Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction, 9/25/2020 NBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

Date: Friday, September 25, 2020

Location: AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Boston -2

Total/Over-Under: 213.5

AdventHealth Arena is the site where Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics will play the Miami Heat on Friday in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston opens this matchup as 2-point favorites. The over/under is set at 213.5.

The Heat are now 1 win away from the NBA Finals after earning a 112-109 win over Boston in Game 4. Tyler Herro was the hero for Miami, tallying 37 pts, 6 boards, and 3 assists. Jayson Tatum played well in the loss for Boston, collecting 28 pts, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists. The 20-year old rookie Herro stole the show, however, setting a Heat record for points by a rookie in a playoff game. 

The Heat are covering the spread 56.0% of the time, having gone 47-37-2 ATS. Boston is covering 60.2% of the time, going 50-33-4 against the spread.

Key Miami Heat Injuries

9/23/2020 Gabe Vincent PG Knee Game Time Decision
9/23/2020 Chris Silva PF Pelvis Game Time Decision

Key Boston Celtics Injuries

9/22/2020 Romeo Langford SG Wrist Out for the season

Player Spotlight

Tyler Herro comes into this game averaging 13.5 points per contest while playing 27.4 minutes per night this year. He grabs 4.1 rebounds per contest and distributes 2.2 assists per game. His FG percentage is 43% while his free throw percentage is 87%. Jimmy Butler averages 19.9 points per contest in 33.8 minutes per game. He averages 6.0 assists per game and 6.7 rebounds per contest. His field goal percentage is 46% for the season while his free throw percentage is 83%.

Player Spotlight

Jayson Tatum scores 23.4 points per contest while playing 34.3 minutes per game. He hauls in 7.0 rebounds per contest and has 3.0 assists per game on the season. His FG percentage is 45% and his free throw percentage is at 81%. Jaylen Brown averages 20.3 points per game this year and he sees the court an average of 33.9 minutes per game. He also brings in 6.4 rebounds per game and has 2.1 assists per contest. His field goal percentage is 48% and his free throw percentage is 72%.

Useful Team Statistics

Miami averages 112.0 points per contest, which is 15th in the league. Their average scoring margin is 3.0 and their shooting percentage is 47% as a unit, which has them ranked 8th. From 3-point territory they shoot 38%, which is good for 2nd in the NBA. They average 44.4 boards per contest and 25.9 assists per game, which ranks them 17th and 5th in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they are 13th with 14.9 per game. The Heat allow 109.1 points per contest, which is 10th in the NBA. They also surrender a 45% shooting percentage and a 35% average from 3-point range, ranking them 7th and 6th in defensive field goal percentage. Opponents average 42.5 rebounds a game which ranks 3rd, and they allow 24.6 assists per game which puts them in 15th place in the league. They force 14.0 turnovers per game which ranks them 10th in the NBA.

Useful Team Statistics

Boston is 9th in the NBA with 113.7 points per contest this season. They are 16th in the league in shooting at 46%, while their average scoring margin is 6.31. They shoot 36% from beyond the arc, which is good for 12th in the league. They are 8th in the NBA in rebounding with 46.1 boards per contest and 25th in assists per game with 23.0. The Celtics are 23rd in turnovers per contest with 13.8. The Celtics give up 107.3 points per game, which ranks them 2nd in the league. Their defense surrenders a 44% shooting percentage and a 34% average from behind the 3-point line, ranking them 4th and 2nd in those defensive statistics. They rank 2nd with 22.4 dimes allowed per game and 11th with 44.3 boards surrendered per contest. The Celtics are 22nd in the league in forcing turnovers with 15.2 per contest this year.

Advanced Statistics

The Heat are 7th in the league in defensive rating with 109.5, and their offensive rating of 112.5 is ranked 10th. They are 27th in the NBA in pace with 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 55% is 3rd. As a unit they are 1st in the league in true shooting percentage with 59% and they shoot 3-pointers on 42% of their shot attempts, ranking 7th in the NBA. Miami is 7th in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13.5 times per 100 possessions while forcing 12.6 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 52%, which is 20th in the NBA.

Advanced Statistics

Boston is 24th in the league in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 12.2 times per 100 possessions while forcing 13.5 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 51%, which is 27th in the NBA. The Celtics are 4th in the league in defensive rating with 107, and their offensive rating of 113.3 is ranked 4th. They are 17th in the NBA in pace with 99.5 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 53% is 16th. As a unit they are 12th in the league in true shooting percentage with 57% and they shoot 3-pointers on 39% of their shot attempts, ranking 14th in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's Heat/Celtics NBA game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Boston -2

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