Sunday, September 13, 2015

Sports Authority Field

For Updated Odds on This Game Click Here

The Baltimore Ravens take on the Denver Broncos on Sunday at Sports Authority Field. The opening line for this matchup has the Broncos as 4.5 point favorites and the over/under was set at 49.5. The Ravens had a 9-8-1 ATS record last season, which meant they covered the spread 53% of the time. Their over/under record finished at 8-9-1. The Broncos covered the spread 47% of the time, finishing the campaign with an ATS record of 8-9-0. Their over/under record was 10-7-0.

Joe Flacco leads Baltimore into this game looking to continue his stellar career. Last year he threw for 3,986 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He completed 344 out of 555 attempts for a completion percentage of 62%. Last season was his best in terms of passing yards per game at 249 per contest. He'll be handing the ball to Justin Forsett most of the time. Forsett is coming off a 2014 season that saw him run for 1,266 yards on 235 carries. His 5.4 average was one of the best in the league. Forsett can catch a little bit as well, as he hauled in 44 passes last year for an additional 263 yards. Flacco's best returning receiver is Steve Smith Sr. Smith caught 79 passes for 1,065 yards last season and is a very reliable possession receiver. Smith was ejected from the 3rd preseason game for getting in a scuffle, but the Ravens don't seem concerned that his behavior will carry into the regular season. Smith is a veteran guy who leads by example, and he'll be relied on heavily this season in the passing game. Justin Tucker returns as the kicker for Baltimore. Last season he made 29 of 34 field goals, with all 5 of his misses coming on kicks that were 50 yards or more.

Peyton Manning leads a new look Denver team into the 2015 season, and he says he feels completely healthy. Manning had a good year last year, but he once again couldn't finish the job in the playoffs, losing to his former team the Colts. Peyton threw for 4,727 yards with 39 touchdowns to 15 interceptions. He completed 395 of his 597 passes for a completion percentage of 66%. C.J. Anderson will handle the bulk of the running duties in Gary Kubiak's new offense. Anderson finished last season with 849 yards on 179 carries. The Broncos are hoping his 4.7 yards per carry average can maintain once his workload increases. Manning's best returning receiver is Demaryius Thomas. Last year Thomas caught 111 passes for 1,619 yards, and the Broncos will look for him to continue his superb play. Brandon McManus will once again handle the kicking duties for the Broncos. Last season he made 9 of 13 field goals, but was 0 for 2 from beyond 50 yards.

The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1, and are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-1-1 in the Ravens last 6 games overall, is 4-1-1 in their last 6 vs. the AFC, and is 5-2 in their last 7 games in September. The over is 9-3-1 in the Ravens last 13 games on grass and is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games.

The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on grass and are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. The over is 5-0 in the Broncos last 5 games in Week 1, is 5-2 in their last 7 games in September, and is 5-2 in their last 7 home games. The under is 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.

In head to head matchups, the over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. The Ravens are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Baltimore Betting Trends

Baltimore was 8-9-1 against the over/under last season

Baltimore had an ATS record of 9-8-1 last season

Denver Betting Trends

Denver was 10-7-0 against the over/under last season

Denver had an ATS record of 8-9-0 last season

Injuries to Watch

Baltimore

09/04/15 WR Breshad Perriman Knee "?" Sunday vs. Denver
09/04/15 S Matt Elam Undisclosed IR
09/04/15 DT Timmy Jernigan Knee "?" Sunday vs. Denver
08/19/15 TE Dennis Pitta Hip PUP
08/08/15 DE Brent Urban Bicep out for season

Denver

09/04/15 DT Marvin Austin Groin IR
09/03/15 DE Derek Wolfe Suspension expected to miss first 4 games of regular season
09/03/15 DB T.J. Ward Suspension expected to miss Sunday vs. Baltimore
05/29/15 OT Ryan Clady Knee out for season

Tony's Pick: Take Baltimore

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