Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, 4/28/2025 Preview and Pick

Game: Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors

Date: Monday, April 28, 2025

Location: Chase Center in San Francisco, CA

TV: TNT

Odds/Point Spread: Houston (+4.0)

The Golden State Warriors (48-34) will try to beat the Houston Rockets (52-30) at Chase Center on Monday in Game 4 of the Western Conference First Round. The Warriors lead the series 2-1. Golden State opens this matchup as 4-point favorites from oddsmakers. The over/under is set at 203.

The Rockets walked away from Game 3 with a loss by a score of 104-93. When talking about fouls, the Rockets left the arena with 17 and the Warriors recorded 21 fouls. They converted 14 of their 45 tries from three-point range. Golden State shot 80.0% at the free throw line by making 12 of 15 shots. On top of that, Golden State snagged 45 rebounds (10 offensive, 35 defensive) and had 6 blocks. Golden State recorded 26 dimes and had 9 steals for the contest. When it comes to defending, Houston allowed the other team to shoot 43.3% from the floor on 39 of 90 shooting. They also doled out 19 dimes in this contest as well as forcing 10 turnovers and having 5 steals. In terms of grabbing boards, they earned 51 with 15 of them being on the offensive end. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Rockets converted 14 of 24 attempts for a rate of 58.3%. Houston finished the game with a 39.5% field goal percentage (34 of 86) and converted 11 of 28 shots from beyond the perimeter.

Fred VanVleet is someone who had an impact in this matchup. He was able to score 17 points on 5 of 14 shooting. He was on the hardwood for 41 minutes played and also snagged 4 boards. VanVleet finished the game at 35.7% from the floor and recorded 3 dimes.

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Houston heads into this game with a record of 52-30 so far this season. They average 114.3 points per outing (14th in the league) while shooting 45.5% from the field. The Rockets are shooting 35.3% from downtown (1,038 of 2,938) and 73.8% from the charity stripe. As a team, Houston is collecting 48.5 rebounds per contest and has accumulated 1,914 dimes for the year, which is 28th in the league in terms of passing the ball. They are turning it over 13.9 times per contest and as a squad are committing 19.0 fouls on a nightly basis.

Defensively, the Rockets have forced 14.3 turnovers per game and they draw 19.2 fouls. They currently rank 2nd in the NBA in giving up assists to their opponents with 1,926 relinquished for the year. The Rockets defense is allowing a shooting percentage of 45.9% (3,322 of 7,244) and they concede 42.1 boards per game as a basketball team. They surrender 35.7% on shots from distance and they are ranked 6th in the league in PPG allowed (109.8).

In Game 3, With respect to team rebounding, Golden State permitted Houston to snag 51 in all (15 on the offensive side). They finished 39.3% from beyond the arc via 11 of 28 and finished the game at 14 out of 24 at the free throw line (58.3%). The Warriors allowed the Rockets to knock down 34 out of their 86 attempts from the field which had them sitting at 39.5% for this contest. When the game finished, the Warriors ended up going 39 for 90 from the field which gave them a rate of 43.3%. In regard to 3-pointers, Golden State made 14 of their 45 attempts (31.1%). They were able to make 12 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 80.0%. The Rockets had 17 personal fouls for the contest which got the Warriors to the charity stripe for a total of 15 attempts. They turned the ball over 10 times, while recording 9 steals for this game. the Warriors earned 35 defensive rebounds and 10 offensive boards totaling 45 in this matchup.

Stephen Curry ended up being a factor for the Warriors for the matchup. Curry scored 36 points in his 41 minutes on the hardwood and earned 9 dimes for the game. He made 12 of 23 in the matchup for a rate of 52.2%, and had 7 rebounds.

Golden State has a record of 48-34 for the campaign. When it comes to executing on offense, the Warriors are shooting 45.1% from the field, which is ranked 25th in basketball. Golden State has tallied 9,331 pts for the campaign (113.8 per contest) and they grab 45.4 rebounds per contest. Their rate of assisting teammates is at 29.1 times per contest (4th in basketball) and they are turning it over 14.0 times per contest. The Warriors are responsible for committing 19.2 fouls every game and they shoot 76.4% from the free throw line.

The Golden State defense allows 36.3% on shots from beyond the perimeter (1,080 of 2,976) and their opponents are connecting on 76.9% of their foul shots. They have conceded 25.9 assists and 44.1 boards every game, which has them ranked 10th and 15th in the NBA. The Warriors on defense are ranked 8th in the league in points per game surrendered with 110.5. They are able to force 15.7 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 46.5% from the floor (11th in basketball).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Golden State (-4.0)

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