Baylor Bears vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, 3/21/2025 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Baylor Bears vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

Date: Friday, March 21, 2025

Location: Lenovo Center in Raleigh, NC

TV: CBS

Odds/Point Spread: Baylor (+2)

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12) are welcoming the Baylor Bears (19-14) at Lenovo Center on Friday in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. Mississippi State opens this game as 2-point favorites from oddsmakers. The over/under is 144.

The Baylor Bears took the court against Texas Tech and ended up losing by a score of 76-74 in their last game. In reference to personal fouls, the Bears ended up with 17 and Texas Tech recorded 15 personal fouls. They buried 15 of 34 shots from three-point range. Texas Tech went 68.8% at the free throw line by converting 11 of 16 attempts. Furthermore, Texas Tech grabbed 37 rebounds (16 offensive, 21 defensive), but wasn't able to record a block. Texas Tech doled out 16 assists and had 1 steal for this game. When it comes to defense, Baylor allowed the other team to go 39.1% from the floor on 25 out of 64 shooting. They also distributed 8 assists for the contest in addition to forcing the other team into 7 turnovers and earning 7 steals. In the matter of grabbing rebounds, they earned 35 with 11 of them being on the offensive end. At the free throw line, the Bears buried 16 of 19 attempts for a percentage of 84.2%. Baylor finished the contest having earned a 45.0% FG percentage (27 out of 60) and converted 4 of their 16 shots from downtown.

Norchad Omier is one guy who was a major factor in the game. He ended up shooting 66.7% from the floor and totaled 1 assist. He was on the court for 32 mins and grabbed 15 boards. He totaled 29 points on 12 of 18 shooting.

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Baylor heads into this game with a record of 19-14 so far this season. They turn it over 11.0 times per game and as a team they are committing 16.3 fouls on a nightly basis. As a team, Baylor is pulling in 36.0 boards per contest and has 482 assists so far this season, which is 102nd in the country in terms of passing the rock. The Bears are connecting on 35.1% on shots from distance (280 of 797) and 74.5% from the charity stripe. They currently have an average of 76.5 points per game (107th in the country) while connecting on 44.8% from the field.

Defensively, the Bears are able to force 12.7 turnovers every game and they draw 16.7 fouls. They surrender 35.0% on 3-point attempts and they are ranked 92nd in the nation in opponents points per game (69.2). The Bears defense is allowing a shooting percentage of 43.3% (798 of 1,841) and they relinquish 32.7 boards per game as a group. They are currently ranked 302nd in D-1 in giving up assists with 476 surrendered for the campaign.

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the Mississippi State Bulldogs took a defeat with a final score of 85-73 when they played Missouri. In regard to how they rebounded, Mississippi State allowed Missouri to collect 38 in total (7 offensive). They went 33.3% from downtown by hitting 8 of 24 and finished the game at 23 of 28 from the free throw line (82.1%). The Bulldogs permitted Missouri to convert 27 of 55 tries from the floor which had them shooting 49.1% for the game. When the game finished, the Bulldogs shot 24 out of 66 from the field which gave them a rate of 36.4%. In reference to three-point attempts, Mississippi State made 6 out of their 30 tries (20.0%). They were able to bury 19 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 70.4%. Missouri earned 19 personal fouls in this matchup which took the Bulldogs to the charity stripe for 27 attempts. They also gave up possession of the ball 8 times, while recording 11 steals in the matchup. The Bulldogs recorded 16 defensive boards and 9 offensive rebounds for a total of 25 in the game.

Josh Hubbard ended up being a factor for the Bulldogs in this contest. He had 24 points in his 38 minutes on the hardwood, but didn't record an assist. He made 8 of 22 for the matchup giving him a field goal percentage of 36.4%, and had 1 rebound.

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Mississippi State has a win-loss record of 21-12 so far this year. As an offensive unit, the Bulldogs are shooting 45.1% from the field, which ranks them 154th in the nation. Mississippi State has accumulated 2,632 pts for the campaign (79.8 per contest) and they average 38.2 boards per contest. They are getting an assist 15.3 times per game (69th in D-1) and they turn the ball over 10.6 times per game. The Bulldogs commit 17.4 fouls every game and they go 70.0% from the charity stripe.

The Bulldogs are ranked 248th in college hoops in points given up per game with 74.2. They are forcing 13.4 turnovers on a nightly basis and have let teams shoot 43.9% from the floor (191st in college). The Mississippi State defense surrenders 36.1% on 3-point attempts (304 of 842) and their opponents are connecting on 69.5% of their free throw shots. They have conceded 13.5 assists and 35.6 rebounds every game, which is ranked 208th and 257th in those categories.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Baylor (+2)

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