Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers Prediction, 10/9/2020 NBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers

Date: Friday, October 9, 2020

Location: AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Los Angeles -7

Total/Over-Under: 216

Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat travel to AdventHealth Arena on Friday where they'll take on the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. Los Angeles opens this game as 7-point favorites. The O/U is set at 216.

The Lakers took a commanding 3-1 series lead with a 102-96 win in Game 4 on Tuesday night. LeBron James finished with 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists to lead L.A. Anthony Davis had 22 pts, 9 rebounds, and 4 blocks. Jimmy Butler had another great game for Miami, tallying 22 pts, 10 boards, and 9 dimes, just narrowly missing another triple-double. Bam Adebayo returned from injury for the Heat, collecting 15 points and 7 boards. 

The Heat are covering 56.7% of the time, having gone 51-39-2 ATS. Los Angeles is covering the spread 52.3% of the time, going 46-42-2 against the spread.

Key Miami Heat Injuries

10/7/2020 Gabe Vincent PG Knee Game Time Decision
10/7/2020 Goran Dragic PG Foot Game Time Decision

Key Los Angeles Lakers Injuries

No key injuries to report

Player Spotlight

Bam Adebayo comes into this game averaging 15.9 points per contest while playing 33.6 minutes per night this year. He grabs 10.2 rebounds per contest and distributes 5.1 assists per game. His FG percentage is 56% while his free throw percentage is 69%. Jimmy Butler averages 19.9 points per contest in 33.8 minutes per game. He averages 6.0 assists per game and 6.7 rebounds per contest. His field goal percentage is 46% for the season while his free throw percentage is 83%.

Player Spotlight

Anthony Davis scores 26.1 points per contest while playing 34.4 minutes per game. He hauls in 9.3 rebounds per contest and has 3.2 assists per game on the season. His FG percentage is 50% and his free throw percentage is at 85%. LeBron James averages 25.3 points per game this year and he sees the court an average of 34.6 minutes per game. He also brings in 7.8 rebounds per game and has 10.2 assists per contest. His field goal percentage is 49% and his free throw percentage is 69%.

Useful Team Statistics

Miami averages 112.0 points per contest, which is 15th in the league. Their average scoring margin is 3.0 and their shooting percentage is 47% as a unit, which has them ranked 8th. From 3-point territory they shoot 38%, which is good for 2nd in the NBA. They average 44.4 boards per contest and 25.9 assists per game, which ranks them 17th and 5th in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they are 13th with 14.9 per game. The Heat allow 109.1 points per contest, which is 10th in the NBA. They also surrender a 45% shooting percentage and a 35% average from 3-point range, ranking them 7th and 6th in defensive field goal percentage. Opponents average 42.5 rebounds a game which ranks 3rd, and they allow 24.6 assists per game which puts them in 15th place in the league. They force 14.0 turnovers per game which ranks them 10th in the NBA.

Useful Team Statistics

Los Angeles is 11th in the NBA with 113.4 points per contest this season. They are 1st in the league in shooting at 48%, while their average scoring margin is 5.79. They shoot 35% from beyond the arc, which is good for 22nd in the league. They are 9th in the NBA in rebounding with 45.7 boards per contest and 10th in assists per game with 25.4. The Lakers are 9th in turnovers per contest with 15.2. The Lakers give up 107.6 points per game, which ranks them 4th in the league. Their defense surrenders a 45% shooting percentage and a 35% average from behind the 3-point line, ranking them 8th and 8th in those defensive statistics. They rank 7th with 23.4 dimes allowed per game and 2nd with 42.3 boards surrendered per contest. The Lakers are 26th in the league in forcing turnovers with 15.9 per contest this year.

Advanced Statistics

The Heat are 7th in the league in defensive rating with 109.5, and their offensive rating of 112.5 is ranked 10th. They are 27th in the NBA in pace with 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 55% is 3rd. As a unit they are 1st in the league in true shooting percentage with 59% and they shoot 3-pointers on 42% of their shot attempts, ranking 7th in the NBA. Miami is 7th in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13.5 times per 100 possessions while forcing 12.6 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 52%, which is 20th in the NBA.

Advanced Statistics

Los Angeles is 9th in the league in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13.3 times per 100 possessions while forcing 14.1 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 52%, which is 24th in the NBA. The Lakers are 11th in the league in defensive rating with 106.3, and their offensive rating of 112 is ranked 3rd. They are 12th in the NBA in pace with 100.9 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 54% is 5th. As a unit they are 10th in the league in true shooting percentage with 57% and they shoot 3-pointers on 36% of their shot attempts, ranking 23rd in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's Heat/Lakers NBA game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Los Angeles -7

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