Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction, 4/18/2025 Preview and Pick

Game: Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks

Date: Friday, April 18, 2025

Location: State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA

TV: TNT

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+1.0)

State Farm Arena is where the Atlanta Hawks (40-42) will take on the Miami Heat (37-45) on Friday in an Eastern Conference Play-In game. Miami opens this contest as 1-point dogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under comes in at 219.

Right from the start, Tyler Herro and the Miami Heat took it to the Chicago Bulls. Herro led all scorers with 38 points on the night as he picked and chose his spots while dismantling the Bulls. He had 23 points by halftime as they walked into the locker room with a 71-47 lead. Helping Herro out, Andrew Wiggins racked up 20 points with nine rebounds to go with it while Bam Adebayo contributed 15 points and 12 rebounds.

Josh Giddey led the Bulls in scoring with 25 points. There was a moment in the 4th quarter where it looked like the Bulls might make a run, but the Heat quickly shut it down with the help of the bulls 17 turnovers. It also didn't help that the Bulls shot 27% from three going 10-37.

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Miami will enter this contest with a win-loss record of 37-45 this season. They are giving up possession 13.6 times per contest and as a squad are committing 15.5 fouls on a nightly basis. As a team, Miami is snagging 43.4 rebounds per game and has earned 2,166 assists so far this season, which has them ranked 14th in basketball in terms of passing. The Heat are shooting 36.7% on shots from 3-point land (1,124 of 3,060) and 79.1% from the free throw line. They currently have an average of 110.6 points per game (24th in the league) while hitting 46.5% from the field.

When they are on defense, the Heat have forced 13.8 turnovers per game while drawing 17.0 personal fouls. They are relinquishing 36.0% on shots from downtown and they are 7th in the NBA in PPG from their opponents (110.0). The Heat are giving up a field goal percentage of 46.6% (3,383 of 7,262) and they surrender 44.7 rebounds per game as a group. They rank 15th in the league in giving up assists to the opposition with 2,176 relinquished for the season.

In their last game, the Atlanta Hawks were downed by the Orlando Magic by a score of 120-95. Cole Anthony was responsible for leading the Magic to a win with 26 points and six assists. Paolo Banchero added 17 points, seven assists and nine rebounds. Per usual, Trae Young led the Hawks in scoring with a game high 28 points, six assists and 2 rebounds. That said, his and the teams' performance from behind the arc hurt them badly as they went 4-21 as a team.

Atlanta has a win-loss mark of 40-42 for the campaign. The Hawks are responsible for committing 19.1 fouls per contest and they go 77.5% from the charity stripe. They are assisting teammates 29.6 times per contest (2nd in basketball) and they are turning it over 15.5 times per game. Atlanta has accumulated 9,691 pts this season (118.2 per contest) and they average 44.5 boards per contest. On the offensive side of the court, the Hawks are shooting 47.2% from the floor, which ranks them 14th in the league.

The Hawks are ranked 27th in the NBA in points per game surrendered with 119.3. They are forcing their opponents into 16.0 TO's per game and allow teams to shoot 48.1% from the field (28th in the league). The Atlanta defense allows 37.7% from downtown (1,169 of 3,098) and opponents are making 80.2% of their shots from the charity stripe. They have given up 28.2 dimes and 43.7 boards per game, which has them ranked 24th and 12th in basketball.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Miami (+1.0)

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