Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers Prediction, 10/2/2020 NBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers

Date: Friday, October 2, 2020

Location: AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Los Angeles -4.5

Total/Over-Under: 218

LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers play the Miami Heat at AdventHealth Arena on Friday in Game 2 of the NBA Finals. The line on this game has Los Angeles as 4.5-point favorites. The total opens at 218.

The Lakers took a 1-0 series lead on Wednesday with a 116-98 blowout win in Game 1. Anthony Davis shined for L.A., collecting 34 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists. James finished with 25 pts, 13 boards, and 9 dimes, just narrowly missing another postseason triple-double. Jimmy Butler led Miami with 23 points, 5 assists, and 2 steals, but he was hobbled by a sprained ankle. Both Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo left with injuries as well, so that's another storyline to watch moving forward. The early diagnosis on Dragic is a torn tendon in his foot, so that doesn't bode well for his availability. 

The Heat cover the spread 55.2% of the time, having gone 48-39-2 ATS. Los Angeles is covering 54.1% of the time, going 46-39-2 against the spread.

Key Miami Heat Injuries

10/1/2020 Bam Adebayo PF Neck Game Time Decision
10/1/2020 Gabe Vincent PG Knee Game Time Decision
10/1/2020 Chris Silva PF Pelvis Game Time Decision
9/30/2020 Goran Dragic PG Foot Game Time Decision

Key Los Angeles Lakers Injuries

No key injuries to report

Player Spotlight

Jimmy Butler comes into this contest averaging 19.9 points per game while playing 33.8 minutes per night this season. He pulls down 6.7 rebounds per game and dishes out 6.0 assists per game as well. His field goal percentage is 46% while his free throw percentage currently sits at 83%. Tyler Herro averages 13.5 points per game in 27.4 minutes per contest this season. He averages 2.2 assists per contest and 4.1 rebounds per game. His field goal percentage is 43% for the year while his free throw percentage is 87%.

Player Spotlight

LeBron James averages 25.3 points per game while playing 34.6 minutes per contest this year. He grabs 7.8 rebounds per game and has 10.2 assists per contest on the year. His field goal percentage is 49% and his free throw percentage is at 69%. Kyle Kuzma averages 12.8 points per game this season and he sees the court an average of 25.0 minutes per contest. He also averages 4.5 rebounds per contest and 1.3 assists per game. His field goal percentage is 44% and his free throw percentage is 74%.

Useful Team Statistics

Miami averages 112.0 points per contest this season, which ranks them 15th in the NBA. Their average scoring margin is 3.0 and their shooting percentage is 47% as a team, which has them ranked 8th. Behind the arc they shoot 38% which is good for 2nd in the league. They average 44.4 rebounds per game and 25.9 assists per game, which ranks them 17th and 5th in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they rank 13th with 14.9 per game. The Heat allow 109.1 points per game to their opponents which ranks them 10th in the league. They also allow a 45% shooting percentage and a 35% average from behind the arc, ranking them 7th and 6th in those defensive categories. Opponents average 42.5 rebounds a game which ranks 3rd and they give up 24.6 assists per contest, which puts them in 15th place in the league. They force 14.0 turnovers per game which ranks them 10th in the league.

Useful Team Statistics

Los Angeles is 11th in the league with 113.4 points per game this year. They are 1st in the league in shooting at 48%, while their average scoring margin is 5.8. They shoot 35% from 3-point range, which is good for 22nd in the NBA. They are 9th in the league in rebounding with 45.7 boards per game, and 10th in assists per contest with 25.4. The Lakers are 9th in turnovers per game with 15.2. The Lakers surrender 107.6 points per contest, which ranks them 4th in the NBA. Their defense allows a 45% shooting percentage and a 35% average from 3-point range, ranking them 8th and 8th in those defensive statistics. They rank 7th with 23.4 assists allowed per contest and 2nd with 42.3 rebounds surrendered per game. The Lakers are 26th in the NBA in forcing turnovers with 15.9 per game.

Advanced Statistics

The Heat are 7th in the league in defensive rating with 109.5, and their offensive rating of 112.5 is ranked 10th. They are 27th in the NBA in pace with 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 55% is 3rd. As a unit they are 1st in the league in true shooting percentage with 59% and they shoot 3-pointers on 42% of their shot attempts, ranking 7th in the NBA. Miami is 7th in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13.5 times per 100 possessions while forcing 12.6 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 52%, which is 20th in the NBA.

Advanced Statistics

Los Angeles is 9th in the league in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13.3 times per 100 possessions while forcing 14.1 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 52%, which is 24th in the NBA. The Lakers are 11th in the league in defensive rating with 106.3, and their offensive rating of 112 is ranked 3rd. They are 12th in the NBA in pace with 100.9 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 54% is 5th. As a unit they are 10th in the league in true shooting percentage with 57% and they shoot 3-pointers on 36% of their shot attempts, ranking 23rd in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's Heat/Lakers NBA game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Miami +4.5

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