The New Orleans Saints (8-2) look pretty invincible at home this season, much like they were in 2011, but very ordinary on the road. Thus, it seems vital that at worst the Saints get the NFC's No. 2 seed and guarantee themselves at least one playoff game at the Superdome. With the red-hot Carolina Panthers on their tail in the NFC South, the Saints can ill afford to get caught in a trap game at Atlanta on Thursday night as the Saints visit current NFC No. 1 Seattle in Week 13 and then host Carolina the following week.

The Falcons (2-8) are playing for draft position and pride at this point. Last year's NFC top seed has lost four straight, all by at least 13 points. Atlanta hasn't had a losing season since the disastrous Bobby Petrino mini-era in 2007. Coach Mike Smith and QB Matt Ryan arrived in 2008, and Atlanta has missed the playoffs only once and was still 9-7 that year. Smith and GM Thomas Dimitroff got the dreaded vote of confidence from owner Arthur Blank after Sunday's loss in Tampa Bay, but I think they are safe. Injuries have really decimated the team this year. Losing out and getting a stud defensive player like South Carolina's Jadeveon Clowney or UCLA's Anthony Barr, or perhaps a top offensive tackle like Texas A&M's Jake Matthews near the top of the draft might not be a bad thing as the Falcons should return to contender status next year even though tight end Tony Gonzalez will be retiring after 2013 (so he says).

Saints at Falcons Betting Story Lines

Atlanta allowed a one-win Tampa Bay team 41 points in Sunday's defeat, the most the Falcons have allowed since giving up 45 to these Saints on Dec. 16, 2011. The Falcons can't run the ball, ranking 31st. The addition of Steven Jackson has been a disaster, and he might be waived after the season. The Falcons also can't stop the run, ranking 30th. Unknown Bobby Rainey had 163 yards and two rushing touchdowns on that defense Sunday. The week before Seattle had 211 rushing yards. The week before that Carolina had 131 on the ground. You get the drill. Atlanta did get back arguably its best defensive player in linebacker Sean Weatherspoon in Week 12 after he missed six games. He had nine tackles.

Smith continues to tinker with the Atlanta offensive line and may again for this game. The Falcons inserted Joe Hawley as the starting center against the Bucs, and Peter Konz moved to right guard, although Konz was eventually benched during the game. The O-Line actually didn't play badly as Atlanta rushed for 152 yards against Tampa Bay, and Ryan was sacked just twice. Antone Smith was a bright spot with two carries for 88 yards and a TD, and Coach Smith says he has earned more playing time. WR Harry Douglas also was a bright spot against Tampa Bay with 134 yards on six catches. It's his third 100-yard game since Julio Jones was lost for the season.

New Orleans failed to cover at home for the first time this year, but the Saints could care less after beating the 49ers 23-20 Sunday in a matchup we most certainly could see again come January. Drew Brees had his usual 300-yard game but just one TD pass (No. 350 career). It was Brees' 75th career 300-yard game, trailing only Peyton Manning (81). Brees needs 38 yards to pass Warren Moon for fifth on the all-time passing yardage list this week.

The defense was the story, holding the 49ers to 196 total yards. New Orleans was also the beneficiary of a very iffy roughing the passer penalty on San Francisco linebacker Ahmad Brooks with about three minutes left that extended a drive. New Orleans would kick the tying field goal shortly after and then win it on a Garrett Hartley 31-yarder at the gun. That Saints defense took a big hit as starting cornerback Jabari Greer was lost to a knee injury. He has started since 2009 and had a pick and 12 passes defensed this season. Second-year player Corey White likely will start in his place, and he had a pick against San Francisco but fumbled the ball through the back of the end zone for a touchback.

Saints at Falcons NFL Week 12 Betting Odds and Trends

At WagerWeb, New Orleans opened as a nine-point favorite with a total of 53. The Saints are 6-4 ATS (1-3 on road) and 5-5 “over/under” (2-2 on road). Atlanta is 2-8 ATS (2-3 at home) and 6-4 O/U (4-1 at home). The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their past four after an ATS loss. They are 6-2 ATS in their past eight against teams with a losing record. New Orleans has covered one of its past six Thursday games. The Falcons have covered five of their past six on Thursday. They are 1-5 ATS in their past six after a loss and 0-4 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning record. The under is 5-1 in the Saints' past six vs. the NFC. The under is 11-2 in Atlanta's past 13 November games. The under is 4-0 in the past four meetings in Atlanta. The Saints have covered five of the past six meetings overall.

Free NFL Picks: Saints at Falcons Betting Predictions

New Orleans has won 12 of the past 15 meetings, including 23-17 at home in Week 1. Ryan was picked off on fourth-and-three from the New Orleans three-yard line with seconds remaining to seal it. Both Ryan and Brees had more than 300 yards passing, two TDs and a pick. The Saints held the ball almost 11 minutes more than Atlanta.

The Saints have lost their past two road games, but those were outdoors, and this will in the dome, where Brees thrives. Still, this does seem like a bit of a trap game. New Orleans should win, but the Falcons should stay within a touchdown. Take the under.

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