Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, 5/30/2024 Preview and Pick

Game: Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Date: Thursday, May 30, 2024

Location: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

TV: TNT

Odds/Point Spread: Dallas (+4)

The Minnesota Timberwolves welcome the Dallas Mavericks at Target Center on Thursday in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. The Mavs lead the series 3-1. Minnesota opens this matchup as 4-point favorites from oddsmakers. The over/under is set at 208.5.

The Mavericks walked away from Game 4 with a loss by a score of 105-100. In reference to personal fouls, the Mavericks ended up walking away with 22 and the Timberwolves accumulated 23 personal fouls. They buried 11 of 24 shots from long range. Minnesota went 64.0% from the charity stripe by making 16 of their 25 shots. On top of that, Minnesota collected 40 rebounds (6 offensive, 34 defensive) and had 4 blocks. Minnesota totaled 23 dimes and had 9 steals in the game. In regard to defense, Dallas allowed 52.7% from the field on 39 of 74 shooting. They also doled out 23 assists for this contest while forcing 14 turnovers and earning 6 steals. Regarding grabbing boards, they compiled a total of 38 with 10 of them being on the offensive end. At the free throw line, the Mavericks knocked down 18 of 21 attempts for a percentage of 85.7%. Dallas finished with a 42.0% FG percentage (34 out of 81) and knocked down 14 out of their 40 three-point shots.

Luka Doncic is one guy who was a major factor for the matchup. Doncic ended up shooting 33.3% from the field and earned 10 assists. He was on the court for 41 mins and also snagged 15 rebounds. He racked up 28 points on 7 of 21 shooting.

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Dallas will play this game with a mark of 50-32 on the year. They are giving up possession 12.5 times per contest and as a group are committing 18.3 personal fouls per contest. As a team, Dallas is collecting 42.9 boards per game and has 2,106 dimes for the season, which is 19th in the NBA in terms of passing. The Mavericks are shooting 36.9% on 3-point shots (1,197 of 3,242) and 75.8% from the free throw line. They currently have an average of 117.9 points per outing (7th in the league) while going 48.1% from the field.

On the defensive end, the Mavericks are forcing 13.7 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 20.3 fouls. They are currently ranked 22nd in the NBA in allowing assists to the opposition with 2,258 relinquished for the year. The Mavericks defense is allowing a field goal percentage of 47.5% (3,522 of 7,413) and they concede 45.1 boards per game as a team. They are giving up 36.8% from beyond the arc while they are 20th in basketball in points per game from their opponents (115.6).

Concerning how they attacked the glass in Game 4, Minnesota permitted Dallas to collect 38 in all (10 offensive). They wrapped up this game 35.0% from 3-point land by shooting 14 out of 40 and finished the contest at 18 out of 21 from the free throw line (85.7%). The Timberwolves allowed the Mavericks to bury 34 of their 81 attempts from the field which gave them a rate of 42.0% in this matchup. When all was said and done, the Timberwolves went 39 for 74 from the field which had them sitting at 52.7%. When talking about shooting from beyond the arc, Minnesota converted 11 of 24 attempts (45.8%). They were able to knock down 16 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 64.0%. The Mavericks committed 22 personal fouls in this matchup which took the Timberwolves to the charity stripe for a total of 25 attempts. They gave up possession 14 times, while getting 9 steals for the matchup. The Timberwolves pulled down 34 defensive rebounds and 6 offensive rebounds totaling 40 for the contest.

Anthony Edwards ended up being a factor for the Timberwolves in this matchup. Edwards totaled 29 points in his 40 mins on the court and added 9 dimes in the game. He made 11 out of 25 in the game for a rate of 44.0%, and had 10 rebounds.

Minnesota has a record of 56-26 this year. The Timberwolves commit 18.8 personal fouls per game and they go 77.7% from the free throw line. They are assisting teammates 26.6 times per game (15th in the league) and they turn the ball over 14.2 times per game. Minnesota has scored 9,264 points for the year (113.0 per game) and they snag 43.6 boards per game. As an offense, the Timberwolves are hitting on 48.5% from the floor, which ranks them 10th in the league.

The Minnesota defense concedes 35.4% on shots from beyond the arc (937 of 2,645) and opponents are connecting on 78.1% of their free throw attempts. They have allowed 24.5 assists and 41.4 total rebounds per game, which ranks 3rd and 4th in the league. The Timberwolves on the defensive side of the court are 1st in the league in points given up per game with 106.5. They are forcing their opponents into 14.2 turnovers per game and have let teams shoot 45.0% from the floor (1st in the league).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Minnesota (-4)

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