Sunday, September 13, 2015

Ralph Wilson Stadium

For Updated Odds on This Game Click Here

The Indianapolis Colts take on the Buffalo Bills on Sunday at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The opening line for this matchup has the Colts as 2.5 point favorites and the over/under was set at 46.5. The Colts had a 12-6-1 ATS record last season, meaning they covered the spread 67% of the time. Their over/under record was 9-9-1. The Bills finished with an ATS record of 9-7-0, covering the spread 56% of the time. Their over/under record finished at 3-13-0.

The Colts come into this game with one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. Andrew Luck will look to continue on a career that has only headed in an upward trajectory. Luck finished 2014 with 4,761 yards with 380 completions out of 616 attempts for a completion percentage of 62%. He threw 40 touchdowns and 16 interceptions and had 10 games in which he threw for over 300 yards. Adding to an already lethal offense, the Colts added Andre Johnson and Frank Gore. However, the number one receiver on this team is T.Y. Hilton. Hilton finished 2014 having caught 82 passes for 1,345 yards. He finished with seven touchdowns and also had six games in which he finished with over 100 yards receiving. Frank Gore will be the starting running back for the Colts this season. Gore had 1,106 rushing yards last season and finished with four rushing touchdowns and four games in which he gained over 100 rushing yards. He gained his 1,106 yards on 255 rushes giving him an average of 4.3 yards per carry.

On the other side of the field stand the Buffalo Bills, who made the decision to have Tyrod Taylor open as the Bills starter. Taylor played in one game last year in which he had four rushing attempts for -3 yards. Rex Ryan was quoted as saying Taylor was chosen because of his explosiveness. It clearly wasn't because of his passing because he's never been known to be a great passer. With Taylor at the helm, one gets the feeling the Bills will rely heavily on LeSean McCoy. McCoy came over from the Eagles in a year where he ran the ball 314 times for 1,319 yards, giving him an average of 4.2 yards per carry. He ran for five touchdowns and also had four games in which he rushed for over 100 yards. McCoy is also a capable receiver and caught 28 passes last year for 155 yards. The Bills will also work to get the ball into Sammy Watkins' hands as the dangerous receiver is a star in the making. Watkins finished 2014 with 982 yards on 65 receptions giving him an average of 15 yards per catch.

The Colts are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in September and 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. the AFC. They are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games overall and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1. The over is 4-0 in the Colts last 4 games in September. The under is 6-1 in their last 7 games overall and 6-1 in their last 7 vs. the AFC. The under is also 4-1 in their last 5 road games and 7-3 in their last 10 games in Week 1.

The Bills are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games overall and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the AFC. The under is 5-0 in the Bills last 5 games in September, 5-0 in their last 5 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 games on turf. The under is 6-1 in their last 7 vs. the AFC, 13-3 in their last 16 games overall and 12-4 in their last 16 games in Week 1.

Head to head, the favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings and Colts are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Buffalo and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

Indianapolis Betting Trends

Indianapolis was 9-9-1 against the over/under last season

Indianapolis had an ATS record of 12-6-1 last season

Buffalo Betting Trends

Buffalo was 3-13-0 against the over/under last season

Buffalo had an ATS record of 9-7-0 last season

Injuries to Watch

Indianapolis

09/05/15 DE Arthur Jones Ankle IR
09/04/15 RB Dan Herron Shoulder "?" Sunday vs. Buffalo
09/04/15 LB Robert Mathis Achilles doubtful Sunday vs. Buffalo
08/31/15 WR T.Y. Hilton Concussion probable Sunday vs Buffalo

Buffalo

09/04/15 LB Ty Powell Knee IR
09/04/15 DE Jarius Wynn ACL out for season
09/04/15 CB Leodis McKelvin Knee doubtful Sunday vs. Indianapolis
09/04/15 DT Marcell Dareus Suspension expected to miss Sunday vs. Indianapolis
09/04/15 WR Marquise Goodwin Ribs "?" Sunday vs. Indianapolis
09/02/15 RB LeSean McCoy Hamstring "?" Sunday vs. Indianapolis
08/31/15 QB Tyrod Taylor None expected to start Sunday vs. Indianapolis Colts

Josh's Pick: Take Indianapolis

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