Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Prediction, 4/24/2023 Preview and Pick

Game: Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat

Date: Monday, April 24, 2023

Location: Kaseya Center in Miami, FL

TV: TNT

Odds/Point Spread: Milwaukee (-4)

The Milwaukee Bucks are on their way to Kaseya Center on Monday where they will try to defeat the Miami Heat in Game 4 of their series. The Heat lead 2-1. Miami opens as 4-point dogs. The betting total comes in at 218.

The Bucks walked away from Game 3 with a loss by a score of 121-99. Milwaukee wrapped up the contest with a 44.7% FG percentage (38 of 85) and buried 15 of their 39 shots from beyond the arc. From the free throw line, the Bucks converted 8 of their 12 tries for a percentage of 66.7%. Concerning getting rebounds, they collected 37 with 8 of them being on the offensive end. They also dished out 22 dimes for this game in addition to forcing the other team into 13 turnovers and earning 7 steals. When it comes to defending, Milwaukee allowed their opponent to shoot 53.6% from the floor on 45 of 84 shooting. Miami totaled 22 dimes and had 13 steals for the contest. In addition, Miami grabbed 44 rebounds (8 offensive, 36 defensive) and had 3 blocked shots. Miami ended up going 88.2% at the charity stripe by knocking down 15 of 17 shots. They also made 16 out of their 33 shots from 3-point land. In reference to personal fouls, the Bucks ended up walking away with 15 while the Heat accumulated 18 personal fouls.

Khris Middleton is someone who had an impact in the game. He ended up with 23 points on 8 out of 14 shooting. He was on the court for 34 mins and also totaled 5 boards. Middleton finished 57.1% from the floor and distributed 6 dimes.

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Milwaukee steps onto the hardwood with a record of 58-24 for the campaign. They currently have an average of 116.9 points per outing (8th in the league) while connecting on 47.3% from the floor. The Bucks are connecting on 36.8% on shots from beyond the arc (1,217 of 3,306) and 74.3% from the charity stripe. As a unit, Milwaukee is collecting 48.6 boards per game and has earned 2,115 dimes so far this year, which is 12th in the league in terms of passing the ball. They are losing possession via turnover 14.6 times per contest and as a group are committing 18.1 personal fouls every game.

When they are on defense, the Bucks are forcing 11.8 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 19.0 personal fouls. They rank 5th in the league in giving up assists with 1,963 conceded on the season. The Bucks are allowing an opponent shooting percentage of 45.6% (3,483 of 7,644) and they concede 44.2 rebounds per game as a unit. They surrender 35.4% on 3-pointers while they are 14th in basketball in PPG allowed (113.3).

With respect to rebounds in Game 3, Miami permitted Milwaukee to grab 37 in all (8 on the offensive side). They shot 38.5% from three-point range by connecting on 15 out of 39 and finished the contest at 8 of 12 from the free throw line (66.7%). The Heat allowed the Bucks to convert 38 out of their 85 attempts from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 44.7% for the game. When all was said and done, the Heat shot 45 for 84 from the floor which had them shooting 53.6%. In reference to shots from 3-point land, Miami buried 16 of their 33 tries (48.5%). They were able to knock down 15 of the free throw tries for a rate of 88.2%. The Bucks committed 15 fouls for this contest which got the Heat to the charity stripe for a total of 17 tries. They also turned it over 13 times, while getting 13 steals for this contest. The Heat recorded 36 defensive boards and 8 offensive rebounds for a total of 44 in this matchup.

Jimmy Butler was important for the Heat in this game. Butler racked up 30 points in his 28 minutes on the court and earned 4 dimes for the contest. He made 12 of 19 in this contest for a rate of 63.2%, and totaled 5 rebounds.

Miami has a mark of 44-38 so far this season. When it comes to offensive execution, the Heat are connecting on 46.0% from the floor, which is 26th in the league. Miami has totaled 8,977 points so far this year (109.5 per game) and they pull down 40.6 rebounds per game. Their rate of assisting teammates is at 23.8 times per game (25th in the NBA) and they lose possession by turning the ball over 13.5 times per game. The Heat commit 18.5 fouls every game and they hit 83.1% from the free throw line.

The Miami defense gives up 36.7% on shots from distance (1,077 of 2,933) and opponents are knocking down 78.1% of their shots from the charity stripe. They have relinquished 25.6 assists and 41.8 rebounds per contest, which has them ranked 14th and 6th in the NBA. The Heat on the defensive end are ranked 2nd in basketball in points allowed per game with 109.8. They have forced 15.7 TO's per game and have let teams shoot 48.2% from the floor (22nd in the NBA).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Miami (+4)

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