Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers Prediction, 9/30/2020 NBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers

Date: Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Location: AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Los Angeles -5

Total/Over-Under: 217.5

Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers host the Miami Heat at AdventHealth Arena on Wednesday in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Los Angeles opens this matchup as 5-point favorites. The over/under opens at 217.5.

The Lakers are coming off a 4-1 series win in the Western Conference Finals against Denver. Lebron James is averaging 26.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 8.9 assists so far this postseason. The Miami Heat advanced by beating the Boston Celtics in 6 games. Bam Adebayo has been a real difference maker for the Heat this postseason. The former Kentucky Wildcat is averaging 18.5 pts, 11.4 boards, and 4.9 dimes this postseason. 

The Heat cover 55.8% of the time, having gone 48-38-2 ATS. Los Angeles is covering 53.6% of the time, going 45-39-2 against the spread.

Key Miami Heat Injuries

9/28/2020 Gabe Vincent PG Knee Game Time Decision
9/28/2020 Chris Silva PF Pelvis Game Time Decision

Key Los Angeles Lakers Injuries

9/28/2020 Dion Waiters SG Groin Game Time Decision

Player Spotlight

Jimmy Butler averages 19.9 points per game in 33.8 minutes per contest. He averages 6.0 assists per contest and 6.7 rebounds per game. His field goal percentage is 46% for the year while his free throw percentage is 83%. Bam Adebayo comes into this contest averaging 15.9 points per game while playing 33.6 minutes per night. He pulls down 10.2 rebounds per game and dishes out 5.1 assists per game as well. His field goal percentage is 56% while his free throw percentage is at 69%.

Player Spotlight

LeBron James averages 25.3 points per game and he sees the court an average of 34.6 minutes per contest. He also averages 7.8 rebounds per contest and 10.2 assists per game. His field goal percentage is 49% and his free throw percentage is 69%. Anthony Davis averages 26.1 points per game while playing 34.4 minutes per contest. He grabs 9.3 rebounds per game and has 3.2 assists per contest on the year. His field goal percentage is 50% and his free throw percentage is at 85%.

Useful Team Statistics

The Heat allow 109.1 points per game to their opponents which ranks them 10th in the league. They also allow a 45% shooting percentage and a 35% average from behind the arc, ranking them 7th and 6th in those defensive categories. Opponents average 42.5 rebounds a game which ranks 3rd, and they give up 24.6 assists per contest which puts them in 15th place in the league. They force 14.0 turnovers per game which ranks them 10th in the league. Miami averages 112.0 points per contest this season, which ranks them 15th in the NBA. Their average scoring margin is 3.0 and their shooting percentage is 47% as a team, which has them ranked 8th. Behind the arc they shoot 38% which is good for 2nd in the league. They average 44.4 rebounds per game and 25.9 assists per contest, which ranks them 17th and 5th in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they rank 13th with 14.9 per game.

Useful Team Statistics

The Lakers surrender 107.6 points per contest, which ranks them 4th in the NBA. Their defense allows a 45% shooting percentage and a 35% average from 3-point range, ranking them 8th and 8th in those defensive statistics. They rank 7th with 23.4 assists allowed per contest, and 2nd with 42.3 rebounds surrendered per game. The Lakers are 26th in the NBA in forcing turnovers with 15.9 per game. Los Angeles is 11th in the league with 113.4 points per game this year. They are 1st in the league in shooting at 48%, while their average scoring margin is 5.8. They shoot 35% from 3-point range, which is good for 22nd in the NBA. They are 9th in the league in rebounding with 45.7 boards per game and 10th in assists per contest with 25.4. The Lakers are 9th in turnovers per game with 15.2.

Advanced Statistics

The Heat are 7th in the league in defensive rating with 109.5, and their offensive rating of 112.5 is ranked 10th. They are 27th in the NBA in pace with 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 55% is 3rd. As a unit they are 1st in the league in true shooting percentage with 59% and they shoot 3-pointers on 42% of their shot attempts, ranking 7th in the NBA. Miami is 7th in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13.5 times per 100 possessions while forcing 12.6 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 52%, which is 20th in the NBA.

Advanced Statistics

Los Angeles is 9th in the league in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13.3 times per 100 possessions while forcing 14.1 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 52%, which is 24th in the NBA. The Lakers are 11th in the league in defensive rating with 106.3, and their offensive rating of 112 is ranked 3rd. They are 12th in the NBA in pace with 100.9 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 54% is 5th. As a unit they are 10th in the league in true shooting percentage with 57% and they shoot 3-pointers on 36% of their shot attempts, ranking 23rd in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's Heat/Lakers NBA game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Miami +5

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