The North Carolina Tar Heels are peaking at just the right time. The team is in the middle of a six-game conference winning streak and has moved into fourth place in the standings with a solid 7-4 ACC record after starting conference play with three straight losses. Forward James Michael McAdoo has played fantastic basketball for North Carolina during the team’s winning streak and will need to continue his excellent production over the next two games when the Tar Heels face Florida State on Monday night and Duke on Thursday night.

The Florida State Seminoles are only 6-7 in conference play but have dropped five of their last seven ACC matchups. The squad still has games against North Carolina, Pittsburgh and No. 1 Syracuse left on its schedule, and at this point, an invitation to the NCAA Tournament is unlikely to come. The Seminoles need to end the season strong if they plan on making a last-minute postseason push, which should begin tonight against North Carolina. Let’s take a closer look at the matchup with picks and analysis.

North Carolina at Florida State Betting Story Lines

North Carolina added another win to its slowly-increasing winning streak on Saturday with a huge four-point victory over No. 25 Pittsburgh. McAdoo led the team with 24 points and 12 rebounds on 11-of-18 shooting from the field. Marcus Paige added 18 points, four rebounds, four assists, and two steals as North Carolina beat its first ranked opponent of the season. Prior to the victory, the Tar Heels had lost to No.1 Syracuse and No. 17 Virginia by double-digits.

North Carolina’s dominance over its last six games has also spread into the ATS world as well. The team continues to cover games, and outside of its last victory over Pittsburgh, North Carolina managed to cover its previous five matchups by a comfortable margin. The Tar Heels improved play has come from its defense, solid rebounding and commitment to spreading the ball around on offense. The team is ranked 27th in assists with 15.7 per game and eighth in the nation in rebounding with 41 per contest.

Florida State started out ACC play with a 4-2 record but has since lost five of its last seven games and fallen to the middle of the conference standings. The Seminoles have an excellent sophomore guard in Aaron Thomas, who has averaged 13.5 points and 4.1 rebounds this season, but overall the squad has struggled to receive consistent production from its bench.

Florida State has struggled on the ATS side of things as well and currently has a 2-7 ATS mark over its last nine matchups. The team, however, did cover its last game against Wake Forest over the weekend and received a career-high, 25 points from guard Ian Miller. Thomas also grabbed a career-high of his own with 14 rebounds during the game. Florida State trailed by double-digits early in the matchup but managed to fight back and cut the lead to six entering the second half and eventually ended the game with a seven-point victory.

North Carolina at Florida State NCAA Betting Odds and Key Trends

Florida State opened as a one-point favorite over the underdog Tar Heels at BetOnline. Florida State is 9-4 ATS over its last 13 Monday games and in its last 13 games following a SU win. The team, however, is only 2-7 ATS in its last nine overall games and in its last nine against the ACC. Florida State is also 0-5 ATS in its last five games against teams with a winning record above .600.

North Carolina is 10-4 ATS over its last 14 Monday games and 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a SU win. The squad is 6-0 ATS in its last six overall games and in its last six against the ACC. Head-to-head, the home team has covered five of the last seven matchups, while the “over” is 6-2 in the last eight overall games.

Free College Basketball Picks: North Carolina Tar Heels at Florida State Seminoles Predictions

Florida State looked decent in its last outing, but one victory will probably not fix all of the team’s problems. North Carolina, on the other hand, seems to have fixed its early struggles and continues to ride a hot streak on the excellent play of McAdoo. The squad rebounds the ball well and shoots an excellent percentage from the field—couple that with the confidence of a team riding a six-game winning streak, and North Carolina should have enough in the tank to beat a mediocre Florida State team. Take the Tar Heels plus the point.

Read more articles by George Monroy