Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction, 9/17/2020 NBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

Date: Thursday, September 17, 2020

Location: AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Boston -1

Total/Over-Under: 212

Goran Dragic and the Miami Heat are headed to AdventHealth Arena on Thursday where they'll meet the Boston Celtics. The odds on this contest have Boston as 1-point favorites. The O/U opens at 212.

Miami prevailed in Game 1 by a score of 117-114 in overtime. Dragic had a big game for the Heat, tallying 29 pts, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists. Jayson Tatum played well in defeat for Boston, collecting 30 points, 14 boards, and 5 dimes. 

The Heat are covering the spread 55.6% of the time, having gone 45-36-2 ATS. Boston covers the spread 61.3% of the time, going 49-31-4 against the spread.

Key Miami Heat Injuries

9/15/2020 Chris Silva PF Pelvis Expected to be out until at least Sep 19

Key Boston Celtics Injuries

9/15/2020 Javonte Green SG Knee Game Time Decision
9/15/2020 Gordon Hayward SF Ankle Game Time Decision

Player Spotlight

Goran Dragic comes into this contest averaging 16.2 points per game while playing 28.2 minutes per night this season. He pulls down 3.2 rebounds per game and dishes out 5.1 assists per game as well. His field goal percentage is 44% while his free throw percentage currently sits at 78%. Bam Adebayo averages 15.9 points per game in 33.6 minutes per contest this season. He averages 5.1 assists per contest and 10.2 rebounds per game. His field goal percentage is 56% for the year while his free throw percentage is 69%.

Player Spotlight

Jaylen Brown averages 20.3 points per game while playing 33.9 minutes per contest this year. He grabs 6.4 rebounds per game and has 2.1 assists per contest on the year. His field goal percentage is 48% and his free throw percentage is at 72%. Kemba Walker averages 20.4 points per game this season and he sees the court an average of 31.1 minutes per contest. He also averages 3.9 rebounds per contest and 4.8 assists per game. His field goal percentage is 43% and his free throw percentage is 86%.

Useful Team Statistics

Miami averages 112.0 points per contest this season, which ranks them 15th in the NBA. Their average scoring margin is 3.0 and their shooting percentage is 47% as a team, which has them ranked 8th. Behind the arc they shoot 38% which is good for 2nd in the league. They average 44.4 rebounds per game and 25.9 assists per game, which ranks them 17th and 5th in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they rank 13th with 14.9 per game. The Heat allow 109.1 points per game to their opponents which ranks them 10th in the league. They also allow a 45% shooting percentage and a 35% average from behind the arc, ranking them 7th and 6th in those defensive categories. Opponents average 42.5 rebounds a game which ranks 3rd and they give up 24.6 assists per contest, which puts them in 15th place in the league. They force 14.0 turnovers per game which ranks them 10th in the league.

Useful Team Statistics

Boston is 9th in the league with 113.7 points per game this year. They are 16th in the league in shooting at 46%, while their average scoring margin is 6.3. They shoot 36% from 3-point range, which is good for 12th in the NBA. They are 8th in the league in rebounding with 46.1 boards per game, and 25th in assists per contest with 23.0. The Celtics are 23rd in turnovers per game with 13.8. The Celtics surrender 107.3 points per contest, which ranks them 2nd in the NBA. Their defense allows a 44% shooting percentage and a 34% average from 3-point range, ranking them 4th and 2nd in those defensive statistics. They rank 2nd with 22.4 assists allowed per contest and 11th with 44.3 rebounds surrendered per game. The Celtics are 22nd in the NBA in forcing turnovers with 15.2 per game.

Advanced Statistics

The Heat are 7th in the league in defensive rating with 109.5, and their offensive rating of 112.5 is ranked 10th. They are 27th in the NBA in pace with 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 55% is 3rd. As a unit they are 1st in the league in true shooting percentage with 59% and they shoot 3-pointers on 42% of their shot attempts, ranking 7th in the NBA. Miami is 7th in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13.5 times per 100 possessions while forcing 12.6 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 52%, which is 20th in the NBA.

Advanced Statistics

Boston is 24th in the league in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 12.2 times per 100 possessions while forcing 13.5 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 51%, which is 27th in the NBA. The Celtics are 4th in the league in defensive rating with 107, and their offensive rating of 113.3 is ranked 4th. They are 17th in the NBA in pace with 99.5 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 53% is 16th. As a unit they are 12th in the league in true shooting percentage with 57% and they shoot 3-pointers on 39% of their shot attempts, ranking 14th in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's Heat/Celtics NBA game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Miami +1

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