North Carolina Tar Heels vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, 3/18/2025 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: North Carolina Tar Heels vs San Diego State Aztecs

Date: Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Location: UD Arena in Dayton, OH

TV: truTV

Odds/Point Spread: North Carolina (-4)

UD Arena is where the San Diego State Aztecs (21-9) will meet the North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13) on Tuesday in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. North Carolina opens this matchup as 4-point favorites from oddsmakers. The betting total comes in at 142.5.

The North Carolina Tar Heels took the court against Duke and ended up losing by a score of 74-71 in their last game. In the matter of personal fouls, the Tar Heels ended up with 18 and Duke finished the game with 20 personal fouls. They converted 5 of 22 tries from beyond the arc. Duke finished the game at 68.2% from the free throw line by knocking down 15 of their 22 tries. Additionally, Duke collected 30 rebounds (9 offensive, 21 defensive), but didn't have a block. Duke totaled 13 assists and had 8 steals for this contest. When discussing the defense, North Carolina allowed the other team to shoot 49.1% from the field on 27 out of 55 shooting. They also doled out 13 assists for the contest while forcing the opposition into 13 turnovers and getting 8 steals. When talking about hauling in rebounds, they collected a total of 30 with 9 of them being on the offensive end. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Tar Heels knocked down 16 of 24 shots for a percentage of 66.7%. North Carolina ended the contest with a 47.3% field goal percentage (26 of 55) and converted 3 out of their 17 three-point attempts.

Ven-Allen Lubin is a guy who was a major factor for this game. He finished the game shooting 72.7% from the floor and recorded 2 dimes. He saw the court for 34 mins played and also totaled 10 boards. He finished with 20 points on 8 out of 11 shooting.

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North Carolina heads into this contest with a win-loss mark of 22-13 for the year. They are turning it over 10.8 times per game and as a team they commit 16.8 fouls every game. As a team, North Carolina is grabbing 36.7 rebounds per game and is sitting with 513 dimes on the season, which ranks 58th in D-1 in terms of passing the ball. The Tar Heels are shooting 35.3% on shots from distance (276 of 781) and 73.7% from the charity stripe. They average 80.8 points per game (32nd in the country) while hitting 47.6% from the field.

When they are on defense, the Tar Heels are able to force 10.8 turnovers per game and they draw 17.3 fouls. They are conceding 33.5% on 3-point shots and they are ranked 272nd in Division 1 in PPG allowed (75.0). The Tar Heels are giving up a shooting percentage of 43.2% (933 of 2,159) and they concede 33.7 rebounds per game as a team. They are ranked 231st in the nation in allowing assists to their opponents with 443 relinquished on the year.

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the San Diego State Aztecs took a loss by a final score of 62-52 against Boise State. In the matter of rebounds, San Diego State permitted Boise State to get 38 in all (13 offensive). They finished the game shooting 27.5% from distance by shooting 11 of 40 and walked away from this one shooting 13 of 17 from the free throw line (76.5%). The Aztecs permitted Boise State to knock down 19 out of their 56 tries from the field which gave them a rate of 33.9% in the game. When the final whistle blew, the Aztecs ended up going 18 out of 47 from the floor which had them shooting 38.3%. Concerning three-point attempts, San Diego State made 7 of their 21 tries (33.3%). They were able to knock down 9 of the free throws for a percentage of 60.0%. Boise State committed 15 fouls for the matchup which got the Aztecs to the free throw line for a total of 15 shots. They also coughed up the ball 12 times, while earning 4 steals for the contest. The Aztecs were able to collect 21 defensive rebounds and 3 offensive rebounds totaling 24 in this game.

Nick Boyd ended up being a factor for the Aztecs for the matchup. He knocked down 6 out of 12 for this contest for a field goal rate of 50.0%, and earned 1 rebound. He tallied 20 points in his 30 minutes on the court and earned 3 dimes in this contest.

San Diego State has a win-loss mark of 21-9 this season. The Aztecs are committing 18.5 fouls per contest and they connect on 66.6% from the charity stripe. Their rate of dishing out assists is at 13.1 times per contest (218th in the country) and they are giving up possession 11.0 times per game. San Diego State has 2,126 points on the season (70.9 per game) and they pull in 35.4 boards per game. As an offensive unit, the Aztecs are connecting on 44.4% from the floor, which ranks 198th in college hoops.

The San Diego State defense surrenders 30.2% on three-point shots (235 of 777) and their opponents are converting on 70.0% of their shots from the charity stripe. They relinquish 10.5 dimes and 35.3 boards per game, which has them ranked 25th and 241st in college hoops. The Aztecs are ranked 14th in college hoops in points per game surrendered with 63.6. They are forcing their opponents into 13.4 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 37.8% from the floor (1st in D-1).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take San Diego State (+4)

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