Monday, September 14, 2015

Levi's Stadium

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The Minnesota Vikings hit the road to play the San Francisco 49ers on Monday at Levi's Stadium. The opening line for this matchup has the Vikings as 2 point favorites and the over/under was set at 41.5. The Vikings had a 10-6-0 ATS record last season, which meant they covered the spread 63% of the time. Their over/under record finished at 6-10-0. The 49ers covered the spread 40% of the time, finishing the campaign with an ATS record of 6-9-1. Their over/under record was 5-11-0.

Teddy Bridgewater leads the Vikings into this road matchup after a very bright rookie season. He threw 2,919 yards and had 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 2014. Most of the season Adrian Peterson was suspended, but he'll be back this year. In 2013 Peterson was one of the best backs in the league, rushing for 1,266 yards and 10 touchdowns. Bridgewater will lean heavily on Peterson this season, as he's always been one of the NFL's biggest workhorses. The Vikings have an inexperienced receiver group led by Charles Johnson. Johnson had 31 catches last season for 475 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he'll be much more heavily targeted this season. In terms of special teams, Blair Walsh will return as Minnesota's kicker. Walsh made 26 of 35 field goals last year, including 5 that were from over 50 yards.

The 49ers had maybe the biggest offseason turnover, losing countless defensive players and almost their entire coaching staff. Jim Harbaugh is now at Michigan, so San Francisco is hoping that the new regime can have as much success as they did in Harbaugh's tenure. One player who is back this year is Colin Kaepernick. Last season he threw for 3,369 yards with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He completed 289 passes out of 478 attempts for a 61% completion percentage. He'll hand the ball primarily to Carlos Hyde with Frank Gore now gone to Indianapolis. Hyde ran for only 333 yards last season but will be relied on much more heavily this year. He had only 4 touchdowns but most fantasy projections have him getting close to double digit touchdowns this season. Anquan Boldin will be the leading receiver for the 49ers once again. Last year he hauled in 83 passes for 1,062 yards and averaged 12.8 yards per catch. Phil Dawson will do the kicking for San Francisco. He made 25 of 31 kicks last year including 6 of over 50 yards.

The under is 5-2 in the 49ers last 7 games in September, is 6-1 in their last 7 home games, and is 6-1 in their last 7 games overall. The under is also 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass and is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The 49ers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Monday games, are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog, and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1, are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NFC, and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.

The under is 11-4-1 in the Vikings last 16 games as a road favorite, is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0 and is 4-1 in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The under is also 4-1 in the Vikings last 5 road games and is 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. The Vikings are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Monday games, are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. They are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 and are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.=

Minnesota Betting Trends

Minnesota was 6-10-0 against the over/under last season

Minnesota had an ATS record of 10-6-0 last season

San Francisco Betting Trends

San Francisco was 5-11-0 against the over/under last season

San Francisco had an ATS record of 6-9-1 last season

Injuries to Watch

Minnesota

09/04/15 CB Jabari Price Suspension expected to miss first 2 games of regular season
09/04/15 C John Sullivan Back "?" Monday vs. San Francisco
09/04/15 CB Josh Robinson Pectoral out indefinitely
08/16/15 T Phil Loadholt Achilles IR

San Francisco

09/04/15 WR Jerome Simpson Suspension expected to miss first 6 games of regular season
09/04/15 LB Ahmad Brooks Legal problems out indefinitely
08/08/15 LB Aldon Smith Legal problems has been released

Tony's Pick: Take San Francisco

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