Sunday, September 13, 2015

NRG Stadium

For Updated Odds on This Game Click Here

The Kansas City Chiefs matchup against the Houston Texans on Sunday at NRG Stadium. The opening line for this matchup has the Texans as 1.5 point favorites and the over/under was set at 41. The Chiefs had an ATS record of 10-6-0 last year, which meant they covered the spread 63% of the time. Their over/under record was 5-11-0. The Texans covered the spread 60% of the time, finishing the campaign with an ATS record of 9-6-1. Their over/under record was 8-8-0.

Alex Smith will lead the Chiefs into the 2015 season. Smith is coming off a 2014 campaign in which he threw for 3,265 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions. He completed 303 passes on 464 attempts for an average of 11 yards per pass. He'll have a new wide receiver to throw to this season in Jeremy Maclin. Maclin caught 85 passes last season for 1,318 yards and an average of 16 yards per catch. He caught 10 touchdowns last season and went for over 100 yards four times. While Maclin will be heading up the receiving corps, Jamaal Charles will lead the running game again this season. He rushed for 1,033 yards and scored nine touchdowns during the 2014 season. Charles is also dangerous as a receiver, going for 291 yards on 40 receptions.

The Houston Texans will be led by a new face, Brian Hoyer. Hoyer beat out Ryan Mallett for the starting quarterback spot and will try to lead a Texans team that lost many weapons via free agency and injury. Hoyer threw for 3,334 yards last season while throwing 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions through 14 games. He completed 243 passes out of 439 attempts for a completion percentage of 55%. Hoyer will have a more difficult time with Andre Johnson heading to the Indianapolis Colts this offseason. DeAndre Hopkins will be the focus of the passing game this year. Hopkins had 76 receptions last season for 1,210 yards. He scored six touchdowns and went for over 100 yards four times last season. In the running game, Arian Foster went down with an injury in the preseason so they'll start the season with Alfred Blue as the number one running back. Blue carried the ball 169 times last season for 528 yards. He scored two touchdowns and went for over 100 yards just one time.

In recent headlines for the Chiefs, tight end Travis Kelce has a 'slightly' sprained ankle. However, he did practice on Sunday and is looking good to play in their first game on Sunday. In addition to Kelce looking like he'll be playing, nose tackle Dontari Poe has a chance to play on Sunday. He is returning from back surgery and even if he doesn't play, he's recovering well and will be returning soon.

For the Texans, Adam Schefter is reporting that Arian Foster could return in four weeks but could be sidelined for up to six weeks.

The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in September and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. the AFC. The under is 5-1 in the Chiefs last 6 road games, 4-1 in their last 5 games overall and 6-2 in their last 8 games in September. The under is 6-2 in their last 8 vs. the AFC, 7-3 in their last 10 games in Week 1 and 42-19-1 in their last 62 games on grass.

The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1 and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games. The under is 5-2 in the Texans last 7 games overall, 5-2 in their last 7 vs. AFC and 7-3 in their last 10 games in Week 1. The over is 7-3 in their last 10 games in September.

Head to head, the road team is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 meetings.

Kansas City Betting Trends

Kansas City was 5-11-0 against the over/under last season

Kansas City had an ATS record of 10-6-0 last season

Houston Betting Trends

Houston was 8-8-0 against the over/under last season

Houston had an ATS record of 9-6-1 last season

Injuries to Watch

Kansas City

09/04/15 DT Dontari Poe Back "?" Sunday vs. Houston
09/04/15 CB Sean Smith Suspension expected to miss first 3 games of regular season
09/02/15 TE Travis Kelce Ankle probable Sunday vs. Houston

Houston

09/04/15 QB Tom Savage Shoulder out indefinitely
08/04/15 RB Arian Foster Groin out indefinitely

Guy's Pick: Take Kansas City

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