Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, 4/26/2023 Preview and Pick

Game: Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks

Date: Wednesday, April 26, 2023

Location: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI

TV: NBATV

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+11)

The Milwaukee Bucks will take on the Miami Heat at Fiserv Forum on Wednesday in Game 5 of their series. The Heat lead 3-1. Milwaukee opens this matchup as 11-point favorites. The total is 218.5.

The Heat went home with a win by a final score of 119-114 in Game 4. Regarding personal fouls, the Heat walked away with 20 while the Bucks recorded 20 personal fouls. They made 13 of their 40 shots from three-point range. Milwaukee walked away from this one shooting 85.0% at the charity stripe by burying 17 of their 20 tries. Furthermore, Milwaukee pulled down 46 rebounds (16 offensive, 30 defensive) and earned 5 blocks. Milwaukee distributed 28 assists and had 10 steals for this game. Pertaining to defending, Miami allowed the other team to shoot 43.3% from the field on 42 out of 97 shooting. They also doled out 21 assists for this contest while creating 14 turnovers and having 9 steals. Regarding grabbing rebounds, they compiled 47 with 9 of them being offensive. At the free throw line, the Heat converted 20 of their 25 tries for a rate of 80.0%. Miami finished the game with a 49.4% FG percentage (43 out of 87) and made 13 of 32 shots from beyond the perimeter.

Jimmy Butler is a guy who had an impact in this matchup. He racked up 56 points on 19 out of 28 shooting. He saw the court for 41 minutes and collected 9 rebounds. Butler finished shooting 67.9% from the field and also distributed 2 dimes.

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Miami enters this one with a win-loss mark of 44-38 for the season. They turn it over 13.5 times per contest and as a unit they commit 18.5 fouls per contest. As a team, Miami is pulling in 40.6 rebounds per contest and has 1,955 assists for the season, which has them ranked 25th in the league in terms of passing the ball. The Heat are hitting 34.4% on shots from distance (980 of 2,852) and 83.1% from the free throw line. They are averaging 109.5 points per contest (30th in the league) while shooting 46.0% from the field.

When they are on defense, the Heat are forcing 15.7 turnovers per contest and they draw 20.0 personal fouls. They concede 36.7% on 3-point attempts and they are ranked 2nd in the NBA in opponents PPG (109.8). The Heat defense is giving up a FG percentage of 48.2% (3,288 of 6,822) and they relinquish 41.8 boards per game as a basketball team. They are 14th in basketball in giving up assists with 2,097 relinquished for the year.

In Game 4 the Bucks earned 30 defensive boards and 16 offensive boards for a total of 46 for this game. They turned the ball over 14 times, while recording 10 steals for the game. The Heat were called for 20 fouls for this game which took the Bucks to the charity stripe for a total of 20 attempts. They were able to knock down 17 of them for a rate of 85.0%. When it comes to shots from beyond the arc, Milwaukee made 13 of their 40 attempts (32.5%). In all, the Bucks finished 42 out of 97 from the field which had them at 43.3%. The Bucks permitted the Heat to make 43 out of their 87 tries from the field which left them with a shooting percentage of 49.4% in the game. They finished 40.6% from three-point range by going 13 out of 32 and finished the game at 20 out of 25 at the free throw line (80.0%). In relation to attacking the glass, Milwaukee permitted Miami to snag 47 in all (9 on the offensive glass).

Brook Lopez ended up being a factor for the Bucks in the game. Lopez scored 36 points in his 39 minutes on the court, but didn't record an assist. He knocked down 13 of 23 in the matchup for a field goal percentage of 56.5%, and added 11 rebounds.

Milwaukee has a mark of 58-24 on the year. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bucks are connecting on 47.3% from the field, which is ranked 19th in basketball. Milwaukee has totaled 9,589 pts so far this year (116.9 per game) and they collect 48.6 rebounds per game. Their rate of earning assists is at 25.8 times per contest (12th in basketball) and they turn it over 14.6 times per contest. The Bucks are committing 18.1 fouls every game and they go 74.3% from the charity stripe.

The Bucks on the defensive end are ranked 14th in basketball in points per game surrendered with 113.3. They have forced 11.8 TO's per game and have allowed teams to shoot 45.6% from the floor (2nd in the NBA). The Milwaukee defense gives up 35.4% from downtown (991 of 2,799) and their opponents are knocking down 77.6% of their free throw shots. They surrender 23.9 assists and 44.2 boards on a nightly basis, which ranks them 5th and 20th in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Miami (+11)

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