Vanderbilt Commodores vs St. Mary's Gaels Prediction, 3/21/2025 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Vanderbilt Commodores vs St. Mary's Gaels

Date: Friday, March 21, 2025

Location: Rocket Arena in Cleveland, OH

TV: truTV

Odds/Point Spread: St. Mary's (-3)

Rocket Arena is the location where the St. Mary's Gaels (28-5) will play the Vanderbilt Commodores (20-12) on Friday in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. St. Mary's opens this contest as 3-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The total is 136.

The Vanderbilt Commodores took the court against Texas and walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 79-72 in their last contest. Vanderbilt ended the game with a 41.4% FG percentage (24 of 58) and made 3 out of their 19 3-point attempts. From the free throw line, the Commodores made 21 of their 30 attempts for a rate of 70.0%. In terms of hauling in rebounds, they collected 31 with 8 of them being offensive. They also doled out 10 assists for the matchup while forcing 8 turnovers and getting 4 steals. In relation to defense, Vanderbilt let their opponent shoot 46.3% from the field on 25 out of 54 shooting. Texas doled out 7 assists and had 5 steals for the contest. Additionally, Texas snagged 31 rebounds (6 offensive, 25 defensive), but wasn't able to put a block in the stat sheet. Texas shot 73.5% from the charity stripe by converting 25 of 34 shots. They also converted 4 of 16 tries from distance. With respect to personal fouls, the Commodores left the arena with 25 while Texas totaled 21 personal fouls.

Jason Edwards is someone who was a major factor for the contest. He walked away from this one shooting 46.2% from the field but finished the game without a dime. He was on the court for 28 mins and also totaled 3 boards. He accumulated 20 points on 6 of 13 shooting.

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Vanderbilt heads into this one with a record of 20-12 this year. They turn the ball over 10.4 times per contest and as a group are committing 18.0 personal fouls every game. As a team, Vanderbilt is collecting 34.9 rebounds per contest and has 447 assists this year, which is 172nd in the nation in terms of passing the rock. The Commodores are shooting 32.5% on three-point attempts (259 of 796) and 74.7% from the free throw line. They are averaging 79.6 pts per game (48th in college hoops) while hitting 45.1% from the floor.

When they are on the defensive end, the Commodores are forcing 14.1 turnovers per game while drawing 17.6 personal fouls. They are currently ranked 74th in Division 1 in giving up assists to the opposition with 389 relinquished for the season. The Commodores are giving up a FG percentage of 46.0% (822 of 1,786) and they concede 34.5 boards per game as a unit. They are conceding 36.9% from beyond the arc and they are 265th in college hoops in opponents PPG (74.8).

For their last game, the St. Mary's Gaels took a defeat with a final score of 58-51 when they played Gonzaga. The Gaels snagged 29 defensive rebounds and 8 offensive boards for a total of 37 for the matchup. They turned it over 15 times, while getting 3 steals for the contest. Gonzaga had 16 fouls in this game which got the Gaels to the free throw line for 15 tries. They were able to knock down 11 of the free throw tries for a rate of 73.3%. In the matter of 3-pointers, St. Mary's buried 0 of 16 tries (0.0%). When all was said and done, the Gaels finished the game shooting 20 out of 52 from the field which gave them a rate of 38.5%. The Gaels allowed Gonzaga to bury 26 of 63 tries from the floor which gave them a percentage of 41.3% in the game. They went 6.7% from three-point range by shooting 1 of 15 and ended up going 5 out of 7 from the free throw line (71.4%). When talking about rebounding, St. Mary's allowed Gonzaga to collect 23 in all (6 on the offensive glass).

Mitchell Saxen ended up having an impact for the Gaels for the matchup. He had 20 points in his 39 minutes on the court, but wasn't able to get an assist. He knocked down 8 of 13 for the contest for a field goal percentage of 61.5%, and had 7 rebounds.

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St. Mary's has a win-loss record of 28-5 so far this year. The Gaels commit 15.0 fouls per contest and they connect on 69.4% from the free throw line. Their rate of earning assists is at 15.5 times per game (62nd in college) and they turn the ball over 9.8 times per game. St. Mary's has accumulated 2,426 points so far this year (73.5 per game) and they pull down 39.8 rebounds per contest. On the offensive side of the court, the Gaels are connecting on 45.5% from the field, which ranks 136th in the country.

The St. Mary's defense allows 30.8% on shots from behind the 3-point line (176 of 571) and their opponents are connecting on 74.2% of their shots from the charity stripe. They surrender 12.3 assists and 29.1 total rebounds per game, which ranks them 101st and 4th in those defensive categories. The Gaels defensively are ranked 5th in the country in PPG allowed with 60.7. They are forcing 10.8 turnovers on a nightly basis and have let teams shoot 40.8% from the floor (35th in college hoops).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take St. Mary's (-3)

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