Football is what is driving all this conference realignment in college sports, no question about it. It’s what pays the bills. Because the Big Ten pays out so much more than the ACC due to its football prowess and Big Ten Network, that’s why Maryland is leaving the ACC for that conference for 2014 football season.

Any Terps alum will tell you that Maryland isn’t a football school but a basketball one. And the reason most alums and fans hate the move to the Big Ten is because it will deprive them a chance to see hated Duke (and to a lesser extent North Carolina) visit College Park each season. The irony is that while the Terps consider the Blue Devils their rivals (the two played four times in the 2000-01 season, including the Final Four), the Dukies just laugh and treat Maryland like a kid brother. In fact, when the Terrapins visit Durham, the Cameron Crazies are known to chant: “Not our rivals! Not our rivals!” Hilarious.

I bring this up because Saturday’s game at Maryland could be the final time the fans there get to berate Duke in person. With the arrival of Pitt and Syracuse in the ACC next season, the Blue Devils and Terps will only play once. Where is still not clear. Then, of course, the rivalry ends barring some sort of nonconference agreement. Considering Duke’s feelings about the Terps, I can’t see the Blue Devils returning to College Park anytime soon. There’s really no benefit for Duke to do that.

Duke at Maryland Betting Story Lines

Maryland (17-7, 5-6) simply has to have this game to boost its NCAA Tournament at-large resume. The Blue Devils are the only remaining ranked team on the Terps’ regular-season schedule. Maryland enters this one off a tough 80-69 home loss to Virginia, its third defeat in the past five games. The Terrapins almost assuredly will have to finish above .500 in the ACC at a minimum for a bid. They have an RPI of 70 right now, which won’t cut it. Only one of Maryland’s wins has come against an RPI Top 50 team (NC State), while 11 of them are against sub-150 teams. The good news is that Maryland doesn’t have any bad losses.

Duke (22-2, 9-2) obviously has no worries and would be a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance were Selection Sunday this weekend. The Blue Devils kept their ACC regular-season title hopes alive with Wednesday’s 73-68 home win over their true rival, North Carolina. Duke trailed by four at the half thanks to 11 turnovers against a so-so UNC team. The Heels were up seven with just under 18 minutes left, but freshman Rasheed Sulaimon spurred a 21-9 Blue Devils run. He either scored or assisted on 13 of those 21 points.

The Blue Devils have won six straight overall (3-3 ATS) and also three straight ACC road games. The top-ranked team in the nation has lost five straight weeks, and Duke is No. 1 in the USA Today Poll but No. 2 in the AP behind Indiana. Both of Duke’s losses came when it was No. 1, at NC State and at Miami.

Duke-Maryland has been anything but a rivalry of late. The Blue Devils have won the past six meetings by an average of more than 15 points. That includes an 84-64 blowout in Durham on Jan. 26. That was the game after Duke was crushed at Miami. Sulaimon led Duke with 25 points against Maryland, by far his career high. He was 9-of-13 from the field, while Mason Plumlee was 9-for-12 for 19 points. Duke had just four turnovers, hit 11 three-pointers and shot 52 percent overall. The Terps haven’t beaten a No. 1 team since 2008.

For Maryland to pull the upset, it will need a monster game from talented but raw seven-foot center Alex Len. He had eight points and 10 boards in the first meeting but wasn’t a big factor. When Len struggles, Maryland loses. He had nine points in that loss to Virginia, four in the loss before that against Florida State. Overall, the sophomore from the Ukraine is averaging 12.5 points and 8.0 rebounds and will be an NBA Top-10 pick should he come out because you can’t teach size.

Duke at Maryland College Basketball Betting Odds and Key Trends

At BetOnline, Duke has been opened as a 5.5-point favorite (was 12 in first meeting) with a total TBA as of our deadline, which I project around 142 (139 in first meeting). The Blue Devils are 13-11 ATS (1-4 on road) and 12-11 “over/under” (3-2 on road). The Terrapins are 7-9-1 ATS (3-6 home) and 7-8 O/U (3-4 home).

Duke is 5-1 ATS in its past six after an ATS loss. It is 2-5 ATS in its past seven following a win. Maryland has covered eight of its past 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. However, the Terrapins have covered just once in the past nine against teams with a winning record. The under is 9-3 in Duke’s past 12 vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 4-1 in Maryland’s past five overall. Duke is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 9-3 in the past 12.

Duke at Maryland Picks and Betting Predictions

I believe this is a major letdown game for Duke. Maryland, frankly, should have a better record than it does if you simply look at the stats. It ranks second in the ACC in shooting (.472) and leads the conference in field-goal defense (.367, No. 7 nationally). Maryland is also No. 2 nationally in rebounding (42.2). It had an 11-rebound advantage in the first meeting with Duke, but it didn’t matter with Duke shooting so well and not turning the ball over. Those things tend to not go as well on the road. In addition, the Terps are way deeper than Duke. It should be quite an atmosphere at the Comcast Center, and the turtles badly need this one. Take Maryland and the over.

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Read more articles by Alan Matthews