Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, 5/11/2024 Preview and Pick

Game: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks

Date: Saturday, May 11, 2024

Location: American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Oklahoma City (+2)

The Oklahoma City Thunder are headed to American Airlines Center on Saturday where they will try to defeat the Dallas Mavericks in Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The series is tied 1-1. Dallas opens this game as 2-point favorites. The total is 219.5.

The Thunder went home with a loss by a final score of 119-110 in Game 2. Concerning personal fouls, the Thunder finished with 18 and the Mavericks finished the game with 21 personal fouls. They converted 18 of their 37 tries from 3-point land. Dallas finished 70.8% at the free throw line by converting 17 of their 24 tries. Moreover, Dallas snagged 44 rebounds (12 offensive, 32 defensive) and added 6 rejections. Dallas distributed 30 assists and had 8 steals for the matchup. With regard to the defense, Oklahoma City let their opponent shoot 46.7% from the floor on 42 of 90 shooting. They also recorded 25 dimes in the game in addition to creating 10 turnovers and earning 5 steals. With regard to pulling down rebounds, they collected 41 with 8 of them being of the offensive variety. From the free throw line, the Thunder converted 16 of 17 attempts for a percentage of 94.1%. Oklahoma City ended the game having earned a 47.2% field goal percentage (42 out of 89) and converted 10 out of their 30 3-point attempts.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is someone who came through in the matchup. He walked away with 33 points on 13 of 24 shooting. He saw the court for 41 mins and also snagged 12 boards. Gilgeous-Alexander ended up shooting 54.2% from the floor and also dished out 8 assists.

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Oklahoma City will enter this matchup with a record of 57-25 so far this year. They have an average of 120.1 pts per contest (3rd in basketball) while shooting 49.9% from the field. The Thunder are connecting on 38.9% from downtown (1,090 of 2,805) and 82.5% from the charity stripe. As a team, Oklahoma City is pulling in 42.0 boards per contest and has accounted for 2,223 dimes on the campaign, which is 11th in the league in terms of passing the ball. They lose possession by turning the ball over 12.7 times per contest and as a team they are committing 18.8 fouls on a nightly basis.

On defense, the Thunder are able to force 15.7 turnovers per game while drawing 18.9 fouls. They are 18th in the NBA in giving up assists to the opposition with 2,207 relinquished for the season. The Thunder defense is giving up an opponent FG percentage of 45.5% (3,328 of 7,322) and they surrender 44.7 boards per game as a squad. They relinquish 36.1% from beyond the arc and they are ranked 11th in basketball in opponents points per game (112.7).

In Game 2, the Mavericks were able to corral 32 defensive boards and 12 offensive rebounds totaling 44 for this game. They also gave up possession of the ball 10 times, while recording 8 steals in this contest. The Thunder committed 18 personal fouls in this game which took the Mavericks to the charity stripe for 24 shots. They were able to convert 17 of the free throw tries for a rate of 70.8%. Regarding 3-pointers, Dallas converted 18 of their 37 tries (48.6%). At the conclusion of this game, the Mavericks walked away from this one shooting 42 for 90 from the field which gave them a rate of 46.7%. The Mavericks allowed the Thunder to convert 42 of their 89 attempts from the floor which left them with a shooting percentage of 47.2% for the contest. They finished 33.3% from distance by connecting on 10 of 30 and finished the game at 16 out of 17 at the free throw line (94.1%). When it comes to rebounding, Dallas permitted Oklahoma City to get 41 in all (8 offensive).

Luka Doncic ended up being important for the Mavericks in the matchup. Doncic totaled 29 points in his 41 minutes on the court and had 7 dimes for this game. He made 11 out of 21 in this game for a field goal percentage of 52.4%, and had 10 rebounds.

Dallas has a win-loss record of 50-32 so far this year. The Mavericks are committing 18.3 fouls per game and they shoot 75.8% from the free throw line. They are assisting teammates 25.7 times per game (19th in basketball) and they are turning it over 12.5 times per contest. Dallas has accounted for 9,664 pts on the campaign (117.9 per contest) and they average 42.9 rebounds per contest. As an offense, the Mavericks are shooting 48.1% from the field, which ranks them 11th in the league.

The Mavericks on defense are ranked 20th in basketball in points allowed per contest with 115.6. They are able to force 13.7 turnovers on a nightly basis and have let teams shoot 47.5% from the floor (20th in the league). The Dallas defense allows 36.8% on shots from 3-point land (1,075 of 2,921) and opponents are knocking down 77.0% of their free throw shots. They allow 27.5 assists and 45.1 boards on a nightly basis, which ranks them 22nd and 25th in the league.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Oklahoma City (+2)

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