The San Diego State Aztecs started out the year by scheduling three Top-25 teams in their first six matchups, and, as a result, they have crept into the rankings themselves. San Diego State has already beaten the No. 20 Creighton Bluejays and the No. 25 Marquette Golden Eagles. The team’s only loss came against the then No. 6-ranked Arizona Wildcats in a close, back-and-forth matchup that stayed tight until the very end.

The San Diego Toreros have not made the postseason tournament in nearly five years and started out the season looking to erase the memory of last year’s disappointing 16-18 record. The team has a solid 7-2 record through nine games but will face its first big test of the season on Thursday night against cross-town rival, San Diego State. Let’s take a closer look at the matchup and figure out which side of the spread has the most value to bet on.

SDSU at San Diego Betting Story Lines

San Diego State is coming off a huge eight-point victory over Marquette. The team shot only 39 percent from the field but hit 50 percent of its three-point attempts and 73 percent of its free-throw shots as well. The key to the game was San Diego State’s smothering perimeter defense, which held Marquette to only one three-pointer on the night, and solid overall defense that kept the Golden Eagles to only 42 percent shooting from the field.

San Diego State is being led by its veteran guard, Xavier Thames, who had 29 points against Marquette on Sunday. He is averaging 17 points, 2.7 rebounds and 1.3 assists in 27 minutes worth of action per night. The team is also receiving excellent production from JJ O’Brien, who is averaging 12 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.7 assists for the No. 24 Aztecs.

San Diego’s last outing was a road loss to the New Mexico Lobos on Saturday. The team shot only 40 percent from the field and was content on taking contested jump shots for most of the night. San Diego was outrebounded 26-40 and did not have any blocked shots in the game. The Toreros spent most of the evening getting pushed around by the more aggressive Lobos and probably should have lost by much more than they did.

San Diego is being led by guard Johnny Dee, who is averaging 17.6 points and 2.4 rebounds per game. Overall, the team has struggled to grab rebounds and is shooting poorly from beyond the arc. The Toreros are making only 30 percent of their three-point attempts and are ranked 146th in the nation in rebounding.

SDSU at San Diego NCAA Betting Odds and Key Trends

San Diego State opened as a -7.5-point road favorite over the underdog Toreros, with the total off the board, according to BetOnline. The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS over their last five nonconference games and have the same record in their last five overall matchups. They also have a 7-2 ATS record against the West Coast Conference over the last nine games. However, San Diego State has covered only two of its last seven Thursday games.

The Toreros are 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records and 6-2 ATS over their last eight overall matchups. San Diego has a poor nonconference record over the last few seasons and is only 13-27 over its last 40 matchups. Head-to-head, San Diego State is 5-1 ATS over the last six meetings between the two teams, while the home squad is 4-1 ATS over the last five games.

Free College Basketball Picks: SDSU at San Diego Picks

San Diego State has covered four of its five posted lines this season. The team has covered back-to-back spreads against two Top 25 teams and will be playing with a world of confidence. San Diego State may be on the road, but the team is still only a freeway’s drive from its home campus. Expect San Diego State to continue to play well and not let its newfound Top 25 ranking go to waste. The San Diego Toreros are not a big team and rely heavily on their perimeter shooting to score points. The Aztecs, on the other, hand guard the three-point line very well, and they should be able to shut down the Toreros perimeter game. Expect San Diego State to win this matchup by double-digits.

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Read more articles by George Monroy