Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Predictions, NBA Picks, Betting Tips 8/1/2020

Game: Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets

Date: Saturday, August 1, 2020

Location: HP Field House in Orlando, Florida

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Denver -1.5

Total/Over-Under: 216.5

Kendrick Nunn and the Miami Heat (41-24, 1st in the Southeast Division) go to HP Field House on Saturday where they'll meet the Denver Nuggets (43-22, 1st in the Northwest Division). Denver opens this matchup as 1.5-point favorites. The O/U is set at 216.5.

The Heat cover 52.4% of the time, having gone 33-30-2 ATS. Denver is covering 47.5% of the time, going 29-32-4 against the spread.

Key Miami Heat Injuries

07/24/20 C Bam Adebayo COVID-19 is upgraded to probable Saturday vs Denver
07/24/20 PG Kendrick Nunn COVID-19 is upgraded to probable Saturday vs Denver
07/13/20 SG Tyler Herro Ankle is probable Saturday vs Denver
07/13/20 SF Derrick Jones Jr. COVID-19 is upgraded to probable Saturday vs Denver
07/13/20 PF Meyers Leonard Ankle is upgraded to probable Saturday vs Denver

Key Denver Nuggets Injuries

07/30/20 SG Will Barton Knee is questionable Saturday vs Miami
07/30/20 SG PJ Dozier None is doubtful Saturday vs Miami
07/24/20 F Michael Porter Jr. COVID-19 is upgraded to probable Saturday vs Miami
07/18/20 C Nikola Jokic COVID-19 is upgraded to probable Saturday vs Miami

Player Spotlight

Kendrick Nunn comes into this contest averaging 15.6 points per game while playing 29.8 minutes per night this season. He pulls down 2.7 rebounds per game and dishes out 3.4 assists per game as well. His field goal percentage is 45% while his free throw percentage currently sits at 84%. Tyler Herro averages 12.9 points per game in 27.2 minutes per contest this season. He averages 1.9 assists per contest and 4.0 rebounds per game. His field goal percentage is 41% for the year while his free throw percentage is 84%.

Player Spotlight

Paul Millsap averages 12.0 points per game while playing 24.4 minutes per contest this year. He grabs 5.9 rebounds per game and has 1.6 assists per contest on the year. His field goal percentage is 49% and his free throw percentage is at 83%. Gary Harris averages 10.4 points per game this season and he sees the court an average of 31.8 minutes per contest. He also averages 2.9 rebounds per contest and 2.1 assists per game. His field goal percentage is 42% and his free throw percentage is 82%.

Useful Team Statistics

Miami averages 112.2 points per contest this season, which ranks them 15th in the NBA. Their average scoring margin is 3.2 and their shooting percentage is 47% as a team, which has them ranked 7th. Behind the arc they shoot 38% which is good for 1st in the league. They average 44.5 rebounds per game and 26.0 assists per game, which ranks them 16th and 5th in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they rank 14th with 14.9 per game. The Heat allow 108.9 points per game to their opponents which ranks them 11th in the league. They also allow a 45% shooting percentage and a 35% average from behind the arc, ranking them 7th and 8th in those defensive categories. Opponents average 42.2 rebounds a game which ranks 2nd and they give up 24.7 assists per contest, which puts them in 18th place in the league. They force 13.7 turnovers per game which ranks them 7th in the league.

Useful Team Statistics

Denver is 20th in the league with 110.4 points per game this year. They are 6th in the league in shooting at 47%, while their average scoring margin is 3.0. They shoot 36% from 3-point range, which is good for 15th in the NBA. They are 19th in the league in rebounding with 44.3 boards per game, and 4th in assists per contest with 26.5. The Nuggets are 23rd in turnovers per game with 13.7. The Nuggets surrender 107.4 points per contest, which ranks them 8th in the NBA. Their defense allows a 46% shooting percentage and a 35% average from 3-point range, ranking them 14th and 9th in those defensive statistics. They rank 22nd with 25.0 assists allowed per contest and 5th with 42.8 rebounds surrendered per game. The Nuggets are 14th in the NBA in forcing turnovers with 14.3 per game.

Advanced Statistics

The Heat are 6th in the NBA in offensive rating with 112.7, and their defensive rating of 109.4 is ranked 12th. In terms of pace they are 27th in the league with 98.1 possessions per 48 minutes, and their effective field goal percentage of 55% is 3rd. As a team they are 1st in the NBA in true shooting percentage with 59% and they shoot 3-pointers on 41% of their shots, ranking 7th in the league. Miami is 7th in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13.5 times per 100 possessions while forcing 12.3 on the defensive end. Their defensive effective field goal percentage for the season currently is 52%, which is 19th in the league.

Advanced Statistics

Denver is 23rd in the league in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 12.3 times per 100 possessions while forcing 13 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 53%, which is 16th in the NBA. The Nuggets are 9th in the league in defensive rating with 109.5, and their offensive rating of 112.5 is ranked 13th. They are 29th in the NBA in pace with 97.2 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 53% is 11th. As a unit they are 17th in the league in true shooting percentage with 56% and they shoot 3-pointers on 34% of their shot attempts, ranking 26th in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's Heat/Nuggets NBA game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Miami +1.5

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