Free Expert NFL Picks: New York Jets at New England Patriots Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 10/14/2014
After five straight blowouts on Thursday nights this season, we finally got a close game last week. Alas, the chances of another one don't look great this week when the Jets and Patriots renew their heated rivalry as New England is the biggest Week 7 favorite on the board.
I honestly wonder if the Jets might dump Coach Rex Ryan should they lose ugly here. New York has lost six straight games, not scoring more than 19 points in the past four with the worst quarterback play in the NFL behind Geno Smith. Ryan already has said he should be fired if the Jets don't turn things around. Since the Jets have a few extra days off before their next game, it wouldn't shock me if Ryan gets dumped if the final score on Thursday is something like 42-10 in favor of the Patriots. Ryan admitted this week this has been the low point of his coaching career.
A few weeks ago, people were a bit worried about the Patriots after they were crushed on a Monday night in Kansas City to fall to 2-2. Those concerns are gone now as the Patriots have won two straight convincingly to take their usual spot atop the AFC East. New England is back to the second favorite to win the AFC at +500 on 5Dimes behind Denver.
New York Jets at New England Patriots Betting Story Lines
Hopefully all you fantasy football players didn't go trading Tom Brady for 50 cents on the dollar a couple of weeks ago. Brady wasn't very good in the first four games, no doubt about it. During the past two, double-digit wins over Cincinnati and Buffalo, usually two pretty good defenses, he looked back to his Hall of Fame self. Brady completed 65.7 percent of his throws for 292 yards, two TDs and no picks against the Bengals and then 73 percent for 361 yards, four touchdowns and no picks against the Bills. What has been the difference? Probably a few things, but certainly Rob Gronkowski returning to his Pro Bowl self has been major. He has totaled 20 targets, 13 catches, 194 yards and a score in the two-game winning streak.
The victory over the Bills was very costly as No. 1 running back Stevan Ridley and starting middle linebacker Jerod Mayo were lost to season-ending injuries. Ridley had 94 carries for 340 yards and two touchdowns this season. The Patriots now will use some combination of Brandon Bolden and Shane Vereen there, with Bolden more a power runner and Vereen a good pass catcher. Mayo really hurts as he's the quarterback of the defense and makes the play calls. He led the team by far with 53 tackles. Brady is dealing with an ankle injury and listed as questionable, but he's going to play.
New York, meanwhile, played pretty well on Sunday in losing 31-17 at home to Denver. The defense was all over Peyton Manning, sacking him twice and rushing him many more times. He threw for only 237 yards, which you will take any day as an opponent. The Jets offense, as usual, was the problem. Smith went the distance and was 23-of-43 for 190 yards with two TDs and a pick at the end of the game that was returned for a score and gave Denver the cover. The Jets had just 31 yards rushing. Apparently Smith will start again.
The Jets lost two starters for the season against the Broncos, cornerback Dee Milliner and left guard Brian Winters. Milliner hasn't lived up to the hype of being the No. 9 overall pick last year but was still probably the best guy New York had back there. Winters will be replaced by Oday Aboushi, who has never started a game.
These two franchises really don't like each other, but the Jets usually do raise their game and play the Patriots well. The teams split last year, each winning by a field goal at home. Smith has struggled on the road big time in his young career, and he wasn't good in the 13-10 loss in Foxboro last year (also on a Thursday), throwing three fourth-quarter interceptions. Brady is 6-0 in Thursday night starts in his career with a rating of 108.0.
New York Jets at New England Patriots NFL Week 7 Betting Odds and Trends
At 5Dimes, the Patriots are 10.5-point favorites (+115). There are also alternate lines of -10 (+103), -9.5 (-110) and -9 (-115). New England is -500 on the moneyline, with the Jets at +400. The total is 45 points (both -110). New York is the only winless team against the spread in the NFL at 0-5-1 (0-1-1 on road). It is 3-3 "over/under" (1-1 on road). New England is 3-3 ATS (1-1 at home) and 4-2 O/U (1-1 at home).
New York is 0-4-1 ATS in its past five after an ATS loss. It has covered one of its past five vs. teams with a winning record and just three of its past 10 vs. the AFC. New England is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 at home. The Pats are 1-4 in their past five against teams with a losing record. The under is 4-1 in New York's past five Thursday games. The over is 5-1 in New England's past six on Thursday. It is 14-3 in the Patriots' past 17 at home vs. teams with a losing road record. The over has hit in eight of the past 10 meetings. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five.
New York Jets at New England Patriots Expert NFL Picks and Betting Predictions
New England has won 32 straight games at home against AFC opponents, the longest streak in the NFL since the merger. The Pats didn't look good in one home game thus far (Oakland) but certainly did in their most recent (Cincinnati). The Jets played really well for a half in one road game (Green Bay) but were abysmal in their most recent one (San Diego).
It's not a question of who wins because the Patriots will. The last time the Patriots lost a home game against an AFC East opponent was on Nov. 13, 2008, when the Jets pulled out a 34-31 OT upset. That said, no team gets Gang Green as fired up as New England. Take the 10.5 (under 10 I would probably lean New England) and the under.
