Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, 6/12/2023 Preview and Pick

Game: Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets

Date: Monday, June 12, 2023

Location: Ball Arena in Denver, CO

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+10)

Ball Arena is the site where the Denver Nuggets will try to defeat the Miami Heat on Monday in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. Denver leads 3-1. Miami opens this matchup as 10-point dogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under has been set at 208.5.

The Heat ended up losing by a score of 108-95 in Game 4. In regard to personal fouls, the Heat ended up finishing with 19 while the Nuggets had 18 personal fouls. They converted 14 of their 28 shots from distance. Denver walked away from this one shooting 76.2% at the charity stripe by burying 16 of 21 attempts. On top of that, Denver grabbed 34 rebounds (5 offensive, 29 defensive) and added 3 blocked shots. Denver dished out 26 dimes and had 11 steals in this game. In relation to the defense, Miami allowed the other team to go 49.4% from the field on 39 out of 79 shooting. They also doled out 23 assists in this contest while forcing the opposition into 6 turnovers and having 2 steals. In reference to pulling down rebounds, they collected 37 with 8 of them being of the offensive variety. At the charity stripe, the Heat made 17 of 20 tries for a rate of 85.0%. Miami walked away from the contest having earned a 44.9% field goal percentage (35 out of 78) and buried 8 out of their 25 shots from beyond the perimeter.

Jimmy Butler is one guy who was important in this contest. He had 25 points on 9 of 17 shooting. He played 45 mins played and also pulled down 7 rebounds. Butler finished shooting 52.9% from the floor and dished out 7 dimes.

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Miami enters this game with a mark of 44-38 for the campaign. They currently have an average of 109.5 points per game (30th in the league) while shooting 46.0% from the floor. The Heat are connecting on 34.4% on 3-point shots (980 of 2,852) and 83.1% from the charity stripe. As a team, Miami is pulling in 40.6 rebounds per game and has racked up 1,955 dimes this season, which has them ranked 25th in the league in terms of passing the ball. They are turning it over 13.5 times per game and as a basketball team they are committing 18.5 personal fouls on a nightly basis.

On the defensive end, the Heat are forcing their opponents into 15.7 turnovers per game and they draw 20.0 personal fouls. They rank 14th in the league in giving up assists to the opposition with 2,097 conceded this season. The Heat are giving up a shooting percentage of 48.2% (3,288 of 6,822) and they surrender 41.8 boards per contest as a team. They give up 36.7% on 3-pointers and they are ranked 2nd in basketball in points per game allowed (109.8).

In Game 4, the Nuggets corralled 29 defensive rebounds and 5 offensive boards totaling 34 in this contest. They coughed up the ball 6 times, while recording 11 steals in this game. The Heat earned 19 personal fouls for the matchup which got the Nuggets to the charity stripe for 21 attempts. They were able to bury 16 of the free throw tries for a rate of 76.2%. Regarding shots from downtown, Denver buried 14 of their 28 attempts (50.0%). When all was said and done, the Nuggets went 39 out of 79 from the floor which had them shooting 49.4%. The Nuggets permitted the Heat to convert 35 of their 78 tries from the field which had them sitting at 44.9% for the matchup. They shot 32.0% from 3-point land by going 8 of 25 and ended up going 17 of 20 from the free throw line (85.0%). Concerning attacking the glass, Denver permitted Miami to grab 37 overall (8 on the offensive side).

Aaron Gordon pitched in for the Nuggets in this contest. Gordon totaled 27 points in his 42 minutes on the hardwood and had 6 dimes for the contest. He made 11 out of 15 for the matchup for a field goal percentage of 73.3%, and accumulated 7 rebounds.

Denver has a win-loss mark of 53-29 this season. On the offensive side of the court, the Nuggets are hitting on 50.4% from the field, which ranks them 1st in the league. Denver has accumulated 9,495 pts for the year (115.8 per contest) and they collect 43.0 rebounds per game. They are dishing out assists 28.9 times per contest (2nd in basketball) and they are giving up possession 14.5 times per game. The Nuggets have committed 18.6 fouls every game and they connect on 75.1% from the charity stripe.

The Nuggets on the defensive side of the court are 8th in the league in PPG allowed with 112.5. They have forced 13.5 TO's per game and have allowed teams to shoot 47.8% from the field (20th in the league). The Denver defense surrenders 34.4% on shots from distance (933 of 2,711) and opponents are connecting on 77.5% of their shots from the free throw line. They have surrendered 25.7 assists and 40.8 boards on a nightly basis, which has them ranked 16th and 1st in basketball.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Denver (-10)

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