Xavier Musketeers vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, 3/21/2025 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Xavier Musketeers vs Illinois Fighting Illini

Date: Friday, March 21, 2025

Location: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI

TV: CBS

Odds/Point Spread: Illinois (-4)

Fiserv Forum is where the Illinois Fighting Illini (21-12) will play the Xavier Musketeers (21-11) on Friday in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. Illinois is 4-point favorites. The over/under is 159.

The Xavier Musketeers played Marquette and took a loss by a final of 89-87 in their last contest. Xavier ended the contest having earned a 52.6% FG percentage (30 out of 57) and converted 11 out of their 23 three-point shots. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Musketeers converted 16 of 19 shots for a rate of 84.2%. Concerning hauling in boards, they earned 31 with 3 of them being of the offensive variety. They also recorded 16 assists while forcing 3 turnovers, but wasn't able to put a steal in the stat sheet. When discussing the defense, Xavier allowed their opponent to shoot 48.5% from the field on 32 of 66 shooting. Marquette earned 14 dimes and had 8 steals in the matchup. On top of that, Marquette snagged 25 boards (4 offensive, 21 defensive), but didn't record a block for the team. Marquette finished 84.6% from the free throw line by burying 11 of 13 shots. They knocked down 14 of 33 attempts from beyond the arc. With respect to personal fouls, the Musketeers ended up finishing with 17 while Marquette had 18 personal fouls.

Ryan Conwell is a guy who was a contributor in this game. He was able to score 38 points on 13 out of 18 shooting. He played for 35 mins and also grabbed 3 boards. He shot 72.2% from the field and totaled 3 assists.

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Xavier will play this game with a record of 21-11 this year. They currently have an average of 78.0 points per contest (78th in college hoops) while connecting on 46.6% from the field. The Musketeers are hitting 38.8% on three-point attempts (264 of 680) and 79.4% from the charity stripe. As a unit, Xavier is pulling in 33.7 rebounds per contest and has accounted for 542 dimes on the year, which ranks 32nd in the country in terms of passing the ball. They turn it over 11.2 times per game and as a team they are committing 15.6 fouls on a nightly basis.

Defensively, the Musketeers are forcing their opponents into 12.3 turnovers per contest while drawing 18.0 fouls. They surrender 33.9% on 3-point shots and they are 146th in the country in opponents PPG (70.9). The Musketeers defensively are giving up a FG percentage of 44.3% (828 of 1,868) and they relinquish 32.3 boards per game as a group. They are currently ranked 277th in the nation in giving up assists to their opponents with 464 surrendered so far this year.

For their last game, the Illinois Fighting Illini took a defeat with a final score of 88-65 against Maryland. The Fighting Illini were able to snag 29 defensive boards and 13 offensive rebounds for a total of 42 for the contest. They also turned it over 17 times, while getting 3 steals for the matchup. Maryland earned 17 fouls for this contest which got the Fighting Illini to the charity stripe for a total of 18 attempts. They were able to bury 13 of the free throw tries for a clip of 72.2%. In terms of shots from beyond the perimeter, Illinois converted 6 of their 27 attempts (22.2%). When the final whistle blew, the Fighting Illini ended up shooting 23 for 63 from the field which had them at 36.5%. The Fighting Illini permitted Maryland to convert 30 out of 71 tries from the field which left them with a shooting percentage of 42.3% for this game. They shot 47.8% from behind the 3-point line by connecting on 11 out of 23 and ended up shooting 17 out of 24 at the free throw line (70.8%). When it comes to rebounding, Illinois permitted Maryland to get 30 in all (9 on the offensive side).

Kasparas Jakucionis ended up being a major contributor for the Fighting Illini in the game. He made 4 of 10 in this game for a field goal percentage of 40.0%, and added 10 rebounds. He accumulated 15 points in his 29 minutes on the hardwood and added 4 assists for this game.

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Illinois has a record of 21-12 on the year. When it comes to offense, the Fighting Illini are connecting on 45.0% from the floor, which ranks 161st in D-1. Illinois has accumulated 2,766 points on the season (83.8 per game) and they collect 42.5 boards per game. Their rate of dishing out assists is at 15.0 times per contest (90th in the country) and they turn it over 11.5 times per contest. The Fighting Illini are committing 16.2 fouls per game and they connect on 75.9% from the charity stripe.

The Fighting Illini on the defensive end are ranked 260th in D-1 in PPG surrendered with 74.6. They are able to force 9.2 TO's every game and have allowed teams to shoot 42.2% from the field (89th in college hoops). The Illinois defense surrenders 33.3% on shots from beyond the arc (219 of 658) and their opposition makes 71.2% of their free throw attempts. They have conceded 12.7 assists and 33.7 total rebounds per game, which ranks 141st and 142nd in Division 1.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Illinois (-4)

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