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After five straight blowouts on Thursday nights this season, we finally got a close game last week. Alas, the chances of another one don't look great this week when the Jets and Patriots renew their heated rivalry as New England is the biggest Week 7 favorite on the board.
I honestly wonder if the Jets might dump Coach Rex Ryan should they lose ugly here. New York has lost six straight games, not scoring more than 19 points in the past four with the worst quarterback play in the NFL behind Geno Smith. Ryan already has said he should be fired if the Jets don't turn things around. Since the Jets have a few extra days off before their next game, it wouldn't shock me if Ryan gets dumped if the final score on Thursday is something like 42-10 in favor of the Patriots. Ryan admitted this week this has been the low point of his coaching career.
A few weeks ago, people were a bit worried about the Patriots after they were crushed on a Monday night in Kansas City to fall to 2-2. Those concerns are gone now as the Patriots have won two straight convincingly to take their usual spot atop the AFC East. New England is back to the second favorite to win the AFC at +500 on 5Dimes behind Denver.
New York Jets at New England Patriots Betting Story Lines
Hopefully all you fantasy football players didn't go trading Tom Brady for 50 cents on the dollar a couple of weeks ago. Brady wasn't very good in the first four games, no doubt about it. During the past two, double-digit wins over Cincinnati and Buffalo, usually two pretty good defenses, he looked back to his Hall of Fame self. Brady completed 65.7 percent of his throws for 292 yards, two TDs and no picks against the Bengals and then 73 percent for 361 yards, four touchdowns and no picks against the Bills. What has been the difference? Probably a few things, but certainly Rob Gronkowski returning to his Pro Bowl self has been major. He has totaled 20 targets, 13 catches, 194 yards and a score in the two-game winning streak.
The victory over the Bills was very costly as No. 1 running back Stevan Ridley and starting middle linebacker Jerod Mayo were lost to season-ending injuries. Ridley had 94 carries for 340 yards and two touchdowns this season. The Patriots now will use some combination of Brandon Bolden and Shane Vereen there, with Bolden more a power runner and Vereen a good pass catcher. Mayo really hurts as he's the quarterback of the defense and makes the play calls. He led the team by far with 53 tackles. Brady is dealing with an ankle injury and listed as questionable, but he's going to play.
New York, meanwhile, played pretty well on Sunday in losing 31-17 at home to Denver. The defense was all over Peyton Manning, sacking him twice and rushing him many more times. He threw for only 237 yards, which you will take any day as an opponent. The Jets offense, as usual, was the problem. Smith went the distance and was 23-of-43 for 190 yards with two TDs and a pick at the end of the game that was returned for a score and gave Denver the cover. The Jets had just 31 yards rushing. Apparently Smith will start again.
The Jets lost two starters for the season against the Broncos, cornerback Dee Milliner and left guard Brian Winters. Milliner hasn't lived up to the hype of being the No. 9 overall pick last year but was still probably the best guy New York had back there. Winters will be replaced by Oday Aboushi, who has never started a game.
These two franchises really don't like each other, but the Jets usually do raise their game and play the Patriots well. The teams split last year, each winning by a field goal at home. Smith has struggled on the road big time in his young career, and he wasn't good in the 13-10 loss in Foxboro last year (also on a Thursday), throwing three fourth-quarter interceptions. Brady is 6-0 in Thursday night starts in his career with a rating of 108.0.
New York Jets at New England Patriots NFL Week 7 Betting Odds and Trends
At 5Dimes, the Patriots are 10.5-point favorites (+115). There are also alternate lines of -10 (+103), -9.5 (-110) and -9 (-115). New England is -500 on the moneyline, with the Jets at +400. The total is 45 points (both -110). New York is the only winless team against the spread in the NFL at 0-5-1 (0-1-1 on road). It is 3-3 "over/under" (1-1 on road). New England is 3-3 ATS (1-1 at home) and 4-2 O/U (1-1 at home).
New York is 0-4-1 ATS in its past five after an ATS loss. It has covered one of its past five vs. teams with a winning record and just three of its past 10 vs. the AFC. New England is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 at home. The Pats are 1-4 in their past five against teams with a losing record. The under is 4-1 in New York's past five Thursday games. The over is 5-1 in New England's past six on Thursday. It is 14-3 in the Patriots' past 17 at home vs. teams with a losing road record. The over has hit in eight of the past 10 meetings. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five.
New York Jets at New England Patriots Expert NFL Picks and Betting Predictions
New England has won 32 straight games at home against AFC opponents, the longest streak in the NFL since the merger. The Pats didn't look good in one home game thus far (Oakland) but certainly did in their most recent (Cincinnati). The Jets played really well for a half in one road game (Green Bay) but were abysmal in their most recent one (San Diego).
It's not a question of who wins because the Patriots will. The last time the Patriots lost a home game against an AFC East opponent was on Nov. 13, 2008, when the Jets pulled out a 34-31 OT upset. That said, no team gets Gang Green as fired up as New England. Take the 10.5 (under 10 I would probably lean New England) and the under.
Doc’s Sports has been successfully handicapping the NFL for years – more than four decades in the business – and wants to give new clients a chance to try our service for free. Click here for the hassle-free sign up and get $60 in free NFL picks today . Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details.
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