 for 30, resulting in a 53% completion percentage. The Dolphins were led on the ground by Jay Ajayi, who finished with 206 yards on 32 carries. He ended the game with an average of 6 yards per rush. DeVante Parker led the team in receiving with 85 yards and 4 catches. He finished the game with an average of 21 yards per reception. Miami had 22 first downs total. 12 came from running the ball and 10 came from a pass. They ran 68 total plays for 494 yards for the contest. The Dolphins ran for 261 yards on 38 carries as a team.

New England scores 27 points per game on offense this season, which ranks 5th in the NFL. In the passing department, they average 23 passes on 34 attempts for a 68% completion percentage this season. They throw for a total of 269 yards per game through the air as well, which ranks them 4th in the league. The Patriots run for an average of 117 yards per game on 30 attempts for an average of 3.9 yards per carry. That ranks them 8th in the league. They also run 66 plays per contest and average 5.8 yards per play for an average of 386 yards per game, ranking their offense 5th overall this season. The Patriots average 22 first downs per game which ranks them 6th in the NFL. They accumulate 50.3 penalty yards per game via 5.7 penalties, which ranks 29th in the league.

New England allows 240 passing yards per game, ranking 14th, and they allow 16 points per contest on defense, which ranks 1st. They give up 23 completions on 37 attempts per game for a completion percentage of 62%. The Patriots allow 89 rushing yards per game on 23 carries for an average of 3.9 yards per carry, which ranks their rush defense 3rd in the NFL. New England allows 330 total yards per game including 5.3 yards per play, which ranks their overall defense 8th in terms of yards per game. They get flagged for 6.9 penalties for 57.1 yards per game, ranking them 12th among NFL teams.

Miami averages 23 points per game this season on offense, which ranks them 16th in the league. In the passing department, they complete 19 passes per game on 30 attempts for a 63% completion percentage. They throw for 220 yards through the air per game, ranking them 26th. The Dolphins run for an average of 117 yards per game on 26 attempts for an average of 4.5 yards per carry this season, which ranks them 9th on the ground. They also run 57 plays per game and average 5.9 yards per play for a total of 336 yards per game, ranking them 21st in the league on offense. The Dolphins get an average of 17 first downs per game, which ranks 30th. They average 71.3 penalty yards per game via 7.7 penalties, ranking them 7th in the NFL.

Miami allows an average of 240 passing yards per game, which ranks 13th in the league. Their defense overall allows 23 points per contest, which has them ranked 14th. They give up 23 completions on 37 attempts for a completion percentage of 62% per game. The Dolphins allow 142 rushing yards per contest on 29 carries for a 4.9 average per rush, ranking their overall rush defense 30th in the NFL. Miami allows 382 total yards per game for an average of 5.6 yards per play, which ranks 30th in the league. They force 6.8 penalties for 57 yards in each contest, ranking 20th.

New England Betting Trends

New England is 5-10-0 against the over/under this season

New England has an ATS record of 12-3-0 this season

Miami Betting Trends

Miami is 11-4-0 against the over/under this season

Miami has an ATS record of 9-5-1 this season

Injuries to Watch

New England

12/25/16 LB Dont'a Hightower Knee "?" Sunday vs. Miami
12/25/16 WR Matthew Slater Foot "?" Sunday vs. Miami
12/05/16 WR Danny Amendola Ankle out indefinitely
12/04/16 TE Rob Gronkowski Back IR
10/15/16 LB Jonathan Freeny Shoulder IR
08/31/16 G Tre Jackson Knee PUP
08/30/16 T Sebastian Vollmer Hip PUP

Miami

12/25/16 CB Byron Maxwell Ankle "?" Sunday vs. New England
12/25/16 S Isa Abdul-Quddus Neck injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. New England
12/25/16 RB Jay Ajayi Shoulder injured last game, probable Sunday vs. New England
12/25/16 LB Jelani Jenkins Knee "?" Sunday vs. New England
12/14/16 DE Dion Jordan Knee out for season
12/13/16 C Mike Pouncey Hip IR
12/12/16 QB Ryan Tannehill Knee out indefinitely
11/05/16 TE Jordan Cameron Concussion IR
10/24/16 RB Arian Foster Retired out for season
10/19/16 S Reshad Jones Rotator Cuff IR
10/12/16 LB Koa Misi Neck IR
08/31/16 LB Zach Vigil Back PUP

Josh's Pick: Take New England -6

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