Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat Prediction, 10/6/2020 NBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat

Date: Tuesday, October 6, 2020

Location: AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Los Angeles -5

Total/Over-Under: 217.5

AdventHealth Arena is the site where Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat will play the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. Los Angeles opens this matchup as 5-point favorites. The total has been set at 217.5.

The Heat were able to win their first game of the series and cut L.A.'s lead to 2-1 with a 115-104 win in Game 3. Jimmy Butler recorded a triple-double, tallying 40 points, 13 assists, and 11 boards. He outdueled LeBron James, who finished with 25 pts, 10 rebounds, and 8 dimes. This was a huge win for Miami, who were still missing Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo. Adebayo may be available for Game 4, so Miami could get a much needed weapon back.

The Lakers are covering the spread 52.9% of the time, having gone 46-41-2 ATS. Miami is covering 56.2% of the time, going 50-39-2 against the spread.

Key Los Angeles Lakers Injuries

No key injuries to report

Key Miami Heat Injuries

10/5/2020 Goran Dragic PG Foot Game Time Decision
10/5/2020 Gabe Vincent PG Knee Game Time Decision
10/5/2020 Bam Adebayo PF Neck Game Time Decision

Player Spotlight

LeBron James comes into this contest averaging 25.3 points per game while playing 34.6 minutes per night this season. He pulls down 7.8 rebounds per game and dishes out 10.2 assists per game as well. His field goal percentage is 49% while his free throw percentage currently sits at 69%. Kyle Kuzma averages 12.8 points per game in 25.0 minutes per contest this season. He averages 1.3 assists per contest and 4.5 rebounds per game. His field goal percentage is 44% for the year while his free throw percentage is 74%.

Player Spotlight

Jimmy Butler averages 19.9 points per game while playing 33.8 minutes per contest this year. He grabs 6.7 rebounds per game and has 6.0 assists per contest on the year. His field goal percentage is 46% and his free throw percentage is at 83%. Jae Crowder averages 10.5 points per game this season and he sees the court an average of 28.8 minutes per contest. He also averages 5.9 rebounds per contest and 2.5 assists per game. His field goal percentage is 40% and his free throw percentage is 78%.

Useful Team Statistics

Los Angeles averages 113.4 points per contest this season, which ranks them 11th in the NBA. Their average scoring margin is 5.8 and their shooting percentage is 48% as a team, which has them ranked 1st. Behind the arc they shoot 35% which is good for 22nd in the league. They average 45.7 rebounds per game and 25.4 assists per game, which ranks them 9th and 10th in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they rank 9th with 15.2 per game. The Lakers allow 107.6 points per game to their opponents which ranks them 4th in the league. They also allow a 45% shooting percentage and a 35% average from behind the arc, ranking them 8th and 8th in those defensive categories. Opponents average 42.3 rebounds a game which ranks 2nd and they give up 23.4 assists per contest, which puts them in 7th place in the league. They force 15.9 turnovers per game which ranks them 26th in the league.

Useful Team Statistics

Miami is 15th in the league with 112.0 points per game this year. They are 8th in the league in shooting at 47%, while their average scoring margin is 3.0. They shoot 38% from 3-point range, which is good for 2nd in the NBA. They are 17th in the league in rebounding with 44.4 boards per game, and 5th in assists per contest with 25.9. The Heat are 13th in turnovers per game with 14.9. The Heat surrender 109.1 points per contest, which ranks them 10th in the NBA. Their defense allows a 45% shooting percentage and a 35% average from 3-point range, ranking them 7th and 6th in those defensive statistics. They rank 15th with 24.6 assists allowed per contest and 3rd with 42.5 rebounds surrendered per game. The Heat are 10th in the NBA in forcing turnovers with 14.0 per game.

Advanced Statistics

The Lakers are 11th in the NBA in offensive rating with 112, and their defensive rating of 106.3 is ranked 3rd. In terms of pace they are 12th in the league with 100.9 possessions per 48 minutes, and their effective field goal percentage of 54% is 5th. As a team they are 10th in the NBA in true shooting percentage with 57% and they shoot 3-pointers on 36% of their shots, ranking 23rd in the league. Los Angeles is 9th in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13.3 times per 100 possessions while forcing 14.1 on the defensive end. Their defensive effective field goal percentage for the season currently is 52%, which is 24th in the league.

Advanced Statistics

Miami is 7th in the NBA in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13.5 times per 100 possessions while forcing 12.6 on the defensive end. Their defensive effective field goal percentage for the season currently is 52%, which is 20th in the league. The Heat are 7th in the NBA in offensive rating with 112.5, and their defensive rating of 109.5 is ranked 10th. In terms of pace they are 27th in the league with 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes, and their effective field goal percentage of 55% is 3rd. As a team they are 1st in the NBA in true shooting percentage with 59% and they shoot 3-pointers on 42% of their shots, ranking 7th in the league.

Who will win tonight's Lakers/Heat NBA game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Los Angeles -5

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