Sunday, December 18, 2016

Sports Authority Field

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The New England Patriots take on the Denver Broncos on Sunday, December 18, 2016 at Sports Authority Field. The opening line for this game has New England as 3 point favorites and the over/under was set at 44. The Patriots are 10-3-0 against the spread and their over/under record is 5-8-0. The Broncos have an over/under record of 6-7-0 and they are 8-5-0 against the spread.

Tom Brady finished with 406 yards through the air for New England last week. He completed 25 passes out of 38 attempts for a 66% completion percentage. The Patriots were led in rushing by LeGarrette Blount, who finished with 72 yards on 18 rushes. He ended the contest with an average of 4 yards per carry. Chris Hogan was the team leader in receiving with a total of 129 yards and 5 receptions. He finished the game with an average of 26 yards per reception. As a team in that game New England got a total of 20 first downs. Of those first downs, 6 came on the ground while 13 came through the air. They ran 65 total plays for 496 yards for the game. The Patriots ran for 95 yards on 26 attempts.

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Trevor Siemian finished with 334 yards passing for Denver last week. He went 35 for 51, resulting in a 69% completion percentage. The Broncos were led on the ground by Justin Forsett, who finished with 17 yards on 6 carries. He ended the game with an average of 3 yards per rush. Demaryius Thomas led the team in receiving with 126 yards and 10 catches. He finished the game with an average of 13 yards per reception. Denver had 19 first downs total. 0 came from running the ball and 19 came from a pass. They ran 64 total plays for 348 yards for the contest. The Broncos ran for 18 yards on 9 carries as a team.

New England scores 27 points per game on offense this season, which ranks 5th in the NFL. In the passing department, they average 24 passes on 35 attempts for a 69% completion percentage this season. They throw for a total of 280 yards per game through the air as well, which ranks them 4th in the league. The Patriots run for an average of 116 yards per game on 29 attempts for an average of 4 yards per carry. That ranks them 7th in the league. They also run 65 plays per contest and average 6.1 yards per play for an average of 396 yards per game, ranking their offense 4th overall this season. The Patriots average 22 first downs per game which ranks them 4th in the NFL. They accumulate 54.2 penalty yards per game via 6.1 penalties, which ranks 19th in the league.

New England allows 248 passing yards per game, ranking 15th, and they allow 18 points per contest on defense, which ranks 2nd. They give up 24 completions on 38 attempts per game for a completion percentage of 63%. The Patriots allow 90 rushing yards per game on 23 carries for an average of 3.9 yards per carry, which ranks their rush defense 4th in the NFL. New England allows 338 total yards per game including 5.3 yards per play, which ranks their overall defense 9th in terms of yards per game. They get flagged for 7.2 penalties for 56.2 yards per game, ranking them 10th among NFL teams.

Denver averages 23 points per game this season on offense, which ranks them 16th in the league. In the passing department, they complete 22 passes per game on 35 attempts for a 63% completion percentage. They throw for 234 yards through the air per game, ranking them 19th. The Broncos run for an average of 94 yards per game on 26 attempts for an average of 3.6 yards per carry this season, which ranks them 27th on the ground. They also run 64 plays per game and average 5.1 yards per play for a total of 328 yards per game, ranking them 25th in the league on offense. The Broncos get an average of 19 first downs per game, which ranks 23rd. They average 63.3 penalty yards per game via 7.7 penalties, ranking them 12th in the NFL.

Denver allows an average of 186 passing yards per game, which ranks 1st in the league. Their defense overall allows 19 points per contest, which has them ranked 6th. They give up 19 completions on 35 attempts for a completion percentage of 54% per game. The Broncos allow 127 rushing yards per contest on 30 carries for a 4.2 average per rush, ranking their overall rush defense 29th in the NFL. Denver allows 313 total yards per game for an average of 4.6 yards per play, which ranks 4th in the league. They force 6.5 penalties for 59.2 yards in each contest, ranking 12th.

New England Betting Trends

New England is 5-8-0 against the over/under this season

New England has an ATS record of 10-3-0 this season

Denver Betting Trends

Denver is 6-7-0 against the over/under this season

Denver has an ATS record of 8-5-0 this season

Injuries to Watch

New England

12/06/16 CB Eric Rowe Hamstring injured last game, "?" Monday vs. Baltimore
12/05/16 WR Danny Amendola Ankle out indefinitely
12/04/16 DB Jordan Richards Leg "?" Monday vs. Baltimore
12/04/16 WR Matthew Slater Foot "?" Monday vs. Baltimore
12/04/16 TE Rob Gronkowski Back IR
10/15/16 LB Jonathan Freeny Shoulder IR
10/07/16 QB Jacoby Brissett Thumb IR
08/31/16 G Tre Jackson Knee PUP
08/30/16 T Sebastian Vollmer Hip PUP

Denver

12/11/16 LB Brandon Marshall Hamstring "?" Sunday vs. New England
12/11/16 LS Casey Kreiter Ankle "?" Sunday vs. New England
12/06/16 RB Kapri Bibbs Ankle IR
11/30/16 FB Andy Janovich Ankle IR
11/09/16 DE Derek Wolfe Elbow expected to miss 3-4 weeks
10/27/16 RB C.J. Anderson Knee IR
08/31/16 TE Garrett Graham Shoulder IR

Josh's Pick: Take New England -3

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