Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction, 4/20/2025 Preview and Pick

Game: Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Date: Sunday, April 20, 2025

Location: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, OH

TV: TNT

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+12.0)

The Miami Heat (37-45) are hitting the road to Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse on Sunday where they will try to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18) in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference First Round. Cleveland opens as 12-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under is set at 214.

The Heat advanced to this series with a 123-114 win over Atlanta in the Play-in game. Tyler Herro lead the Heat with 30 points, 8 boards, and 7 dimes. Bam Adebayo chipped in 17 pts, 11 rebounds, and 5 assists. As a team, Miami shot 50% (48-96) while they held Atlanta to 43% (44-102). The Heat finished with 54 rebounds and 33 assists while Atlanta ended up with 44 boards and 30 dimes. 

Miami heads into this one with a win-loss record of 37-45 on the season. They cough up possession 13.6 times per contest and as a unit they commit 15.5 personal fouls on a nightly basis. As a team, Miami is snagging 43.4 boards per game and has tallied 2,166 assists this year, which has them ranked 14th in the NBA in terms of passing the ball. The Heat are connecting on 36.7% on three-point attempts (1,124 of 3,060) and 79.1% from the charity stripe. They are averaging 110.6 points per outing (24th in the NBA) while shooting 46.5% from the field.

On defense, the Heat are forcing 13.8 turnovers per contest while drawing 17.0 personal fouls. They are giving up 36.0% on 3-point attempts and they are 7th in the league in points per game allowed (110.0). The Heat defensively are giving up a FG percentage of 46.6% (3,383 of 7,262) and they concede 44.7 rebounds per game as a team. They are 15th in the league in giving up assists with 2,176 surrendered this year.

When they last stepped on the court, the Cavaliers went home defeated by a final of 126-118 when they played the Pacers. When discussing attacking the glass, Cleveland permitted Indiana to collect 61 in total (14 offensive). They went 23.8% from 3-point land by connecting on 10 of 42 and walked away from this one shooting 20 of 22 from the free throw line (90.9%). The Cavaliers allowed the Pacers to knock down 48 out of their 119 attempts from the floor which left them with a rate of 40.3% in this matchup. At the conclusion of this game, the Cavaliers finished shooting 44 out of 115 from the field which gave them a percentage of 38.3%. In the matter of shooting from 3-point land, Cleveland converted 18 of 60 attempts (30.0%). They were able to make 12 of those for a percentage of 54.5%. The Pacers were called for 20 personal fouls in this matchup which got the Cavaliers to the charity stripe for 22 attempts. They also turned it over 22 times, while getting 6 steals in this contest. The Cavaliers corralled 47 defensive boards and 18 offensive rebounds for a total of 65 for this game.

Jaylon Tyson ended up being a major contributor for the Cavaliers in this contest. Tyson earned 31 points in his 46 mins of playing time and accounted for 4 dimes for this game. He buried 12 of 25 for the contest for a field goal percentage of 48.0%, and accounted for 7 rebounds.

Cleveland has a win-loss record of 64-18 this year. In terms of offensive execution, the Cavaliers are hitting on 49.1% from the floor, which is ranked 2nd in the league. Cleveland has scored 9,999 points so far this year (121.9 per contest) and they collect 45.4 boards per game. Their rate of earning assists is at 28.1 times per game (9th in the league) and they are giving up possession 13.2 times per contest. The Cavaliers commit 18.1 fouls per contest and they go 77.6% from the charity stripe.

The Cleveland defense concedes 35.9% from downtown (1,104 of 3,075) and their opposition knocks down 77.9% of their foul shots. They have conceded 25.6 dimes and 43.5 rebounds per contest, which is ranked 8th and 11th in the league. The Cavaliers on defense are ranked 12th in the NBA in PPG allowed with 112.4. They have forced 14.5 TO's per game and have let teams shoot 45.4% from the floor (3rd in the NBA).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Miami (+12.0)

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